More Opinion by The Springboard

THE UPRISING OF THE AMERICAN PARTY "Clearly the voters are engaged right now, at least for sure on the republican side, and what they have concluded is that the republican party has not done their job. Thus, Donald Trump gets their vote."

Saturday, November 19, 2016

The Trumpanomic Effect: Part One

Now that the election is over and we know who the president is going to be, it is time now to analyze what I think will be one of the largest impacted areas of a Trump administration.

The economy.

As an investor I am now spending considerable time evaluating some of the promises that President-Elect Donald Trump made during his campaign as they apply to economic considerations. And what I see is enough to make me literally salivate. Of course, he is not yet in the White House, and the House and the Senate need to be onboard with any plans the Trump administration may lay before them. But there is a positive here if you have not noticed.

The republican party, and even some of the most staunch never Trumpers within the republican party are all now clearly and openly rallying in favor of the president-elect.

Seeing Ted Cruz moving in and out of Trump tower negotiating with both Trump and Pence and other members of the transition team, and hearing Cruz now speak to the American people about his now positive views on what Trump will offer is one thing. But Mitt Romney has also apparently moved on over to the Trump train as well, even after virtually calling for the election of Hillary Clinton early on in the campaign.

It's one thing that the GOP controls both the House and the Senate. It's entirely another that they are in support of the president-elect, and by all accounts, appear to also be entirely onboard with much of his agenda as well. Even Ted Cruz specified that Trump's overwhelming defeat of Clinton and the GOP win over democrats, despite what all thought would be considerable odds, defined a clear mandate by the American people that they want the campaign promises to be fulfilled. And if the GOP wants to maintain their power, they are going to have to deliver on that mandate or face their ouster come the next round of mid-term elections.

So, when it comes to the economy, it looks like we may see the ratification of a good number of some of the ideas that Trump offered to right the listing economic ship. And from an investors perspective, this means we may see some very interesting positive developments in the stock market going forward.

And by the way, it's not just the stock market that will benefit. If Trump can get done what he wants to do—especially in the first 100 days—of course American workers will see massive benefits as well. It's really not rocket science to understand that the underlying factor of more Americans working, even making higher wages, coupled with other factors are the benchmark of a strong economy.

Think of the impact of the middle class and my point is proved. When the middle class is vibrant and strong the economy flourishes. When the middle class is in jeopardy, the economy slips and falls.

One thing that seems clear to me is that if Trump can get done even half of what he advocated for during the campaign, we are going to see massive upswings in jobs, and even massive upswings in median income across the United States. I honestly believe that a whirlwind of economic growth is right around the corner, and if the economic policy put forth by the Trump administration looks anything like I think it will, we are headed for long term growth that may even make the undeniable success of Reaganomics pale by comparison.

In the following series I will outlay some of the factors that I think will spur on this economic growth, and the reasons I think they can be powerful enough to potentially uplift the American economy in very short time. I don't think we're looking at four or more years to see results here. I think we will begin to see results, actually, after just two years into the Trump administration. And in some ways if I am to be totally honest, even two years may be a conservative estimate.

Why?

Because if the American people can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and if there is a positive attitude toward what our economic future holds, this will reflect very early on (and in some cases is already being evidenced a mere 10 days after the election results) in how Americans react to it. Things to watch with abided attention are the U-6 unemployment figures, consumer confidence figures, retail sales, and the housing market—particularly housing starts as opposed to depletion of existing inventories.

My shortlist advice? You better have some cash lying around to toss into the markets, and I will be telling you where I will be putting a lot of mine, because waiting too long may well put you miles behind the curve once this thing really gets going.

I told you all along that Trump would win, and win big, and laid out all of the reasons I saw that coming. Now am I going to tell you that the economy is the next big winner, and will lay out all of the reasons why I see that coming as well.


Saturday, November 5, 2016

Why I Still Believe Trump Wins It All

Well, here we are. A mere four days before the fate of the nation will be determined by the American voter. And what do I think is going to happen? Of course, I think Donald J. Trump will become our 45th President of the United States. My belief that this will be the case has not changed, however it has been solidified by recent "revelations" about Hillary Clinton's emails. Why the quotations on the word? To my mind if you have been following the real news, these new "revelations" are more like affirmations. With clear indications that the Clinton camp rigged it's own nomination process, was complicit in hiding emails originally said to be benign correspondence about wedding preparations and yoga classes, and released information by the FBI that it is possible that at least five foreign intelligence agencies hacked those accounts and gained American secrets, no matter how much the media has worked to silence the news, shape the news, and mislead the American people in a concerted effort—the American people are a bit more privy this time around to what is going on. And while I am not a true believer in what the polls say, the massive swings following the announcement by the FBI that their investigation into Hillary Clinton was being reopened after discovering correspondence in Anthony Weiner's case clearly shows that Americans are paying way more attention than they have in the past.

I think the polls are still wrong, and by a lot by the way. But it's not the final number that matters. It's those massive swings that tell a story.

So where do I think all of these votes are going to come from to propel Donald J. Trump into the White House? For one thing, one has to wonder where all those Bernie supporters are going to go? Obviously it is now clear as a bell that the Clinton camp and the DNC all worked against his campaign—and not in the usual way which is the important part to consider. I think many of those Bernie supporters, even if they have been telling pollsters otherwise, are going to vote for Donald Trump on election day. Some may already have done that.

You also have the dynamic of the primary results which I think factor in, and that is the fact that during the republican primaries Trump received more votes in a republican primary than any other candidate in the history of the republican party. And it wasn't just by a few votes. It was massive. In fact, the win that Trump accomplished to receive the republican nomination was so massive that words like decimation, annihilation, and okay major ass kicking would all accurately describe how badly the other republican candidates on the stage were defeated. The thing that is important to understand about the importance of this alone is multi-fold, but rather simple actually.

  • In order for Donald Trump to have done this is to attract independents and democrats to the republican party.
  • Clearly voter enthusiasm for this candidate was as well, massive.
Voter enthusiasm and gaining the independent vote are essential to winning an election. And of course, one cannot ignore the rallies, and it is something I have been talking about for a while. The rallies are an important gauge on voter sentiment and the direction of the vote.

One clear thing to keep in mind is that of those people attending Trump's rallies, how many of them—or rather what percentage of them—are actually registered republicans? I'm going to say that many of them are not. In fact, I think many of them are in fact democrats, and certainly many of them are independents. You have to ask yourself the question, if those attendees of the Trump's rallies were largely republican, would the party have fought so hard initially against his nomination?

I hardly think so, especially because for years the party has longed for this kind of response to any candidate they've put before the American people. This time it just so happened to be someone who was not necessarily who they had hoped for.

Primary election results, voter enthusiasm, the republican party having record registrations, a very high percentage of democrats who have changed their vote or their registration during this election, the numbers of attendees at Trump rallies, and the ability of sources other than the traditional news outlets to share the truth about Hillary Clinton will all lead to Donald Trump winning the presidency. And while I cautiously suggest that he will win by a landslide...

I think Donald Trump just might indeed win by a landslide.