Trump's Support Only Grows Despite Denials

I am sometimes, or I should say often times, confused by how some people's minds work. And that's not meant to be an insult in any way. It is simply an observation that I think some people's minds simply aren't functioning properly.

Take this statement we hear all too often, "Trump is losing support."

Huh?

I mean, to believe that one would have to completely have their head buried literally in the sand. It is demonstrably untrue. I know many people want to believe it, of course. Facts are hard for some people to swallow and even harder for some people to accept.

Trump is GAINING support. And in droves.

Granted, you do have to take polls with a grain of salt most of the time. They just aren't necessarily reliable. At the same time, when they begin to show a pattern, you have to take them more seriously. At least on the surface.

Trump is winning.

What is more telling here is where the polls generally come from and the way most polls are weighted to favor Democrats. If these polls show Trump in the lead, it means more than when it showed Hillary Clinton was in the lead. 

BECAUSE the polls are weighted to favor Democrats.

And because the polls are weighted to favor Democrats, when X number of people say they are supporting Trump for president, it means that the number of people actually supporting Trump for president are much higher.

In other words, the polls may well be weighted to favor Democrats, but there comes a time when that extra weighting gets crushed by reality and the reality becomes more and more evident in the results.

President Biden's approval ratings across every single issue important to Americans are in the tank. Americans are not happy with what he's doing. It's clear as a bell. You can't hide it because the reality is just too strong right now.

You couple that with what the polls are showing regarding Trump winning in key swing states, that's telling. You match this information up with how strong his support among Republicans is, that's telling. You look at where Trump is fairing regarding his own approval on key issues, that's telling too.

Americans are overwhelmingly agreeing Trump is better equipped to deal with the economy. He is seen as the one who can fix the border crisis and deal with the crime issues. He is seen as the one who can better manage the current wars happening around the world.

Across the board, and among nearly every demographic, Trump is gaining support. He is also gaining the confidence of the American people.

Also telling is the growing, and I mean growing number of Americans who are now saying they believe something was not right about the 2020 election and are questioning what happened and who was really behind January 6th. There is also a growing number of Americans unhappy with the indictments and constant negative media reporting about Trump—they are rightly asking the question, how bad is this guy, really?

In other words, they are seeing through the smoke and mirrors and less than ever are buying into every story being told.

Still, some people refuse to believe it. They refuse to accept it. 

But Trump IS gaining support. Believe it or not. Accept it or not. The truth cannot be made into an untruth. 

In 2016 Trump got 63 million votes. In 2020 he got 74 million votes. That means 17.5% more people voted for him in 2020 than did in 2016. He gained support. He still lost, if we believe the results, but nonetheless, the argument could not be made that he lost support.

He had 8% of the black vote in 2016. He had 10% in 2020. It is estimated he has 11%-13% of it now. He gained black voters.

He is also polling well among women, college students and Hispanics. He is gaining support. 

This is not to say that his winning in the general come November is a shoo-in. I want to be very clear about that. And it is not to say we can necessarily trust the polls either. I am simply saying that Trump is stronger than ever and is just getting stronger, and no matter how many people want to deny it or not believe it, the reality is telling a much different story, and the polls can't bury the truth any more than the media is able to right now.

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More Blame From Crooked Hilary?

It never ceased to amaze me throughout Barack Obama's eight years in office his narcissistic ways. And yet, Hilary Clinton appears to suffer a similar syndrome which is made ever more evident with what is being reported to be the contents of her new book coming out in mid-September which is to bring forth her version of why she thinks she lost the election. The thing I marvel at is how much everything about the book seems to suggest that the devastating loss in the 2016 election was due to everyone else around her and had nothing to do with her. 

In the aftermath we have heard it all. It was uneducated deplorables. It was Bernie soaking up too much of what should have been her air in the room. It was James Comey. It was her team. It was bad advice from even Barack Obama which she said made her feel like she was in a straitjacket. It was the Russians.

Everyone but Hilary Clinton herself was the root cause of her epic failed presidential run.

It seems to me that people will still buy the book. Not because it is going to be informative or enlightening in any way, because we know all too well that is not going to be the case. People are going to buy the book for the same reason they might tune into Jerry Springer. You simply want to know what she is going to say even if you go into the whole thing with a clear head knowing it will be nothing but passing the buck and probably all-out lies to boot.

Some have suggested that Hilary's daughter may even be getting pegged for a possible future democratic run for president. Look, the one thing that is clear to me here is that a large part of the reason Hilary Clinton did not win has everything to do with who Hilary Clinton is. Yes, she is crooked as President Trump stated over and over again during his campaign. She's as crooked as they come. She was arrogant as was demonstrated time and time again from accounts from secret service agents when she was First Lady, to her time in office as Secretary of State using private servers and potentially compromising national security—because she felt she was above the law. The fact is that the Clinton's are done politically. So her daughter was stand no discernible chance at any time in the future for the highest office in the land.

The book is not one I will buy. I simply have no desire to read a bunch of worn out whining and complaining, deflection, woe-is-me, and whatever other bullshit she wants to spin with it. She's a piece of work. The people saw it. Voters responded. Trump won. Enough said.

As I said before, what is sad to me is that she doesn't get it. But luckily, apparently neither does the entire democrat party. That will help us in the mid-terms and help Trump to win handily again when he comes up for reelection.

Why I Still Believe Trump Wins It All

Well, here we are. A mere four days before the fate of the nation will be determined by the American voter. And what do I think is going to happen? Of course, I think Donald J. Trump will become our 45th President of the United States. My belief that this will be the case has not changed, however it has been solidified by recent "revelations" about Hillary Clinton's emails. Why the quotations on the word? To my mind if you have been following the real news, these new "revelations" are more like affirmations. With clear indications that the Clinton camp rigged it's own nomination process, was complicit in hiding emails originally said to be benign correspondence about wedding preparations and yoga classes, and released information by the FBI that it is possible that at least five foreign intelligence agencies hacked those accounts and gained American secrets, no matter how much the media has worked to silence the news, shape the news, and mislead the American people in a concerted effort—the American people are a bit more privy this time around to what is going on. And while I am not a true believer in what the polls say, the massive swings following the announcement by the FBI that their investigation into Hillary Clinton was being reopened after discovering correspondence in Anthony Weiner's case clearly shows that Americans are paying way more attention than they have in the past.

I think the polls are still wrong, and by a lot by the way. But it's not the final number that matters. It's those massive swings that tell a story.

So where do I think all of these votes are going to come from to propel Donald J. Trump into the White House? For one thing, one has to wonder where all those Bernie supporters are going to go? Obviously it is now clear as a bell that the Clinton camp and the DNC all worked against his campaign—and not in the usual way which is the important part to consider. I think many of those Bernie supporters, even if they have been telling pollsters otherwise, are going to vote for Donald Trump on election day. Some may already have done that.

You also have the dynamic of the primary results which I think factor in, and that is the fact that during the republican primaries Trump received more votes in a republican primary than any other candidate in the history of the republican party. And it wasn't just by a few votes. It was massive. In fact, the win that Trump accomplished to receive the republican nomination was so massive that words like decimation, annihilation, and okay major ass kicking would all accurately describe how badly the other republican candidates on the stage were defeated. The thing that is important to understand about the importance of this alone is multi-fold, but rather simple actually.

• In order for Donald Trump to have done this is to attract independents and democrats to the republican party.
• Clearly voter enthusiasm for this candidate was as well, massive.

Voter enthusiasm and gaining the independent vote are essential to winning an election. And of course, one cannot ignore the rallies, and it is something I have been talking about for a while. The rallies are an important gauge on voter sentiment and the direction of the vote.

One clear thing to keep in mind is that of those people attending Trump's rallies, how many of them—or rather what percentage of them—are actually registered republicans? I'm going to say that many of them are not. In fact, I think many of them are in fact democrats, and certainly many of them are independents. You have to ask yourself the question, if those attendees of the Trump's rallies were largely republican, would the party have fought so hard initially against his nomination?

I hardly think so, especially because for years the party has longed for this kind of response to any candidate they've put before the American people. This time it just so happened to be someone who was not necessarily who they had hoped for.

Primary election results, voter enthusiasm, the republican party having record registrations, a very high percentage of democrats who have changed their vote or their registration during this election, the numbers of attendees at Trump rallies, and the ability of sources other than the traditional news outlets to share the truth about Hillary Clinton will all lead to Donald Trump winning the presidency. And while I cautiously suggest that he will win by a landslide...

I think Donald Trump just might indeed win by a landslide.

The Uprising of the American Party?

These days, being a lifelong republican is met with some angst. Many times in the past I have written about the disarray of the democrat party and how that ultimately effects their standing with the voters, and of course, how it effects elections. But here we are, republicans, pretty much in a mess worse than I have ever seen on the democrat side. And what is it all about? Donald J. Trump, of course. He's absolutely frazzled the establishment—and frankly I don't think they know how to handle this. But it should be easily explained away for these guys if you ask me.

Why is Donald Trump, our nominee, resonating with the voters of our party?

Look, it's a simple thing really. I have long said that I do not feel a need for term limits in Congress and the Senate so long as the voters are engaged and paying attention. We have a system designed where it is the people's choice who stays or who goes when it comes to elections. The only reason term limits would be needed is when voters are pretty much tuned out, not paying attention, and just checking boxes at the polls without knowing what it is their elected officials accomplished...or did not accomplish.

Clearly the voters are engaged right now, at least for sure on the republican side, and what they have concluded is that the republican party has not done their job. Thus, Donald Trump gets their vote.

But yes, this is a time of angst. If you have paid attention to the republican party over the years the one thing many of us have argued is that we do not ever have a candidate that speaks directly to the people. We wind up with guys who look exactly like the tired and old stereotype of a typical republican. Old rich guys.

Granted, Trump is old. And he's rich.

But, he's Donald Trump. And say what you will about why Donald Trump is a household name for many Americans no matter which side they happen to be on, he has at least accomplished one major thing—he has tuned in many Americans to the electoral process who may have never bothered to care or tune in at all to.

So, he at least has our attention. Republicans and democrats and independents and non-voters alike mind you.

And because they (the American people) are now tuned in they now also realize an awful truth. Washington D.C. and all of these elites who reside there now, and who frankly have been there before them for many years, are screwing us over and good. And they have gotten away with it largely because no one was paying attention, and no one was there to bring it all to light. Donald Trump is saying to the American people what is wrong with the process, what is wrong with America, and why it is so important we all get it this time around and begin the long and daunting process toward real change. To start the process of restoring America to HER people as it was intended by our founders, and stop dead in their tracks the establishments on both sides to stack the deck and rig the whole kit and kaboodle to the detriment of everyone.

Americans rejoiced about change not so long ago when Obama made it his promise to bring it about. But he didn't change anything for the better, and unfortunately no one was paying attention to what he failed to do, and thus he was elected twice.

So, the republican party now has a guy at the forefront who is speaking to swaths of Americans, who is bringing new excitement to the electorate and bringing new-found interest to the party, but yet all they want to do is shut him down. Why? Because they don't like what he says, or how he says what he says. Look, the truth is that Donald Trump is more like you and I despite his billions of dollars in the bank than any career politician, and frankly I think this is one of the reasons why he scares the hell out the establishment the way he does, and why they are so eager to try to shut him down. He's an American. Dare I say an everyday American? When he speaks about economics, and when he speaks about wars, and when he speaks about back room deals in Washington he speaks like each and every one of us speaks in our break rooms, at our family gatherings, and in general to our friends. He says what is wrong, he does not parse his words, he does not spout off in terms no one can understand, and in ways that skirt the truth and make the ugly sound pretty. And again, this scares the hell out of the establishment because for years they have been able to use words in fancy ways to make the American public see things in a different light than the truth would lay out before them.

If you have a good thing going and no one is any the wiser, why throw a cog in the wheel to mess that up?

That's exactly what the establishment has had for years. A good thing. The people were none the wiser. And so long as they were none the wiser, why mess that up?

Trump is the bad guy, and the target of establishment republicans, because he threatens to mess up a good thing they have had going for years. That's why they want to shut him down. That's why they want to rally around Hillary Clinton, attacking Trump instead of her. Because Trump threatens their existence in a way no one before him really has. He's telling the American people the truth. He's shedding light on well hidden realities. He's engaging regular, working people like you and I. He's getting us, the American people, the average working Joe, to see that what politicians tell us, what they promise us, and what they do, and what the effects of lies, innuendo, and spin do to hurt us greatly with us virtually unaware it is even happening—but slowly. The pain comes slowly. The tactics and the policies and the fancy speak hurts us in calculated measure over time so that piece by piece, bit by bit, wrong by wrong, we simply get used to things as they are, and by the time things are so bad—we don't feel the pain as greatly. It has become the norm. It has become our way of life.

Surely the democrats have mastered that with the welfare state. 

It's like the mindset of an embezzler really. I can take a few pennies here and a few pennies there and no one really notices. The ones who get away with it are the smart embezzlers. The ones who get caught are the ones who grow impatient with the process of embezzling a little bit and then just go for broke. Politicians don't have to grow impatient. They control the process. For them they don't have to worry about getting noticed. There is nothing more friendly to an embezzler than the lack of an accountant. And for a politician, there is nothing more friendly than a voting public who is none the wiser.

Trump is the accountant who just walked in on a huge and long-time embezzlement.

And just take a look at who's who in the establishment now denouncing Trump—again—either directly or indirectly. Career politicians. Elites. Paul Ryan, the Bush family, and John McCain just to name a few. Go ahead and toss in the Romney family as well if you want to. These are family businesses...careers in politics. These are the embezzlers of our freedom and of our lives, stripping away one piece at a time, slowly but surely, but with calculation. And now someone has called their bluff. Now someone has shed light on their deeds, And now someone has the ear of the people.

Again, this scares the hell out of them.

The fact is that I am a republican. But I am also able to observe. I know what's going on and I don't like it. And that is why I can and do support Trump. Maybe it's not even a republican thing. Maybe that is just what I have been calling it all these years for lack of a better word. But I have checked the boxes just the same, and I had faith that the guys I sent to Washington with R's behind their names would do my bidding and make America a great place to live. I sent them there with the faith that they would right the wrongs of progressives and slam the door on liberal policies. I sent them there with faith that they would tell the American people the truth about why conservative principles worked better, and why anyone should rejoice in the implementation of conservative policy and ideology.

But they failed. And Trump is winning, at least when it comes to republicans. And he is dismantling the party. So being a republican these days is met with angst. Because I am angry as hell at my party and like so many American people are too. I am so angry that Trump resonates with me too. And I am angry that the republican party in all but denouncing Trump has shed light on the real corruption I denied was ever there within even my own beloved GOP. I am angry that it appears that the republican party, when all is said and done, really were no better than the democrats I so deplored were. I am angry that it appears that a two-party system is really just one party.

The political party.

And the rest of America be damned.

I am voting for Trump, now, not because he happens to the republican nominee. I am voting for Trump because I think he has the right plan to bring the country back to the people. Parties be damned. Republican, democrat, green party, libertarian, independent? To hell with all of that garbage. It's time to simply be an American.

Brokered Convention A Win For Hillary

So, we are of course still having to have the discussion, when it comes to the GOP convention in July, that there is a strong possibility of a brokered convention if Donald Trump, the clear front-runner in this presidential race, does not garner the 1,237 delegates he needs to seal the deal on the republican nomination. But why we are having this discussion at all is really the begging question, is it not?

In other circles someone commented to me that, "So you are okay if we break the rules for Trump if he doesn't get the required delegates?" I responded, and I think quite rightly, "Would we even be having this discussion if, say, Ted Cruz fell short of the 1,237 delegates before the convention?"

Of course that ended the discussion. Because the person who made that comment knows all too well that he would be okay if Ted Cruz, or anyone else for that matter, got the nomination without the required delegate count—but because we are talking about Trump here, that changes everything.

Because no matter how many times the GOP tries to give the impression it will support the front-runner, those of us who pay attention to what's between the lines know all too well if the GOP can find any way possible to deny Trump the nomination, that is exactly what they will do.

The thing that I find a little bit surprising here is that for years the republican party has been wanting desperately to find a candidate who can reach reach out and grasp hold of voters who might never even remotely consider voting for any republican candidate.

Donald Trump is doing that.

He is getting support from evangelicals and non-evangelicals alike. He is getting broad support (believe it or not) from women. He is getting broad support from (again, believe it or not) Hispanics. And while he may be falling a little bit short garnering support from blacks, there are still wide swaths of other demographics he is pulling toward the republican party that the party itself has not been able to do for a very long time.

He's even pulling in democrats.

There is another very big factor to keep in mind here and that is that Trump has also provided the republican party a huge (or should I say yuge?) increase in voter enthusiasm and voter turnout—when you look at voter turnout as a whole, enthusiasm and turnout is up 65% for republicans and down 45% for democrats.

How did Barack Obama win, partly? Voter turnout. Voter enthusiasm. Voters all but fell over themselves to get to the polls, and of course there were great efforts by PACs and other groups to load up buses and get voters to the polls to check the box for Obama.

Without a doubt Mitt Romney screwed the pooch on the campaign trail and I lay that down easily as a large contributing factor to his defeat, albeit a nominal defeat, by what was clearly a failed incumbent president. But you can also attribute low voter turnout as a large reason why Romney could not fill the gap. Many republicans were so unenthusiastic, and so not smitten with Romney as the candidate, that they just stayed home. If even a fraction of those people would have gone to the polls, it may have sent Obama packing.

I think even the GOP has to know that, in part, this is precisely why they did not win the last election.

So along comes Trump and gets the juices flowing. It may not be the guy that the republican party had hoped for to bring this along. But nobody else has been able to do it. And instead of embrace the victory this is, they only want to trounce Trump, stay the course, and disenfranchise large swathes of the very voters they have been trying to attract that Trump has attracted. Hell, he has practically laid these voters at the very doorstep of the republican convention.

Of course part of the problem the GOP and other republican and conservative voters have is that he's too brash, he's offensive, he's inexperienced, he's unrealistic, and whatever other word one can derive to relate to, "He will destroy America and bombs will fly."

Horse pockey.

The fact is that Trump is doing exactly what every single other politician has done before him—and I think we can now safely call Trump a politician. Donald Trump is telling the American people what they want to hear. It's that simple. And it is resonating and that is why the voting public is responding the way they are.

Read my lips, no new taxes. You can keep your doctor. We will attack pork barrel spending...

All of a sudden we are actually believing that everything a politician says he will do will actually be done? I mean, really. Are we really trying to say that here? We're trying to say this with a straight face?

When Donald Trump gets into the White House, if that is what happens, he will face the same realities and the same challenges as every single president always does. Not only that, but what defines an administration's accomplishments or failures is also largely dictated by what the focus of the day happens to be. Things happen, things occur in the world that cause presidents to have to shift focus, and of course there are multitudes of people that will surround any president and provide him or her with whatever current intelligence on a variety of issues happens to be...

And with reality front and center courses change.

Why would Trump be any different? I mean, don't get me wrong, he has my support in large part because he will do some things differently to my mind. But there are myriad things he won't do just because he can't, or because there will be enough smart minds surrounding him to give him some very important statistics and data and examinations into what the real and true impact may be of anything he has proposed. And like all president's do, he will change course.

Look, the bottom line for me is that if Trump gets the nomination we may lose the general election. Okay fine. Or we may not. Who really knows, right? Polls have been wrong, pundits have been wrong. It's always so easy to try and make an idea a truth when we all know it's not. But a few things are certain to lose the general and ensure Hillary winds up in the White House. To my mind, and without any doubt, one of those things is to broker the republican convention. If the GOP actually denies Trump the nomination no matter if he has the 1,237 delegates or not, there will be far more anger from the voting public than ever before that their voice is not being heard, that the establishment is rigging outcomes, and that the American people are sheep while the government and all of the power-mongers within the system don't give a flying rats ass about what the people want.

Precisely, by the way, one of the reasons that right now a guy like Trump is blowing it out of the park.

At the end of the day I think we should simply be looking at who out of the remaining three candidates have the most delegates (or two if Kasich finally comes to his senses that he has no chance of winning) and say okay. That's the nominee. Because otherwise what is all this other process about? Why did we waste our time with campaigns at all? Why did we bother to go before the American people and see what they think about who is running? Why waste time with all that if at the end of the day it doesn't matter, and no matter who the PEOPLE want it comes down who the PARTY wants?

We MUST Fix The Economy or Die

In business there are two realities; the way things should be, and the way things are. But at the end of the day what business is intended to do is to make as much money as possible, principally for the owners of the company. So you can't blame corporations for going overseas for labor if the balance sheets tell you that it just makes good business sense.

For years I have railed against the imbalances in our free market system, and that's saying something since I happen to be a strong proponent of the free market. But what I have argued is that what we have now is not really a free market at all. It's a market that is rigged and it's not necessarily because of the businesses, but because of policy which has made myriad deals with other nations which have served to suffocate the American worker, kill the middle class, widen the gap between the rich and the poor, and simply make our economy a real sour lemon.

I have long held that the key to the continuity of American progress economically is that we have to make things. Back in the day cheaper was a novelty. It was a convenience. People were making good money, and cheaper goods meant they could make it go farther. Now cheaper is a necessity. Median income has been nearly unchanged for the past 30 years—and that's a problem because inflation has not been stagnant.

You want to do the right thing and keep as much of your operations in the United States as possible. But when there are a multitude of things that hinder the sensibility of doing that, you are forced to rethink things and just "go with the flow."

Taxes, regulations, cheap labor overseas, unruly union leaders...

All of these things make it difficult for a business to operate within the margins and compete, not

only with foreign businesses doing business in the United States, but to compete with companies operating within its own borders.

Who knows this better than anyone? Businessmen. If you leave this sort of thing up to people who have never been in business what you wind up with are good intentions that look good in theory and on paper, but when put into reality it becomes clear to see that it's more than just a mess. It's a fucking disaster.

The simple truth is that both establishment republicans and democrats alike simply don't know what's wrong, and therefore don't really have the right solutions for fixing the problem. The democrats want to point fingers at the rich and big business, and want to tout unions who at one time had their place in the world, but are now corrupt and hugely bad for business, and who have done as much damage—if not more—to the stability of the American workers' wages than even the worst trade deals. And there are, of course, the trade deals, largely supported by the republican party in the interest of the free markets, which again, I argue aren't operating like a true free market at all.

Going with the "status quo" simply is not going to get it done. It's a failing proposition, and I think in part it is a large reason Donald Trump is getting so much traction in this presidential race. On the flip side, it may also be a part of why even a guy like Bernie Sanders at any stage in this race could ever be perceived by anyone to be viable—even for progressive liberal democrats. The signal, which is very clear, is that if guys like Sanders and Trump are resonating with voters it is because the majority of Americans—even if they are unclear exactly why—are finally starting to understand that they are no longer even running in place. They are going backwards. And if and until we address this matter, and right quick, it may be impossible to gain any traction economically.

Anyone who has ever had even a little bit of credit card debt knows that it is much harder to get out of debt the deeper in debt you go. If our economy is not fixed now. If the trade imbalances are not fixed now. If the trade deals are not renegotiated now...

We could lose our standing in the world as an economic power, and we may never get it back. Even if we finally work toward that goal, our country would be a second or third tier nation economically for the next 50-100 years.

Unfortunately, and I am a republican mind you, none of the other guys on the stage—not a single one of them except for Donald Trump—will do a damn thing to address the meat of why the economy is largely in the state that it is in.

Granted, Trump may not be able to get anything done either. I get that. But of all of the other candidates on the stage, he is the only guy stating what I have believed for years when it comes to jobs and business and the stability of the American economy.

Cheap labor has us by the balls and our hands our tied behind our backs so we can't loosen the grip.

But it's not just the cheap labor. It is simply a component. It's those fucking trade deals. The one thing we know of our history is that back in the day we knew there would be differences between one economy and another, and in order to level the playing field we made adjustments—tariffs. We have long gotten ridden of correcting imbalances by opening up Most Favored Nation status with countries like China. We've widened imbalances with deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)—George H.W. Bush pushed for it, and Clinton eventually signed it into law—and the most recent Trans-Pacific deal. We have allowed Japan to dictate what we can sell to them, and likewise China. We have allowed China, in fact, to tell us flat out "if you want to sell to us, you have to make it in China."

What America has become, and not just in terms of economics, is a giant sell out, and who has been hurt badly by this is us. The American people. And despite our ability to vote our leaders in or out, we really have not had much control on this issue. We've had to simply do what is necessary. But again, continuing along that path puts us in a very real and dangerous situation. We are at that certain turning point in our nation on this issue among other very important ones. It's do or die. We simply must get it right this time around. If we do not, America as we know it may well be lost forever.

Trump: South Carolina And Beyond

I am not sure I will classify the Trump victory in South Carolina as necessarily a commanding lead. But the fact remains that Trump's win was by a margin of 10% over the second place winner Marco Rubio, and of course one of Trump's biggest critics, Jeb Bush, is no longer in the race. We have the Nevada primary coming up this coming Tuesday, and of course the big tell, Super Tuesday, is on March 1st. Something tells me that even if Trump doesn't win in Nevada, although he is predicted to win—again by a double digit margin—I think he will do very well when all of the numbers are in on Super Tuesday. And of course the field is going to narrow after Nevada's Tuesday primary, and by the time we get to the final call after Super Tuesday I think we'll be down to three candidates.

Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz. If Kasich's numbers don't add up in Nevada I think he'll drop out. So, perhaps, will Ben Carson.

In my opinion it is still too early to necessarily predicate on the idea that The Donald is an unstoppable force. But if we are looking at just the margins over the course of the campaigns, Trump at least appears to be the presumed nominee. The thought that crosses my mind is how can Trump have his Howard Dean moment in this race? He's said some fairly nasty things, and he said some things in the CBS debate just before the South Carolina primary that not only did not resonate with me, it rubbed a lot of voters the wrong way.

Yet he still won, and it wasn't really all that close actually.

If Donald J. Trump takes home the prize on Super Tuesday I think we can safely assume the republican voters in the caucuses have chosen who they want to see run against whoever is going to be the nominee on the democratic side—who I still think will be Hillary Clinton when all is said and done, and I am fine with that.

When I talk to most of my fellow republicans and conservatives of course I am chastised every which way but Sunday when I mention that I actually am rooting for Trump. Why do I like the guy?

•  He holds nothing back and takes no prisoners.
• He is the ONLY guy I think will actually address immigration reform even if I do not think he will be successful in having Mexico pay for the wall.
• He is the ONLY guy who I think understands fundamentally that trade is good, free market capitalism is good, but that we also have a rigged system that has stacked the deck in favor of OTHER nations while leaving American workers behind.
• Therefore Donald Trump is the ONLY one who is actually going to begin the process of renegotiating trade deals and ultimately to bring back jobs to American workers who badly need better than Walmart jobs to feed their families and pursue the dying American dream.
• He is deeply concerned about the advancement of ISIS, the instability in the Middle East, and takes seriously the very real threat of terrorism in the Homeland.

On the last point, I think all of the candidates left in the race have serious concerns about terrorism as well, and aside from Bush

who I thought was extremely weak on the subject, I think all three top tier candidates—Trump, Rubio, and Cruz—would all take steps to curb the threat from Islamic Jihadists. Trump may take the strongest stance however, and with that said, I do think that while Trump has good intentions, on this issue at least, he is going to have to surround himself with the best military and foreign relations people to get his head wrapped around a strategy that will work, that will circumvent unintended consequences, and that will not cause more damage in an already sticky situation.

The one thing that does sort of twist the knife if you'll let me put it that way is that while Trump is getting all the attention on the republican side, the fact remains that where Trump has missed the mark is on substance. He's missed the how's and the why's and how come's. And I think in a general election this detail is extremely important. When Trump gets to the big stage alongside Hillary Clinton who, love her or hate her, has command of her policy, and is well spoken, Trump cannot rely on personal attacks to get the attention of the American people. He has to shred every single idea and statement that Hillary puts forth. He has to command every single issue. He needs to explain in detail why his policies would work, and why he thinks Hillary's would fail. He has to be tough on Barack Obama and his failed policies, which of course Hillary will tout as grand successes, but not just by saying the president was weak or incompetent, but by explaining in detail why he believes the president's policies were bad, how they affected the American people, and if continued how they will continue to affect the American people.

Substance, at the end of the day, is the one thing Trump has lacked throughout the campaign, and the only thing that gives me pause when deciding whether or not even I—a Trump supporter—can ultimately pull the trigger if I were to vote today. Can Donald Trump have a moment like he had with Jeb Bush in the CBS debate where he called former president Bush a liar in a debate with Clinton? I don't think so. I don't think that kind of an exchange would go over very well at all. Although, I do think he can be tough on the issue of Benghazi—but again the approach as to how you do this needs to be careful and calculated. It can't just be name calling and flame throwing. That won't work in a general election.

So all said I give Trump great props for a job well done up to this point, and frankly because of the bullet point issues I am concerned about personally, would love to see him go all the way and get these important things done like nobody else can or will. But as we draw nearer to the strong likelihood that he actually wins the nomination, he really needs to begin the process now of filling in the blanks, and giving us more than what he has given us in the past—he needs to give us the how's and why's and how come's we've been dying to hear.

Because one thing is certain. Hillary will explain her stuff, and whether it is right or wrong, if Trump can't explain his, hers just sounds more thought out and sometimes reality is not what counts. Perspective is everything, and if Trump is perceived as one who doesn't know his way around things, it will cost him the election without a doubt.

Tread Carefully, GOP

Time and time again I have commented that love him or hate him, Trump is leading the charge when it comes to the republican party's race to the White House. Sure, the guy is definitely not what we are used to when it comes to presidential hopefuls. He's crass, abrasive, a bit in-your-face, and I fully understand why some people may find this more than a bit troubling considering the power he might have at his fingertips.

Even I have some doubts of my own. But I am also considering his underlying message, and carefully reviewing the things he has said he wants to do, and trying to determine if there is any credibility there to answer the very important question.

Can he do these things? Of the "crazier" ideas, what is more likely to be in the realm of possibility?

We all know that presidential hopefuls, heedless of what side they are on, want to do a lot of things, and certainly promise to do a lot of things. Whether or not they can actually get anything done depends largely on the ability of presidents to get the House and Senate on their side.

One thing that can be said of Trump? Something he does very well and makes no apologies for? Ruffling feathers. And lately it seems that he's ruffling quite a few feathers in the establishment republican party. It seems to be becoming more and more clear the republican party is more than surprised by how well he's doing in all the polls, leading by miles ahead of the other hopefuls aside from Senator Ted Cruz who is his closest runner to date. It's also clear that many within the establishment GOP strongly felt that Trump would simply be a sideshow that would be fun for a little while, but then quickly fade while the party could get on with its real campaign for the White House.

That has not happened, and the Trump storm does not seem to be slowing at all. In fact, its pace is picking up.

Now New Hampshire is trying to deny that Trump even belongs on the ballot in their primary, citing lack of evidence that Trump is actually registered as a republican. To steal a line from what may well be Trump's opponent on the other side should he win the nomination, "What difference, at this point, does it make?"

Donald Trump has said all along that he will honor whoever happens to be the nominee, and has said that if it's not him, he won't run as an independent. That is unless he happens to be in the lead and is still not nominated. Then it's his choice to do what he wants, because clearly if he is the front runner and is not the nominee, something is rotten at the core of that. The republican party seems to be trying to quietly suggest Trump should not be the nominee, and that the opportunity should go to a "real" republican contender.

The GOP would be wise to not underestimate what is going on here.

I have spoken multiple times about the changing demographic and dynamics of this race on both sides. All signs seem to point that this particular presidential election may be historical in more ways than one. If one thing is certain, and I have said this before, part of Trump's popularity is in fact his distancing himself from the republican party while still running as a republican, and the fact that he is running against the government's business as usual—and that's significant when you consider that the American people are more and more becoming distrustful of their government, and their elected officials. The people are not looking for a politician this time around. At least, that's the take away from the current dynamic. That does not mean it will remain so, and no one can absolutely discount Hillary Clinton yet.

Any effort the republican party tries to make to unseat Trump could well be their very undoing. Nothing will supplant in the minds of voters more dissent for partisan politics and business as usual than denying a clear front runner a nomination. And if Trump resorts to running as an independent, he may well actually still get into the White House anyway.

The republican party needs to follow the voice of the voters. The voice of the people. And they need to be aware that regardless of what the establishment thinks of the guy out front...they also cannot deny that what puts him there is the voters—and can't we all agree that a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, and the body of people who ultimately help to choose our leaders, need to cognizant and appreciative of what the people want?

Trump may well fall on his own. But that's not something the republican party should be fostering prematurely, or potentially taking steps to decide his fate on their own. If Trump is going to win and become president, I don't think it is going to matter to the voters whether he is an independent or a republican. It's going to matter only whether or not he is the people's choice.

The Dynamics in 2016 May Be Why Trump Wins

The other day I spoke a little bit about history having a tendency to follow the future when it comes to elections and politics in general, and how I felt that due to some historical and current data it strongly suggests that Hillary Clinton cannot win the upcoming presidential election. I stand by the arguments I made for my case on that. But there is something else that we know about history when it comes to primaries and who ultimately winds up winning nominations; The front runners rarely become the nominee.

I also talked a bit about some changing demographics and dynamics in this election cycle which could have at least some influence on things. For much the same reasons I believe those changing demographics and dynamics hurt Hillary's chances, I think they bolster Trump's.

For all intents and purposes you could say that Hillary Clinton has been the front runner for her party's nomination for at least the past four years and running. Despite her obvious troubles I don't see anyone emerging in the democratic party who stands a chance of unseating her strong lead within her party.

Hillary Clinton will be the democratic nominee for president without a doubt.

I am beginning to think that when it comes to who the republican nominee will be, it will be Donald Trump. He is going to manage to buck the trend that suggests that someone would ultimately otherwise knock him out of first place. And again, it is that changing demographic and dynamic that will help him maintain his lead. One of the brilliant things Trump has managed to do throughout his campaign, and continues to do to this day, is run against even his own party. He's running as much as an independent as he is running as a republican, and this just happens to be resonating with the electorate—and handily. I think Donald Trump, in many ways, is also managing to do something that any other republican candidate would be hard pressed to do and that is to capture at least a portion of the liberal voting public's interest. I actually believe that Trump can win the majority of the swing vote and take up enough of the democratic vote and ultimately win the White House.

Whether or not you totally agree with the movement of the 99%, and certainly everyone can agree that Donald Trump is certainly not in that majority, the movement did strongly suggest at least the idea that the citizens were becoming more and more dissatisfied with the way of the world. Granted, this anger was directed toward the fat cats. The rich and the powerful. But I think it was also a protest against an establishment that they (the 99% people) felt gave license to the rise of the rich and paved the way for a growing gap between the rich and the poor. Or in this case, the 1% and the rest of us. Trump may well be a part of that 1% the 99%ers hate so much, but he is not a part of the establishment.

Trump may not be for a $15 an hour minimum wage, but he is for restoring the kinds of jobs in the country that will provide a better chance for better wages, and moreover, more opportunities for the average citizen to get a good job that pays well and provides for their families and their basic needs. Even the 99%ers argued that the evildoers of the corporations raped and pilfered not only by becoming rich off the people (their claim, not mine), but they also did it by sending good paying jobs away to places like Mexico and China.

Donald Trump has said he wants to fix that.

Whether it is by design or by default, it seems that Trump is speaking to the masses. He's bucking all of the trends. He takes no prisoners. He draws a hard line in the sand. He has also managed to draw a good many people into the realm of politics who would not otherwise be so inclined. Perhaps it is still too early to draw such conclusions, but with the times being what they are and mindsets in places we haven't seen in our past, there is enough here to strongly suggest politics are out (leaving Hillary out), and anti-establishment in, meaning Trump may enjoy a rather surprise victory. Trump's success may well come partly from a combination of rules, history, and timing. If the dynamics were not what they are, Hillary could certainly have bucked history. Those dynamics are key to understanding exactly why the historical trend may perpetuate even with very different aspects as to why they will, and why perhaps they would not have.

Why Hillary Will Not Win The Election

In the stock market we typically follow the philosophy that past history is not necessarily indicative of future results. But a lot of the time when it comes to presidential elections and politics in general, history can be very telling. Even while there are some changing demographics and of course, different dynamics at play with this upcoming election, there is still enough data among the electorate right now that tend to suggest that history may well be very telling as to whether or not Hillary Clinton can seat herself in the Oval Office.

I am taking the position that Hillary Clinton cannot win, although I am also openly saying that it is too early to firmly stake that claim.

Set aside some of the issues of her political tenure that I think should be enough to preclude her from ever holding an elected office or cabinet position of any kind such as Benghazi, or the email scandal. The question becomes whether or not Americans are satisfied with the current state of the Union, and how they feel about the direction the country is headed.

In a recent Monmouth University poll likely voters were asked whether or not they would vote for Obama for a third term if he was able to run, and only 27% of those polled said yes. 43% said they wanted someone else. With Hillary Clinton not having clearly defined how her presidency would be different than Obama's, and how her candidacy is not necessarily a continuation of the same policies of the Obama administration, this puts her almost in lock-step with Obama. If 43% would be unlikely to vote for Obama, how would they then circle back to Clinton, essentially equating to a third Obama term?

I do not believe that voters will.

Let's not forget that many Americans, even those who typically have supported Obama, are also becoming more aware that perhaps the policies of the Obama administration, for all of the hope and change promised, have simply fallen short. The economic numbers have not improved much. The jobs situation has perhaps seen lower unemployment numbers, but there are still many quality of life issues when it comes to what types of jobs are being filled. Even having more people working means nothing if those jobs aren't helping to dramatically improve anyone's bottom lines. And it would appear that foreign policy has been a disaster at best—and the recent events in France won't help Clinton either—and according to other polls Americans are not exactly convinced that the country is safer today, and many are also considering that the next attack on American soil may just be a matter of time.

History shows that it is extremely rare in any event for one party to maintain the White House for 12 years straight. I do not believe that, despite all of the hype surrounding Obama's two-terms, and any excitement for another historical moment in the making if Hillary makes it to the White House, that there is enough there to provide her an opportunity to buck the trend.

And Hillary is also trailing every single one of the republican candidates, and I think that is quite telling considering who she is ultimately up against. The usual players are not the front runners. Who is leading in nearly every single poll?

The non-establishment. Non-politicians. Non-government.

The numbers alone seem to signal if not for a history repeating shift to the republican party as would otherwise be the case, but a strong and growing dissent and resentment toward the status-quo when it comes to the entire landscape of politics. Hillary is clearly completely immersed in this world that a growing number of Americans are simply tired of. As well, it seems to me that even if you take a look at the small list of democratic candidates, and any enthusiasm that may exist in the democratic side going to just one primary candidate, it begs the question; If the democrats, or any democrat in the party, felt strongly that the Obama presidency was a huge success, would there not be more candidates coming front and center to eagerly make an attempt at continuing the legacy? Enthusiasm can sometimes be defined by who shows up to take a shot, and on the democratic side that number is quite small. This becomes even more glaring when you consider the controversies which have surfaced during Clinton's run. Anyone eager to take up any slack in what would be considered a strong and in-the-bag victory would readily step forward and say, "What about me?"

I think the truth is that Hillary Clinton is not the automatic president everyone seemed to want to suggest she was going to be. That becomes even more clear to me now.

It is still too early to tell as I stated before. But what does seem clear to me is that the republicans have the best shot they have had in a long time to secure a victory, and I would not be at all surprised if that victory doesn't even necessarily go to the republican party even if the future president bears an "R" after their name, but to the non-establishment which just happens to be strongest running on the republican tickets.

I simply feel that history will prevail despite the changing demographics and dynamics of this election, and democrats will not enjoy another four years in the White House. That leaves Hillary out almost indefinitely since Bernie Sanders, her strongest opponent, comes nowhere near the numbers of any of the republican candidates. If Donald Trump is a "long shot," Bernie Sanders is a shot in the dark in comparison.

Whoever wins the White House, rest assured it will not be Hillary Clinton.

Benghazi Hearings Shed Light On Clinton's Viability

It's no secret that I am not a fan of Hilary Clinton. Still, unlike most democrats, republicans such as myself can be fair about the issues, the controversies, and the scandals. My take away from the recent congressional hearings with Mrs. Clinton regarding the entire Benghazi thing is that she was not hurt by the hearings, and the republicans missed an opportunity to bring to light what I think is one very important and crucial question.

Why did she choose to openly lie to the American people about the nature of the attack on the facility in Benghazi?

Because the fact that she did in fact lie is quite clear if anyone was paying an ounce of attention to the hearings. She told the American people that the attack in Benghazi was due to a video that riled the core of factions of terrorist groups. Yet at the same time confided to family members, the Egyptian prime minister and the Lybian president that it was a planned attack that had, in her words, nothing at all to do with any video.

The open question for me is did the video narrative come into play because we were two weeks from Obama's reelection campaign, and because he was campaigning that his war on terror was effective and was telling us that "Al-Qaeda is on the run," and the true facts of the attack would have squarely rendered those claims false, and could have had serious implications for Barack Obama winning a second term in office?

I think the answer is yes. She did not come out and say it. And unfortunately the republicans did not press the issue. But why should this be so important to anyone? Republican, democrat or independent? Because it should have people asking the question of what kind of a leader can we trust who puts politics before being truthful to the American people, especially in a case where four American lives were lost?

Quite clearly this should immediately disqualify her for ever holding the highest office in the land.

What else might she lie about? What kind of transparency can we expect? Do we want more secrecy in government, or less? Do we want a president who tells us one thing, and knows that what they are telling us is patently false? Or do we want a president who can be honest and forthcoming, even when the truth hurts?

I think the latter is what we truly want.

This is not to suggest that anyone in politics, on either side of the aisle, tells the truth one hundred percent of the time. We know this is not true at all. But it is when lives are at stake and when people have a right to know what we are doing, what is happening, and when politicians are reluctant to tell the truth because it might hurt their careers that we really have to start asking crucial questions and holding those politicians accountable for their actions.

Keep in mind that our system of government was never set up to protect our leaders. It was never set up to protect our elected officials. Our system of government was set up to protect the citizens of this country, and to protect those who we put in harms way on behalf of our government and for the protection of our people. If the American people do not hold Hilary Clinton accountable for outright lying for political gain then we have a serious problem in this country, and the country as a whole is in trouble.

Okay. So there is an underlying perspective that Hilary and Barack are not friends. Why would she be on board to lie and protect the president to win reelection? What would she have to gain?

For me this a very easy answer.

Quite simply, she wants her shot at the White House. She wanted it before Barack Obama became president and probably felt that the election should have been hers in the first place. If the truth about Benghazi would have come out at the time, it is quite possible that Barack Obama would have lost, Mitt Romney would have won, and due to her age, and the possibility that Romney could have remained in office for two terms, her chance to ever effectively run for the White House would likely never have happened.

She was protecting Barack Obama to ultimately protect herself and protect her chance at the presidency further down the road.

That should make anyone quite scared to have her in the Oval Office if you ask me. Her interests are not, and have not been the interests of the American people. Her interests at the core are hers alone. To advance herself to the White House and gain power. She will stop at nothing, as the Clintons have proven through the years, to get what she wants. And if it means outright lying or leaving people dead...let the bodies hit the floor. "What difference does it make?" She wants to be president. Nothing else matters. 

Trump's Hidden Agenda Regarding Fox News

Do not underestimate Donald Trump, and I mean this in all seriousness. Do not underestimate Donald Trump. The man has a proven track record of business prowess and business sense. He pays attention, and this is an all important thing to note. What is he trying to accomplish with his presidential run? He wants to win his way to the White House. It is that simple. It is perhaps the last big notch in his belt. And he may just do it. Sure, of course he wants to make America great again. But the real answer here is that while doing so he wants to go out of this world with a bang. Let's face it. Making it to the White House is perhaps the greatest accomplishment any man in the world can do, and if Donald Trump can do it, it seals his legacy forever.

Trump is speaking to the People. Of course he has enemies. He creates many of them of his own making. The Hispanics for example. But his latest stunt is very telling. He has now dissed Fox News. Who hates Fox News more than anyone in the world? The liberals. The democrats. I said in an earlier post that one of the things that fascinates me about Donald Trump is that he can run with a conservative message and as a republican, but yet still be as far removed from the republican party as one can be. He does not cow-toe. He disregards the establishment. He rolls with his own punches and tells it like it is. He makes no apologies for his positions. I think that the way he is conducting his campaign, the word republican may not even really be in the heart of the discussion about him. It's simply Trump. Somehow he is able to simply be one man running for the presidency, and people are paying attention to him rather than his association with the GOP.

It is absolutely brilliant really and I think you have to give him credit for that.

So, is Trump truly outraged by the coverage by Fox News of his campaign? Is he truly disregarding Fox News as a reputable news source? Or is he simply playing to the swath of voters on the other side of the fence who may otherwise not consider voting republican? What he is essentially trying to say in his campaign is that he is not one of them. He's dissed the party. He's dissed the other candidates running against him. He's dissed the leadership in all parts of the government. And now he's dissed what everyone on the left believes is a news organization that acts like an arm of the republican party and conservatives.

One thing about good business, and great businessmen is calculation. None of these men or women in business are necessarily making decisions on the fly. There is a thought process behind every thing that gets decided. The aim is the gain. The profit. And I happen to think this is exactly what Trump has in mind and is doing when it comes to his run for the White House. His decision to distance himself from Fox News is a calculated decision intended to put him further away from his association with the GOP, plant himself more firmly in the eyes of liberals and democrats as a choice, and of course walk away with the keys to People's House.

I am not going to count my chickens before they are hatched and say Trump has won the race. But I am still watching this whole thing go down with great fascination.

Establishment Vs. Non-Establishment in the 2016 Presidential Race

One of perhaps the most interesting thing to me about the 2016 presidential race seems to be that this time around, I think it's all about The People's choice. There is always an idea that floats around that people disengage themselves from politics when things don't seem to be hitting them at home. After seven years of Obama, even the strongest supporters of the once wonder child of Washington are, I think, feeling the pinch. For all of the hype and talk of hope and change, transparency in government, and a "president of the people," the reality is that the rich have grown and the poor have seen no change in their lives. As for the middle class, they have seen themselves shrinking in numbers and we are still in perhaps one of the worst economic periods in our history.

Nothing has changed, and in fact, things have gotten worse. It seems to have sunk in a little bit.

I think we saw a similar effect back when Ronald Reagan stepped onto the scene and rounded himself up a landslide victory. Americans were tired of the status quo. They were tired of politics as usual. And they were tired of feeling like their hard work and paychecks did not match up. And let's not forget those lines of cars during Carter's presidency trying to get a tank of gas. Americans felt that hit right where it hurts, and they remembered it.

We are in a similar time now. There are still two sides to this coin of course. Two top runners in this election are polar opposites of each other.

You have Donald Trump, a billionaire businessman promising to restore jobs in America, and restore the idea that hard work comes with a reward and that everyone should have an opportunity to succeed in America. He wants to go after countries like Mexico and China which have for years albeit stolen away good paying, family supporting jobs. What he is offering is an opportunity for Americans to succeed on their own, unfettered by broken policies, high taxes, and a lack of real marketplace competition (or, unfair trade agreements which make it next to impossible to be competitive, particularly when it comes to manufacturing).

On the other end you have Bernie Sanders, a self proclaimed socialist who wants to offer people a leg up against the rich and powerful who control jobs and wages and trade for profit, and simply give back to the American people what he feels has been unfairly swept out from under them. Bernie Sanders resonates if only because there is still a large swath of voters who believe that the system is rigged, and that the only way to restore the country is through a forced leveling of the playing field.

By the way, I do not believe the latter works, nor that it can.

Still, this is where we find ourselves. We are essentially I think, as an electorate, beginning the painful process of thinking outside the box. Politics are broken. The government is broken. And people as a result of this are suffering. Only now that that is obvious does it have an effect. These two men are on top because they are offering two solutions outside the establishments on both sides, and people are paying attention. It is anyone's guess where this will ultimately lead us, or whether or not either solution offers any real results in the positive. But one thing is clear to me and that is that if any of the other "establishment" candidates want any traction, they better pay attention to why the non-establishment contenders are getting all of it right now.