The Next Market Run Could Last 20 Years: Here's Why I Think So

No one's talking about it—not that I've seen or heard anyway. But I think the stock market is on the brink of a massive, long term growth spurt. Despite any economic pressures we might face, this could last for at least the next 20 years.

Now, I admit, I have zero data to back this up. It's purely my gut feeling. And yes, I might be a little crazy. But hear me out: Two words.

Baby boomers.

I mean, think about it—if there's one group poised to rake in truckloads of cash, it's the baby boomers. And let me tell you, there are a lot of them out there.

Now, I'm not suggesting that every single baby boomer is going to glide into retirement with a golden parachute. We know the sobering statistics about many entering their golden years financially unprepared. But still, there's plenty to consider that teases the idea of a significant influx of spendable cash hitting the market over the next two decades.

How many billions—maybe even trillions—have been locked up in 401k plans since the 1980s, now coming due for distribution? What about all those pensions and Social Security checks being cashed in? And let's not forget the baby boomers downsizing their homes, unleashing loads of cash tied up in unrealized equity.

The money floodgates are about to open, folks. In fact, they might have already begun to flow. The stock market has been on an incredible tear for a long time, marking one of the longest bull runs in history. The money has to be coming from somewhere, and a good chunk of it might just be coming from baby boomers already.

It's worth keeping in mind as well that these baby boomers are well past their saving years. They've already done that and now they're ready to enjoy the fruits of their labors, which means they will likely be more freewheeling with their spending compared to those still working and saving for their futures.

They know they can't take their loot with them when they leave this Earth, so they're going to want to have a little fun while they can.

Again, let's not ignore the very real fact that many will still struggle through their retirement years. Those darned statistics. So, it won't be all fun and games for everyone. But that doesn't negate the fact that there's a lot of old money set to reenter the markets after being locked up for so long.

The money is coming. It's out there, sitting stagnant, with no choice but to be released.

It's not to suggest we should just throw the baby out with the bathwater and go all in and flood the markets with investable cash. It's simply something to consider about the future prospects and potential for more upside than we might typically see in the markets—the money has to go somewhere, and that means it has to be spent, and that means businesses will benefit from that spending and so will investors.

Maybe. Just maybe. But I have a strong sense it's probably true.

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© 2024 Jim Bauer

Beyond Warren Buffet

No one gets to live forever, but sometimes, depending on who you are, there are legacies that are left behind that never die. The legendary investor, perhaps of all time, Warren Buffet, the Oracle of Omaha, will be one of those people.

It's tough to think about. The end of an era of sorts. The loss of certain new wisdoms that could be shared that will be missed in future times different from yesterday.

I can see it now. Something happens in the financial world, and someone will undoubtedly ask, "What would Warren do?" He's 94, and just last year his right-hand man, the also legendary Charlie Munger, died at the age of 99, just 33 days shy of his 100th birthday.

The fracture has begun in the future of Berkshire Hathaway, the company that Buffet and Munger headed for nearly 50 years together. You could see it in the recent May 4th annual shareholder's meeting. It was still a meeting chock full of wit and wisdom Berkshire has become known for. But it was also a rather somber affair with Buffet looking to his left several times throughout it, where his successor Greg Abel now sat in the seat long held by Charlie Munger.

In one poignant moment he even called Greg by Charlie's name turning over a question to him on energy.

The thing is, Warren Buffet, along with Charlie Munger of course, were and are the heart and soul of the company they built together, taking a virtually defunct old textile mill and turning it into a massive conglomerate that owns businesses across several industries.

Many of which are household names, mind you. Businesses such as Fruit of the Loom, Duracell, GEICO, Dairy Queen, BNSF Railway and countless others. Over the years Berkshire Hathaway also became major shareholders in other household names like Coca-Cola, Apple and others.

Abel has been well groomed to take the lead, as Buffet and Munger were always quick to inform shareholders of. They have said many times that the core values and beliefs that drove their decisions for the company will remain long after they are gone.

That may be mostly true. But still, the company after Warren Buffet is gone from this world will still be a different company. It will still bear the name Berkshire Hathaway of course, and perhaps the core values and beliefs will indeed remain. But the heart and soul will be different. And of course, future shareholder meetings will not have nearly the same draw as when Buffet and Munger sat at the table sharing their thoughts and wisdom on the financial world and the state of their business.

If Warren Buffet is not at the table at next year's meeting, will shareholders have the same enthusiasm to attend what has largely become an event unlike any other shareholder meeting ever was before it? Because that was part of the draw too. Not just that Berkshire is and has always been a great company that has handsomely rewarded investors—attending the shareholder's meeting is like going to a carnival chock full of fun things to do as well as being entertaining and full of useful information.

When Warren and Charlie would speak, it wasn't just Berkshire Hathaway investors' ears that were perked. The entire financial world intently listened too.

The fracture is that one half of the team is now absent. Greg Abel, while able (pardon the slight pun there), is still not either of the two men who he will ultimately replace. Will he be able to share new ideas and wisdoms in the same way Buffet and Munger could?

I think hardly so.

I am not saying that when Buffet is gone that the company dies along with him. I am simply saying that the heart and soul which made Berkshire Hathaway special in its own unique way does.

Berkshire Hathaway essentially is, for all intents and purposes, extensions of the two brilliant minds who ran it. It wasn't just their company or their business. It was not just a path to untold riches, although they did accomplish that. It was akin to being their child. It was a labor of love that they were deeply connected to, I think in ways that most CEOs could never be except perhaps for founders.

Even founders become disconnected in many ways. Jeff Bezos no longer leads Amazon. Steve Jobs was ousted from Apple. Bill Gates no longer runs Microsoft.

That was never the case, nor was it ever going to be when it came to Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger. But it was also their approach that felt unique. And I hate to be talking in past tense terms since Warren is still here. But again, he's 94 you know. It was their love of the business itself which always took priority over the money.

The purpose was to create value. The product of that just so happened to be money.

You can hardly find anyone who would chide either Buffet or Munger. They weren't ever seen as overly rich or greedy. They were simply two men in business who happened to be very rich. They spoke to not only their shareholders. Their words laid heavily on the regular folks as well. Their words were always inspiring and transcended their riches. And they often spoke for the people.

Warren Buffet's legacy will live on forever. That is undeniable. I hope that this year's meeting was not the final chapter in a very long and fascinating story. But we know the day will come when both chairs are ultimately lacking the brilliance we have all come to associate with Berkshire Hathaway, the company.

And the company will never be the same when that day comes. Nor will the world be, I think.

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This Is NOT Obama's Economy

TO ALL OF THESE LIBERALS WHO ARE NOW TRYING TO LAY DOWN THE CLAIM THAT SOMEHOW FORMER PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GREAT ECONOMIC STATE WE ARE IN—let me just say very clearly and with great emphasis...

That is just a total load of frigging hogwash!

The fact of the matter is that Barack Obama was not able to achieve 2% GDP growth over his entire presidency. Not just that, but when you add in the words—and these are not verbatim—that President Obama said, "This is the new normal folks," fully suggesting that we would never, as a nation, see 3% growth again, it sort of helps to make it all too clear that Barack Obama had no frigging clue how to grow the economy.

If the president had any confidence whatsoever that his economic policies would ever allow the American economy to see the light of day the way it is now his words may have been more something along the lines of, "Folks, these things take time, but stick with me and my policies and we can grow the American economy eventually."

He may have even been able to toss in a little add-in to say, "It may be well after I leave office for my policies to really get going."

But the fact of the matter is that it is Trump's economy which has laid the foundation for the exciting economic boom we are seeing. Barack Obama simply had nothing whatsoever to do with it.

Look, I am as fair and honest as anyone. We all know that presidents are more beneficiaries of economies, good or bad, than drivers of them. But we also all know that policies and other actions presidents make can either help or stall an economy.

When President Trump pulled back thousands of business crippling regulations, this helped businesses to open themselves up to new opportunities, and free themselves of other expenses which they were able to redirect into growing their businesses, and passing some of those cost savings on to employees, shareholders, and yes...to consumers as well.

You add in the major tax cuts the president made, and you have a recipe for growth, which is being proven every single day with the economy hitting the ceiling.

Jobs are plentiful, the labor participation rate is showing major signs of improvement, retail is doing great, the stock market is soaring...

These are a direct result of the Trump administration. NOT the Obama administration.

Is it any shock that the liberals would take this stance regarding the success of the Trump administration's economic policy? It shouldn't be if it is. When Obama could not make any inroads it was all Bush's fault. For an entire eight years the Obama administration could not do a thing to get the economy moving. And when Trump accomplished this task, of course it would not be due to Trump, but due to Obama.

Again. What a load of utter hogwash! Guys, I'm sorry. But you simply cannot have it both ways. You are full of crap. You know it. We know it. Everyone knows it!