Doesn't Nikki Haley Get It That It's Over?

The only thing keeping Nikki Haley in the GOP race to the nomination is the air that she breathes and a tenacious false hope that something, anything happens to suddenly thrust her into the lead. 

That's not going to happen, of course. We're just three days away from the South Carolina primary, the state where she once served as governor, and it's apparent and clear she will not win. She won't even come close.

Trump has a commanding 62% of support according to polls.

I give her credit for not backing down. That takes gumption. But I do wonder what her real motivation is. I mean, on the one hand you could say she truly believes she's the better choice for America on the Republican side than Trump. But if that were true, wouldn't the voters understand that? Wouldn't her campaign be successfully selling that?

When does she get the picture that the race has largely already been decided? And wouldn't it be better to just throw in the towel and offer her support to the presumptive winner? 

The key here, I think, is that when it comes to the Republican race as a whole, it's not about Trump. It's about Biden. We all know that is the guy who ultimately needs to be defeated at the end of the day. The country cannot survive another four years of Biden's disastrous policies, and we also can't survive the potential and real possibility that Kamala Harris becomes president.

Because we know full well, come death or the 25th amendment, that's coming. And while Biden is bad news, Kamala Harris is worse news. She's less fit to be president than Joe Biden is.

There are some suggesting that what Nikki Haley is doing is simply setting herself up for a strong run in 2028. And that may be her aim, here. At the same time, I don't think one does that by bashing Trump. If Trump wins in 2024, and I think he will, he could possibly gain even more support than he has now. Especially if his second term is successful. 

I believe it would be a highly successful presidency.

The candidate who stands the best chance of getting the nomination in 2028 is no doubt going to be a Trump candidate. While all of the former contenders in the early days of the race gave Trump a hard time, no one has been more critical of and harder on Trump than Nikki Haley.

And that will hurt her, I think.

Either way, she has already publicly announced that she expects to lose the South Carolina primary, but that she will not be dropping out, and believes she can still win the nomination. It's a bold prediction for her to assert considering she hasn't won anything at all yet. And it's highly likely she won't win a single primary.

The only way she gets the nomination is if it's given to her. And that's not happening either.

Like I said, I give her credit for her fortitude and ambition. But the race is over. It's been over. She's like the marathon runner still on the first block days after the second to last runner has already crossed the finish line. 

Even if she sticks it out to the end, the gain is for her own personal satisfaction, but serves no purpose for anyone else.

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Trader Joe's Is Culty But Okay

Trader Joe's is one of those places I feel has more of a cult-like following than actually offers "value" to customers, and that's not a diss on the place, mind you, but simply an observation. The first time I had ever been to one of their stores was probably 14 or 15 years ago when my wife and I lived in the Milwaukee area. They had one at the Bayshore Mall near Shorewood not that far from us.

People really talk it up, though. And I had been hearing a lot about it again for whatever reason so yesterday I thought, "Let's go and give it another look."

The store we went to was in the Brentwood area of St. Louis across the river from where we live now in Southern Illinois and was bigger than I remembered it to be the first time we went to one. I also did find the experience to be slightly better, but I was admittedly not much more impressed with the place than I was the first time either.

As I remembered it to be, it was a lot of organic and "healthy" hype, and the prices are still quite high compared to most other places I shop. I did notice the place was teeming with eager shoppers, though, piling all sorts of overpriced items gladly into their carts without a care in the world.

People like it, of course. There's a reason Trader Joe's has the following it does and continues to delight a certain group of shoppers. It is interesting to peruse some of the foods they offer, especially in the frozen aisle where they sell what I would call "restaurant fare in a bag or a box." 

We didn't buy much. Most of what they offer I can cook myself for much cheaper—even if something is a bit unique, it's not like I can't easily find a recipe online and go and get the ingredients and put it all together at a fraction of the price.

And what I would make at home would probably be healthier too despite Trader Joe's "healthy" angle.

It is among one of those places, as an investor, I would actually have some interest in investing in if it were publicly traded, partly exactly because of the trendy cult following it tends to have. Trader Joe's has a "hooked" audience who truly believe in Trader Joe's and would stop at nothing to shop there. 

There are many other places you can't say that about. That is what makes it interesting as a potential investment, of course.

All in all, I would say it was a bit "fun" to peruse the aisles. At the same time, we did not spend much. Only around $30. And we didn't get much for that. Just a couple of items. I don't think it will be 14 or 15 years before we return. But it also won't be often we will shop there. Maybe once or twice a year will be good enough for me.

After A Stellar Earnings Report, Why Did I Sell Texas Roadhouse?

When you invest in the stock market, there are any number of reasons you make a certain decision. Part of it is experience. Part of it is dependent upon what your strategy or objective was when you bought a particular company.

The reason I sometimes write about what I do in a particular moment regarding stocks is to offer an additional insight for anyone interested in the stock market as to things they may also want to consider as they dig in and learn.

It offers a real time example rather than necessarily gets into the rugged and sometimes confusing details that goes into explaining how things work, what things to look for and so on and so forth.

I sold my entire position in Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) today after it had a better-than-expected stellar earnings report, strong future guidance, and raised its dividend 11% from 55 cents per share to 61 cents per share.

So, why did I do that?

For one thing, Texas Roadhouse was a short-term position for me. I started buying in in July of 2023 and finished my buying in August of 2023. My average cost per share was $111.12.

When it comes to short term positions, I am looking for a 15% return. Generally, I will sell. However, I always think it is important to reevaluate my position when it reaches the return I am looking for. Sometimes I may get a signal to add more shares. Other times I get a signal to hold.

I got a signal to hold, and ultimately, just prior to the February 15th earnings call, my shares were already up 23%. I knew what the analysts were expecting, and nothing was signaling through trading activity that investors were expecting TXRH not to at least meet those expectations. 

The stock remained relatively neutral.

Had I seen an indication of investors expecting a less than acceptable earnings report, I would have expected the shares to fall just before the call.

That did not happen. So, I decided to sit it out a little longer and see what the earnings call brought. Like I said, it turned out to be an excellent earnings report and shortly after the call, the stock began to rally in after-market trading and continued on into the morning's pre-market trading on the 16th.

By 9:30am CST, the stock had jumped another 10% and rose nearly $15 per share. I sold with a hefty gain of 34%.

Here's the thing. I do strongly believe that Texas Roadhouse has more upside, and its next earnings report should support more upward momentum. But when rallies like this happen, and you hit new 52-week highs as TXRH did, it is highly likely that there will be a pullback and a new support level established.

A support level is simply a level at which buyers will tend to enter into a position or add to it. It is a level that, generally speaking, a stock will tend not to drop below. On the flip side, resistance is a level in which buyers tend to avoid a stock.

TXRH broke resistance by a lot, and so, it leaves an investor in a bit of a stuck place. We don't know what the valuation really is at this point. From my perspective, that's a good time to get out and wait until I can better assess what the stock price should be.

Because I think Texas Roadhouse will continue to perform well, it is one of those short-term positions I may very likely consider entering into again. But I need to do more due diligence before I can make that determination.

I will be looking for at least another 15% return, and I won't necessarily enter into a short-term position I do not believe can deliver on that.

In a situation like this one, I was happy to take my profits and move on to the next position I am interested in. I did also solidify some of the gains and put them into two other positions—one a long-term one and the other a short-term one. Realty Income (O) and Kraft Heinz (KHC). I also intend to add shares to another long-term position, Walmart (WMT), after the 3 for 1 split later this month.

Jim Bauer currently holds shares in all stocks mentioned herein except for TXRH. This blog is for entertainment purposes only and not intended to be financial advice. It is important to do your own due diligence or seek the assistance of a professional before making any financial decisions. Like what I write about or the way I write about it? Follow me on Facebook or X to keep up with all the latest writings wherever I may write them.

More Market Commentary from Jim Bauer

Is Walmart a Buying Opportunity?

Why Do I Hold Onto QYLD?

How To Live Off of Dividends

Amazon Continues To Blow It Out of the Park

Hey Catturd, the Running Mate Does Actually Matter This Time

Catturd, a social media influencer who has made quite a name for himself over the past 5 years sharing his conservative viewpoints on X, formerly known as Twitter, was recently in studio with Tucker Carlson on his Tucker Carlson Encounter show and was of the opinion, when asked who he thought Trump should pick as his running mate, that the Vice President doesn't really matter all that much.

Most of the time I find myself in agreement with much of what he says. And I mostly agree with him regarding his statement with Tucker Carlson as well. Except for one thing.

Trump can't run again in 2028.

He mentioned he likes Vivek Ramaswamy. Certainly, he's been saying many things people want to hear, and challenging the status quo in similar ways to Trump. But can he win in 2028? Would he be the one to carry on Trump's agenda and capture the hearts and minds of staunch Trump supporters?

Because that's, I think, what we (or rather, Trump) needs to strongly consider regarding who he ultimately picks as his running mate. Who can carry the torch at the end of Trump's final term? And win!

If it were Trump's first turn at bat, maybe it wouldn't matter as much. Much can be said about Pence as his first pick being questionable whether or not he wouldn't have been just another George H.W. Bush after Reagan. 

Ultimately, Pence, I think it is safe to say, didn't matter. Besides, he was a polar opposite of Trump anyway. Had the election gone the way we wanted it to in 2020, Trump would have had his second term, much of the agenda would have been in place and working, and things in place would have been harder to undo.

What the country needs more than anything, and very clearly is a major turnaround, and it needs to be one that can stick. And that means we need to have not only a strong four years ahead with a Trump administration, we need someone who sits in the office of the Vice President who can carry that turnaround into another eight years after Trump's final day in the White House.

Unfortunately, I think this rules out many current known members of the Republican party, especially even the ones who ran against him in the primaries.

In order for Trump's legacy to succeed him, whoever is set to take his reigns in 2028 needs to be someone who aligns well with Trump's plan and vision, and who has the tenacity and strength in which that all gets carried out, who can gain the appreciation and respect and support of Trump supporters in a way that those voters can have confidence that the successor will be the right man (or woman) for the job.

Maybe Ron DeSantis is that guy? Who knows? I have to say I was not very impressed with his campaign even if I continue to think he's been a fantastic governor.

Catturd has it mostly right. At least in theory. Vice Presidents don't usually matter. But this is a different set of circumstances in that this is not a consecutive term for Trump if he is elected back into office. This is the only four years we are going to get. And Trump needs to pick someone we can have confidence in to carry us through a strong 12-year run of leadership that hopefully permanently reverses the attempt of progressive politics to change America into an unrecognizable place that we may never be able to escape from.

The running mate matters more than ever right now.

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More and More, the Reasons to Question 2020 Grows Stronger

"Jim, don't you ever worry about looking like a fool for believing that the 2020 election was stolen?"

No. I don't. The thing is, for anyone who has followed any of my commentary on the issue, I have never said I believe that the election was stolen. What I have said is that I strongly suspect that the election was stolen.

"Why can't you just accept your loss and move on?"

Believe me. I would like to. In past elections I have done just that. Moved on. What makes 2020 hard to move on from are the details. I am an analytical guy. Things, for me, have to add up. Things have to make sense.

It should matter to someone on the other side of the aisle when I say, "This is the only election I have ever questioned in my lifetime." I am not questioning the election because Trump lost. I am not questioning the election because Biden won. I am questioning the election because there are too many details that simply form the question in my mind that lead me to strongly suspect something may not have been right, here.

My statement that this is the only election I have ever questioned matters because, as I have also said many times in the past, I am an American first before all else. Sure, I may be considered to be a staunch conservative Republican. But that's not something that is going to make me turn my back on my country.

Our system of electing presidents, of electing anyone, is an important part of the foundation of who we are as a country. As a people.

It needs to work for the people.

I can look back at any of the earlier elections I have seen in my lifetime and understand the wins and losses and can find reasons why they were wins or losses, even if I desired a different result. Most recently, the two Obama wins were obvious to me why they happened.

John McCain and Mitt Romney were less than desirable candidates who had no appeal and ran horrible campaigns.

Even when it came to George H.W. Bush, it was clear why he wasn't given a second term. He was not Ronald Reagan, for one. And his presidency did not deliver the results. Bill Clinton was the better choice in the eyes of the American people and his win made sense.

Whether or not Bill Clinton was better in terms of his policies can be open for debate. At the same time, even I can admit that four more years of George H.W. Bush would have left us in a worse situation than what we were left with after two terms of Bill Clinton.

It's obvious.

Which brings me back around to 2020. Did I want Trump to win? Of course I did. But not because he was a Republican. Not because he was my guy. I wanted him to win because I genuinely believe he did the work of the American people and was able to achieve righting the slightly listing ship that Obama left us with.

Biden was not the better choice. We didn't need an alternative like we did when George H.W. Bush ran for reelection. Or even back when Jimmy Carter was president for that matter. When we look at the two terms each of Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, it makes sense why they were all given two terms.

Trump should have been given two terms looking at his presidency—again, we didn't need an alternative.

I think in order to understand where the strong suspicion of a stolen election comes from, you have to start at the beginning. The idea of a stolen election, in other words, did not come from one day in November of 2020 and the result it presented.

It came from the four or five years leading up to the 2020 election and all of the things that happened during that time.

Trump talked a lot during his campaign in 2016 about the Deep State and about the Establishment. Things that, at another time, perhaps could have been overlooked as just fodder for powerful speeches. Only, you began to see it. Early on it wasn't as clear. But when the Republican party first considered denying Trump's nomination and looking for ways to deny it, it was the beginning of a head scratching moment.

Wait a minute. If the Republican voters decided Trump was their guy, WHY deny it? Why deny his nomination?

Ultimately, he was nominated, of course. But the question I think took its roots there. For anyone today who questions the election, that's where the question started to form. We may not have known it then. But we know it now.

Then there were the four years of accusations that the Russian's were colluded with. There was the denial by the Democrats of Trump's legitimacy as the President. There was the non-stop news cycle lambasting and ridiculing Trump at every turn. 

There were the impeachments.

All of these things were founding the question. They (the deep state and the establishment) wanted him out. And they were working very hard to find any way they could to do it.

And then the election happened, and Trump was out.

But, and this was a very big but here, how did it happen? When some people packed it in the night before as the results dragged on into the wee hours of the morning, Trump was winning. He almost had the election wrapped up. It was down to five states, and he was winning in all of them.

Until, that is, everyone woke up in the morning, and only after the mail-in ballots, a hot area of contention, were counted. Biden won. 

For many, without a doubt, it was of course a victory. But at the same time, and not only just on the Republican side, and not just with Trump supporters, it was a bit of a surprise. It was an absolute turnaround. 

When you looked at the results and saw that Donald Trump had gained voters—he received 11 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016—and Biden received the most votes ever in American history in an election, the growing question was getting some more juice.

Was Trump just that unpopular that he drove voters out to vote against him in record numbers? And there were the rallies to consider. While Trump was attracting throngs of people to them during his reelection campaign, Biden hardly campaigned at all.

There were the flags, and the hats, and the yard signs. 5 to 1 in support of Trump for President. You could see Trump supporters everywhere. You could hear them in breakrooms and in kitchens at gatherings across America. 

"I support Trump."

And yet, just like that, Biden claimed the victory. I think more people questioned what happened than the media would ever have us believe. But the results were in and that was that, and we were supposed to just lie down and accept it despite all of the questions. 

Questions, by the way that seemed only to deepen after the events that occurred on January 6th and the way it was portrayed, and the silencing of anyone who laid claim to the idea that something wasn't right. From shadow bans to outright bans on social media for even the suggestion that 2020 was stolen to the process beginning of also taking down anyone who made the claim. From investigations of wrongdoing to financially bankrupting anyone speaking out against 2020—the deep state and the establishment seemed hell bent on ending the question.

"Just accept the result," was the message being sent. "Or else."

You add in all of the events that have occurred against Trump up to now, and for a good many people it just adds fuel to the question, making it a much stronger one. Why are they trying so hard to get him out of the picture?

What does he know? What is his threat? And if he is to be believed by them to be as unpopular as "they" will have us believe they think he is, what do "they" have to worry about? If 81 million people said, "Biden's the guy and Trump is done," what's the threat? Why not just let him campaign and let the American people decide?

After all, he's unpopular, right? He lost, right? For good reason, right? People think he's dangerous, right? People even think he is ridiculous, as ridiculous as his claims of a stolen election, right?

Yet now he is winning. Much like he probably was in 2020. Much like I think many Americans were sure he'd get two terms.

Which brings us to all of the indictments and all of the other civil cases brought against him. The efforts to keep him off ballots. The unprecedented nature of all of these things, and it just begs the question harder. 

Did he actually lose the election?

Because if he did actually lose it, why are they trying so hard to drive that point home? Shouldn't it be obvious to the American people like it was obvious in every election before it? Why would it be necessary to try to send him to jail if the voice of the American people seems so clear in their minds? And how could it be that Trump is more popular than ever with such a strong chance of actually winning in 2024 if he was a liar who made such a horrendous false accusation back in 2020?

I think the answer is pretty clear. The infamous question of whether or not the election was stolen is a valid one to ask, and there is a strong indication that they, the deep state and the establishment, know there's a reason to ask it.

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