Iowa And New Hampshire Will Determine The Road to the White House: This Time

I am no Nostradamus and certainly there is no science behind my "gage of how things might go." Ergo, what most people refer to as predictions. But I am a bit of an analytical mind, taking bits and pieces of this here, and that there, and I think by doing that it is safe to say that I can at least draw a logical conclusion at the end of the day based on a variety of data. It was actually a little bit fun to look back on my Predictions For 2015 post to see how I fared. As one would suspect a couple predictions were spot on while others were close, and of course others never happened at all. Not even close.

I will admit that some of my predictions, perhaps even the one I am about to get into, are sometimes a bit tongue in cheek. Hey. Why not have a go at trying to lay out the details of the future. Political pundits, analysts, sports commentators, and stock market "gurus" all have their hand in a little bit of that and boy do they get paid regardless of their accuracy.

Don't even get me started on meteorologists for crying out loud!

But while we're at it, there is that "donate" button to the right, and of course one can click on my ads or buy something from Amazon. Ahem. But of course that suggestion is, as well, tongue in cheek. But if you happen to be so inclined... {enter a smiley emoticon here, or should that be a smiley emoticon with a tongue sticking out?}

Okay, okay Mr. Bauer. Can you just get the fuck ON WITH IT already? What the hell is this post even ABOUT?

Jeez. It's tough to be a windbag these days. Tough crowd. Very tough crowd.

So we know that for any political junkie such as myself the big Super Bowl of politics is right around the corner. The primaries. And first up is of course Iowa on February 1st. I won't get into how truly insignificant the first of these primaries really are even if for all intents and purposes they seem to always be true indicators of the political climate among the voting public. To those running for their shot at the White House, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are no small beans.

What we have here is an amazing set of circumstances. Of course we have an abysmally failed two terms with Barack Obama, and even those of us on the conservative side will readily admit that the last two years or so of Bush the 2nd weren't all that much to write home about either. So when it comes to politics, it's been one hell of a horrible, if not horrific 9 long years for the majority of the American people.

With roughly one year left to go before we can hopefully breathe a sigh of relief.

On the one hand you have Hillary Clinton who has been the "darling" of the democratic party since she lost the election to Barack Obama. She is also the "establishment" when it comes to the DNC. For the RNC we had Jeb Bush step to the stage, and easily one paying attention would have thought immediately, "That's it. That's the end of the race. It's Clinton vs. Bush. Deal done." While Clinton was able to maintain a commanding lead for much of her candidacy, and even before the running was official, once again an "outsider," or someone completely outside the box so to speak, is giving her a newfound run for her money. Bernie Sanders. Clinton is of course politics as usual, and she is not shy to tout the so-called "successes" of the Obama administration, and promises to not undue his policies, but strengthen and finish the work.

Code for, to my mind, "to further toss the Land of the Free into the garbage can forever."

The anomaly of Bernie Sanders' popularity is that of course there are many Americans who have not done better under Obama, and rather than cede that it's his policies that are largely to blame, they have taken the notion that it is instead big bad corporate America and the fat cats who populate it. Bernie Sanders is offering a fix for that. Take everyone at the top, grab them by their ankles, and start letting their change drop out while people scramble to take their "fair share." You'd be surprised how many people actually cheer that on—even if it also happens to be clear to any fair minded individual that it will do more harm than good.

So Bernie Sanders is the "on the other hand."

But there is, of course, also the extremely and undeniably popular Donald Trump on the other other hand. His approach is totally different than Sanders, and to him the blame for America's woes lies directly in contrast to Bernie's claim. It's not the fat cats. They have only been operating under the restrictions and controls of policy put into place by politicians; democrat AND republican by the way.

"Mr. Trump, you say that you are for America and American jobs yet your ties are made in China." How has Trump responded? Brilliantly and accurately actually. A smart businessman operates to make a profit, and right now policy and other factors make it more economical to have his ties made in China. Does he like it? No. Can he avoid it? No. The facts are the facts and the reality is the reality. But the fact that he fundamentally understands the reason it makes more sense to have his ties made in China also makes him qualified to come up with a solution and make it more economical to have his ties made here. Which he has stated often he would prefer by the way. Trump offers a contrast to the Sanders camp which is stark.

Make America great again not by taking from the rich and giving to the poor, not by trying to artificially create income equality, not by taking away incentive and opportunity nor punishing success, but to right some of the wrongs of YEARS of policy in Washington which have made it impossible for America to compete for better wages, better jobs, and to deny other countries advantages in trade against us which we have designed and fostered over the last three or four decades.

With early polls putting, at least on the republican side, all three outsiders in the lead—Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina—and with Bernie Sanders leading polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire one thing is crystal clear in this current race to the White House.

Politicians are out. Outsiders are in.

Bernie Sanders, in the most recent polls, is running roughly 9 points ahead of Clinton in Iowa. On the republican side it's Trump with an almost 11 point lead. Originally I thought Iowa winners would be Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton with Bernie Sanders and Trump taking New Hampshire. But I think, especially as we draw nearer to the actual first caucuses, that the winners will be Sanders and Trump in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And this may well be the case in South Carolina as well. I could be wrong. That's the nature of predictions, and of course things change.

But here is my bold prediction. Wow buddy, took you long enough to get here.

Winners in Iowa will be Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Same goes for New Hampshire. South Carolina I am going to predict a wild card. It probably goes the same way. Super Tuesday will be a mixed bag. But the ultimate result will be that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump may well be the nominees—because Clinton just has too much baggage and she's not as likeable as she is popular. This is America's race this time around. This is the ultimate question of our time. Do we want the world handed to us on a silver platter, or do we want to have to work for it?

But, Donald Trump is offering an alternative to the traditional means to that end. He wants to take away unfair trade which kills jobs and make it so that the fat cats can operate WITHIN our borders. He is not suggesting more of the same that traditionally republicans have fought for which in fact hinders the opportunity to have a fair shot at realizing the American dream.

I think this race comes down to Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. And who will be the next President of the United States?

Donald Trump.

As for his win? I think it will be a landslide.