Still Long Ford Motor Company

THE TRUTH IS, I HAVE OWNED FORD STOCK OFF AND ON FOR SO MANY YEARS I HAVE LOST COUNT. But each time I have reached a point to get out, I am usually very well invested in the company. That simply means I am a "constant buyer" of Ford Motor Company stock. And currently where I hold those shares, I also have my dividends reinvested, and anyone who has spent any time in the markets surely understands and appreciates the power of compounding.

I won't bore you with the details of how compounding works, or the benefits of it. But you can surely look it up if you want to know what it is, and how it works FOR your investment.

I have to admit for at least the past two years I have questioned my position in Ford. I mean, the whole point to owning shares of any company is to make money, right. Not just in terms of those compounded dividends mind you. But you want to see gains as well on the underlying shares themselves.

But anyone watching Ford Motor Company stock over at least the past year knows all too well that at best, the stock has performed rather sideways. And, in my humble opinion, Ford stock has actually UNDERPERFORMED. For whatever reason it has just had difficulty getting a good footing in the stock market, and was extremely underlooked.

BUT, in many ways that also presents a bit of an opportunity. Why? Simply put, to some extent simply because the stock has been so neglected by investors, it seems apparent (and the math seems to suggest it) that based on the actual performance of the company itself, the stock has actually been—and for a terribly long time—UNDERBOUGHT.

That just simply means that if you are indeed buying shares during this period, you are getting shares at a relatively good price compared to what the real underlying value of the shares happens to be. They're just not trading there because either no one is paying attention, or no one cares.

Okay, there has been STILL some lingering trepidation from the whole bailout thing of days past that befell the auto industry in America. BUT, YOU WILL REMEMBER FORD MOTOR COMPANY NEVER GOT BAILED OUT unlike ALL others in the U.S. auto business.

GM, on the other hand, did in fact take the money offered to them in the bailout, but as far as stock performance goes they really never did suffer the same woes Ford has ever since. But that's for another day.

So why I am still long Ford even after considering selling my shares several times over the past three or four months?

I just KNOW what the stock is worth, and I tend to think that eventually so will the rest of the market. The fact is that Ford is still very low on the debt side, they have cash to spend, and they are still largely benefiting from the Mullaly days, AND from the downsizing they did, along with the renegotiations they conducted with the unions and so on and so forth.

But what was it that sealed it for me today to decide to continue to be long Ford for at least a while longer?

It was just recently announced that Ford remains the #1 seller of pickup trucks in America. The F-150 is simply, according to the buyers, the best truck on the road and the sales prove this year over year over year DESPITE THE JOKES. No truck outperforms a Ford truck. Simple as that. Otherwise, someone else in the pickup truck portion of the market would be fast on their heels. It's simply not the case, and so jokes be damned, Ford trucks are #1. Still.

But did you also know that for FOUR YEARS IN A ROW Ford is also the leader in auto sales among U.S. carmakers? It's true. They have the lead four years running. Granted, they may not have the best selling car in America. But for the past four years they have outsold in total volume the other U.S. car manufacturers.

That's not really a small deal, folks.

What's more, they have been in an ongoing effort to make their luxury line of Lincoln cars more of an experience, and they have been succeeding in doing that. Moreover, the styling of Lincoln cars is vastly improving. Although I do feel they still have some work to do here to overtake Cadillac, BMW, Mercedes, and let's not forget that MANY higher luxury lines have begun to make more strides in the marketplace to get their cars into the hands of more buyers who otherwise might not have been able to afford them.

Aston Martin for example. Certainly Mazerati and Jaguar have been doing this. Jaguar, by the way, used to be owned by Ford.

And the stock has had a recent amping up of share price. So FINALLY, after quite a long time the shares are starting to show some signs of life. Granted, that can be short lived as has been proven in the past when shares ran up to nearly $18 a share and then dropped significantly back down into the $9-$12 territory and stayed there.

But here's something else that strikes me. That's the recent passing of the new Trump tax law. Look, NO ONE else in the U.S. auto industry is better poised to take advantage of the tax breaks, and since they already have the best selling truck in America, and are the best selling U.S. car maker in America, with more and more Americans who will invariably have more money in their pockets to spend on cars, OF COURSE FORD MOTOR COMPANY IS GOING TO BE A STRONG BENEFICIARY OF THIS.

Bottom line is that I don't think Ford is out of the woods. Nor is their stock for that matter. This is a short term boost to their share price and I am not going to get ahead of myself thinking, "This is it. Now we go to the moon." But do I think Ford stock is headed for a newfound happy place? I do, and in full disclosure I am long Ford AND I intend to buy more shares within the next week.

I will be watching my Ford Motor Company stock very closely. But right now, based on what I know behind the scenes (all the math I won't bore you with), I see ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO SELL FORD MOTOR COMPANY shares right now. In fact, I'd BUY MORE.

Okay, okay...for those who want NUMBERS! I know you are out there. By 2nd quarter 2018 I see Ford's shares being traded for just under $16 per share. So for those who AREN'T privy to the quarters, that means that I predict Ford shares will be trading at just under $16 per share by the time my 45th birthday rolls around.

THAT'S JUNE 1ST FOLKS, AND I DO TAKE PAYPAL IF ANYONE WANTS TO SEND ME A PRESENT. 

Fear not. You can use some of your proceeds from Ford's rising valuation to send me a gift.

"I'm Drunk And I'm Driving."

If you heard someone telling you a story like this you'd probably think, "My God. That's a really tall tale." That is, a man spends his whole day drinking, and even somewhere along the line decided to swallow some methamphetamine as well, gets in his car drunk as a skunk, and then...

Wait for it...

Calls 911 to report himself drunk driving. Yes my friends, you have it right. Truth is stranger than fiction.

Florida resident Michael Lester did exactly this on New Year's Eve, calling into 911 to report that he was drunk driving. When the operator asked him for his location he basically stated he had no idea. He was too drunk to know. 

Not that he was really out to look after public safety from himself and his poor decision making. It appears that the man has a rather long rap sheet which includes previous DUI offenses, along with other crimes like hit and run, drugs, and battery. In fact, he actually at one point during the call told the 911 operator that he was driving around trying to get pulled over, even driving on the wrong side of the road several times.

Either way, he was off the street at least for the night, and it made for a pretty good story to boot. The cops who arrested him and the 911 operator who took the call will be telling this one for years to come at many a gathering.

A New Fox News?

PERHAPS THERE DOES INDEED NEED TO BE A "NEW" FOX NEWS IN THE NEWS MARKET. I thought I would never have said it, since Fox News has been a long-running, and quite frankly refreshing addition—in my opinion—the the news media. Especially when you consider that reporting has gone out the window, and most other "news" networks have become nothing more than the LIBERAL RAGS that their paper counterparts have become.

Think Washington Post, the New York Times, and of course there are local fare I am personally familiar with like the St. Louis Post Dispatch and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

I will grant you that it has been more difficult to watch Fox News for me since the departure of Bill 

O'Reilly. But Hannity remains, and he is a force to be sure. I'll be honest with you, I had my reservations at first about Tucker Carlson, but lately I tend to think he's holding his own and doing actually what I consider to be A DAMN GOOD JOB.

Fox & Friends is, of course, still standing as the #1 rated morning show in America, and that happens to be a good thing.

Thank you to Steve Doocy, Ainsley Earhardt, and Brian Kilmeade for keeping it real. 'Nuff said!

But here's the thing. Unless you have been parked under a rock somewhere, there HAS been talk that Disney is in talks to BUY FOX NEWS. Now, when you think of Disney what is the first liberal thought that comes to mind.

ESPN.

Now, you mean to tell me with a straight face that if Disney does in fact buy Fox News that somehow the ideology of Disney, and what they've turned ESPN into won't trickle into Fox news reporting, programming, and the CULTURE of people they'll put on the air?

I say this despite the obvious FAILURE of other liberal networks like MSNBC, CNN, and ESPN notwithstanding and my sense of business that why would you want to take a highly successful business model and highly profitable network into the realm of low ratings and low profits and falling viewership?

Well, it MAY WELL sound like a bit of conspiracy theory...but if they can silence the conservative voice of Fox News, they can make the other liberal networks more "relevant."

Arrive on scene Peter Thiel, a strong supporter of President Trump, and a co-founder of the PayPal empire. Not only does he feel that there is market for it, but all suggestions seem to indicate he also feels there is a need for it even if he has not come right out and said so.

Reportedly, Peter Thiel is looking into launching his own conservative network to compete with, and perhaps to rival behemoth Fox News.

What makes the whole thing more real? We have now learned that Thiel had some concerns earlier on, and was actually beginning to talk to former Fox guy, and now dead, Roger Ailes about the possibility, and even was suggesting they could pull over guys like O'Reilly and Hannity to the new network. Based on the "conversations," and the planned meeting that was to occur to occur just before Ailes died at 77, there is some indication that Ailes may have even been slated to head the thing.

What makes the whole story more interesting recently are the revelations about Steve Bannon, and the Mercers, who FUNDED Breitbart, and who are also supporters of Trump, who have now broken financial ties with Bannon based on his recent association with Michael Wolff who is publishing a Trump disparaging book with Bannon practically at the helm of it all. The Mercers are tied to Thiel.

Either way, I do have some serious concerns about Disney taking over Fox, and if they do, I think it may be just the right time to launch something to at least serve as a secondary source. But if Fox falls victim to liberalism as so many networks have under control of what is obviously a liberal company...

We can't get a new, conservative network up and running fast enough.

Massive Money In Online Ad Fraud

A FEW DAYS AGO I wrote about the annoying trend of websites who force you to click from page to page to page just to get through to the end of the article, and about all of those ads that load on each page...

AND THE JUMPITY, SCROLLY THING in the programming of the website that seems to want to force an accidental click of one of those ads.

You can read that commentary here if you wish to.

Because those websites invariably get paid for any of those clicks. Part of my suggestion was that advertisers must be going beserk because of all of these shenanigans since ideally they are paying for advertising, and CLICKS because what they are hoping for are ACTUAL BUYERS OF THEIR GOODS AND SERVICES.

Makes sense, right? Why else would you want to pay someone to share your wares unless you SHARE THEIR DOUGH.

wanted those who are being shared the wares to have some interest in what they are sharing, and

When I wrote the commentary I had completely forgotten about another aspect of the Internet. Click bots. Even better than causing an accidental click, why not just let a bot do the work for you? And that's what a ton of websites apparently happen to be doing.

Again, the question of why is a no-brainer. THEY ARE MAKING A TON OF MONEY DOING IT.

But did you know that there is actually a number placed on HOW MUCH MONEY is actually lost by marketers from online ad fraud caused by these actions? There actually is a number, and the amount might surprise you. It certainly surprised me!

DRUM ROLL PLEASE!

A marketing services company, WPP, did some study on this issue and found that the amount of money wasted on online fraud globally is somewhere around $16.4 billion. 

HW MUCH MONEY DOES $16.4 BILLION ADD UP TO? I thought I would do a fun little comparison since sometimes when you put a number into words, even with the word billion attached to end of it, it doesn't slam you in the gut quite as hard as if you put it into some kind of a comparison.

Stated well enough, at the current federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, with $16.4 billion you could employ 1,087,533 workers for a year full time. Yep. Put into words that's a staggering 1.08 million workers.

Is the practice illegal? That I don't know for sure. I would assume that it may well be. But let's not forget one detail about the Internet that lets so many people get away with so much using it for nefarious purposes.

It is harder to track people, easier to mask locations, and a lot of this activity is even done overseas—sometimes even in third world countries where even if you knew who these people were, the likelihood you would catch up to them and put them into handcuffs is highly unlikely.

In SOME instances it is even suggested that rogue governments like North Korea may even be involved in these sorts of activities. Where there is money to be had, you can bet a lot of people are going to try to get away with whatever they can.

Biden Can Win 'Overwhelmingly' Against Trump in 2020?

OKAY, SO OLD UNCLE JOE IS A LIKEABLE GUY. Albeit, based on a number of pictures that have made their course across the Internet, he's also a bit of a creepy old guy. In other words, as horrible as it may sound, keep him away from the kids and the damsels in general.

But, the question is can he win the presidency?

According to ex-DNC chair Ed Rendell, he seems to think so. In his words, "Biden is just the guy the country is looking for."

WHILE I APPLAUD ED RENDELL on his analysis, and while I do also believe that BIDEN WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A MUCH BETTER CHOICE THAN HILARY CLINTON AS THE FRONT RUNNER FOR THE DEMOCRAT PARTY in the last election, and MAY have even given Trump less of an edge, the fact remains that despite what the polls suggest, President Trump is still highly popular after one year into his presidency.

Add in the fact that despite what the lamestream news media will tell you, things are actually getting done, and Biden loses handily in 2020. 

And let's face it folks. The news is only going to get better. The fact is that you cannot argue with something very fundamental in the hearts and minds of the American people, and most importantly the AMERICAN VOTER. 

That's their pocketbooks and wallets if you want to know.

FOR ONE THING, THE NEW TAX LAW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW IT'S IMPACT AS EARLY AS FEBRUARY. That is, that's when the withholding tables are changed to reflect the recently passed new republican tax law. People are going to see a boost in their bottom lines come February, and if you think that won't be noticeable you are living on another planet.

Along with that, nobody can deny that so many economic standards are in territories that have not been seen for at least a decade, and I'd argue not in two of them, people HAVE TO ALREADY BE TAKING NOTICE THAT THE ECONOMY IS IN A MUCH BETTER PLACE THAN IT EVER WAS DURING THE OBAMA TERMS.

GDP is up, Hispanic unemployment is at historical lows, and so is the black unemployment rate. Consumer confidence is up. Jobs, especially in the manufacturing sector are making a bit of a comeback, and there are now more incentives than there have been in a very long time not only for American manufacturers to keep their shops open, but ADD OR REINTRODUCE SHOPS, and for some foreign companies, to LOCATE shops here.

Foxconn, which will be breaking ground in the near future in Wisconsin that will employ better than 13,000 people making over $50,000 a year on average, is a prime example of what's to come. They have never operated in the United States before. So this is quite an amazing development to say the least.

AND REALLY FOLKS, THAT'S JUST THE TIP OF THE ICEBURG. The fact is that there are going to be many more stories like that now that the corporate tax rate has been lowered to much favorable rates. Add in the reduction in costs for things like transporting those goods across oceans and you have a recipe well poised for success. And believe me, JOBS will follow, and Americans WILL take notice of the increased availability of not just jobs. But good ones that support families in terms of wages.

Furthermore then, what does Joe Biden have to run on? How is he going to support what will be the ever more clear failed economic policies of an administration he was part of, downplay what will be ever more clear SUCCESSFUL POLICIES in economic terms under Trump, and position himself as a strong contender better suited for the White House?

UNLESS SOMETHING DRAMATICALLY BAD HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND 2020, I think the only rightful conclusion for Joe Biden's viability in 2020, and for Ed Rendell's analysis is wishful thinking.

But it also highlights a continuing disconnect, in my opinion, of the democrat party from reality. They are still unable to acknowledge the real reasons Clinton lost, and they continue to disregard what are real accomplishments and achievements of the Trump administration. They are really disillusioned. They are living in a fantasy world.

Look. Do I think Biden would make a bad president? I'm not saying that. But I AM saying that I think what we are going to see after the first four years is said and done with Trump in the White House is a highly successful presidency with undeniable and provable results that even the most staunch liberals in the lamestream media are not going to be able to deny, much less cover up or slant in their usual way.

Can Biden win against Trump overwhelmingly in 2020? If I am basing the idea on anything current, the answer is a resounding no. Trump will serve two terms. And those two terms are going to be a successful presidency that will mimic former successes like Lincoln, Kennedy, Reagan, and okay...I'll give you Bill Clinton. You can't deny he was a successful president too.

BEYOND ALL THAT, I think based on his age alone, Biden will be a nominee if he decides to run, and I think he just might. But he will never be in the White House again. Trump's going to be too successful, and the clock is not on Biden's side. Just saying.