The Trumpanomic Effect: Part One

Now that the election is over and we know who the president is going to be, it is time now to analyze what I think will be one of the largest impacted areas of a Trump administration.

The economy.

As an investor I am now spending considerable time evaluating some of the promises that President-Elect Donald Trump made during his campaign as they apply to economic considerations. And what I see is enough to make me literally salivate. Of course, he is not yet in the White House, and the House and the Senate need to be onboard with any plans the Trump administration may lay before them. But there is a positive here if you have not noticed.

The republican party, and even some of the most staunch never Trumpers within the republican party are all now clearly and openly rallying in favor of the president-elect.

Seeing Ted Cruz moving in and out of Trump tower negotiating with both Trump and Pence and other members of the transition team, and hearing Cruz now speak to the American people about his now positive views on what Trump will offer is one thing. But Mitt Romney has also apparently moved on over to the Trump train as well, even after virtually calling for the election of Hillary Clinton early on in the campaign.

It's one thing that the GOP controls both the House and the Senate. It's entirely another that they are in support of the president-elect, and by all accounts, appear to also be entirely onboard with much of his agenda as well. Even Ted Cruz specified that Trump's overwhelming defeat of Clinton and the GOP win over democrats, despite what all thought would be considerable odds, defined a clear mandate by the American people that they want the campaign promises to be fulfilled. And if the GOP wants to maintain their power, they are going to have to deliver on that mandate or face their ouster come the next round of mid-term elections.

So, when it comes to the economy, it looks like we may see the ratification of a good number of some of the ideas that Trump offered to right the listing economic ship. And from an investors perspective, this means we may see some very interesting positive developments in the stock market going forward.

And by the way, it's not just the stock market that will benefit. If Trump can get done what he wants to do—especially in the first 100 days—of course American workers will see massive benefits as well. It's really not rocket science to understand that the underlying factor of more Americans working, even making higher wages, coupled with other factors are the benchmark of a strong economy.

Think of the impact of the middle class and my point is proved. When the middle class is vibrant and strong the economy flourishes. When the middle class is in jeopardy, the economy slips and falls.

One thing that seems clear to me is that if Trump can get done even half of what he advocated for during the campaign, we are going to see massive upswings in jobs, and even massive upswings in median income across the United States. I honestly believe that a whirlwind of economic growth is right around the corner, and if the economic policy put forth by the Trump administration looks anything like I think it will, we are headed for long term growth that may even make the undeniable success of Reaganomics pale by comparison.

In the following series I will outlay some of the factors that I think will spur on this economic growth, and the reasons I think they can be powerful enough to potentially uplift the American economy in very short time. I don't think we're looking at four or more years to see results here. I think we will begin to see results, actually, after just two years into the Trump administration. And in some ways if I am to be totally honest, even two years may be a conservative estimate.

Why?

Because if the American people can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and if there is a positive attitude toward what our economic future holds, this will reflect very early on (and in some cases is already being evidenced a mere 10 days after the election results) in how Americans react to it. Things to watch with abided attention are the U-6 unemployment figures, consumer confidence figures, retail sales, and the housing market—particularly housing starts as opposed to depletion of existing inventories.

My shortlist advice? You better have some cash lying around to toss into the markets, and I will be telling you where I will be putting a lot of mine, because waiting too long may well put you miles behind the curve once this thing really gets going.

I told you all along that Trump would win, and win big, and laid out all of the reasons I saw that coming. Now am I going to tell you that the economy is the next big winner, and will lay out all of the reasons why I see that coming as well.

Keystone Pipeline Passed

Before the start of the new year I sat down and wrote down some of my predictions for 2015, and as suspected, one big one came through. I wrote:

"With republicans back in power I believe that the Keystone Pipeline deal may be back on the table, but even if anything makes it to President Obama's desk, he will veto it. The Keystone Pipeline, however, will become a big part of the next presidential campaign, and actually believe that both the republican and democratic candidates will be in favor of approving it."

Part of that prediction came true yesterday when Congress passed the bill  270-152, which comprised of all but one Republican voting in favor of it, including 29 Democrats. The last part of that is equally important to note since 29 is a fairly good number for Democratic approval in the House, and I think the voting will have similar results in the Senate. While I cannot call this particularly strong support in Democratic circles it is, I think, still significant.

As predicted as well, President Obama has vowed to veto the bill once it crosses his desk, and I don't see him backing down from that.

The truth is that from day one this president has followed an agenda which I think runs contrary to his messaging throughout both campaigns, and quite frankly contrary to his messaging throughout his presidency. He said he wanted to fix the economy, help the middle class and the poor, and create jobs.

In many ways this bill, which has been sitting on the sidelines for all of his presidency could help to do all three of those things; particularly in the area of job creation and helping the middle class and the poor by potentially bringing more relief to Americans at the pump. The hardest hit by gas prices have of course been the middle class and the poor.

I still strongly believe that the Keystone Pipeline will eventually be approved, although I am not convinced it will ever happen during President Obama's watch. But I do believe that both presidential candidates from both sides will be in favor of approving the pipeline. It's a bill that just makes sense on a variety of levels, and like other things the president has turned his nose up at, this bill has the majority of Americans support.

Which might be another reason why Obama dislikes it. If the American people want something, he will be sure to make sure he goes the opposite direction.

Buying American Made Is Easier Than You Think

Every time I bring up the idea of buying more American made goods in order to help supply more cash to the American economy, and encourage businesses to identify demand for goods made in America, and essentially increase efforts to manufacture their products here, and provide more jobs to Americans who still are hard pressed to find meaningful work that pays workers good wages, I get met with dissent.

"Things cost too much to make it here," people say. "American companies cannot compete with lower wages in other countries."

I tend to find these accusations to be false. It sounds good. It's certainly what we have been led to believe by not only the companies who make things, but the government has touted this often as well, and always like to bring up the idea that this is a global economy, and that commerce with other countries is vitally important to the American economy and her people.

Yet the largest employer in the United States is currently Walmart, unemployment remains at considerably high levels, median income is down by nearly $4,000 per year per American, and for the last 30 or so years wages in America for the average worker has either declined, or been stagnant. The middle class is on their death bed, and the gap between the rich and the poor is ever widening.

The fact is that there are still things made in America, and they don't necessarily cost more than goods made elsewhere. It just takes a little extra time to look for things made here. Among some things still made in America, aside certain makes and models of automobiles, are socks, outdoor grills, water heaters, dishwashers and other appliances, plastic containers, glassware, cutlery, shoes, and many other items that people generally have a use for.

Consider something here that I find interesting. That is that there are approximately 300 million people living in America. If each and every American bought just $365 worth of American made goods, this would pour approximately $109.5 billion dollars into U.S. manufacturing. Not only would this provide an incentive for American companies, and even foreign companies, to do business here and employ Americans, but this would also assume that more money would be able to be collected by the IRS. More people working, making higher wages, and essentially having more buying power in the real economy means less people on the dole, less requirement for the government to engage in social programs which cost taxpayers huge dollar amounts, and at the end of the day this means more people able to afford any premiums that may be associated with American made versus foreign made goods.

In America it was fine at one time to think about benefits of globalization. Unfortunately I think we are seeing the proof is in the pudding that what globalization has largely done has been to cost Americans much needed work, benefits, and higher wages, and has forced Americans more than ever to struggle through their own financial woes with less ability to provide for their families and pursue their dreams, desires, and goals.

It's just $365 a year in American made goods. This generates $109.5 billion of revenue for American manufacturing. I think getting to a point where we think more and more about the importance of making things here, the more opportunity Americans will have to have to find American made products, and the easier it will be to slowly inch our way back up to doubling, and even tripling these numbers pouring into the American manufacturing sector of our economy.