Trump's Support Only Grows Despite Denials

I am sometimes, or I should say often times, confused by how some people's minds work. And that's not meant to be an insult in any way. It is simply an observation that I think some people's minds simply aren't functioning properly.

Take this statement we hear all too often, "Trump is losing support."

Huh?

I mean, to believe that one would have to completely have their head buried literally in the sand. It is demonstrably untrue. I know many people want to believe it, of course. Facts are hard for some people to swallow and even harder for some people to accept.

Trump is GAINING support. And in droves.

Granted, you do have to take polls with a grain of salt most of the time. They just aren't necessarily reliable. At the same time, when they begin to show a pattern, you have to take them more seriously. At least on the surface.

Trump is winning.

What is more telling here is where the polls generally come from and the way most polls are weighted to favor Democrats. If these polls show Trump in the lead, it means more than when it showed Hillary Clinton was in the lead. 

BECAUSE the polls are weighted to favor Democrats.

And because the polls are weighted to favor Democrats, when X number of people say they are supporting Trump for president, it means that the number of people actually supporting Trump for president are much higher.

In other words, the polls may well be weighted to favor Democrats, but there comes a time when that extra weighting gets crushed by reality and the reality becomes more and more evident in the results.

President Biden's approval ratings across every single issue important to Americans are in the tank. Americans are not happy with what he's doing. It's clear as a bell. You can't hide it because the reality is just too strong right now.

You couple that with what the polls are showing regarding Trump winning in key swing states, that's telling. You match this information up with how strong his support among Republicans is, that's telling. You look at where Trump is fairing regarding his own approval on key issues, that's telling too.

Americans are overwhelmingly agreeing Trump is better equipped to deal with the economy. He is seen as the one who can fix the border crisis and deal with the crime issues. He is seen as the one who can better manage the current wars happening around the world.

Across the board, and among nearly every demographic, Trump is gaining support. He is also gaining the confidence of the American people.

Also telling is the growing, and I mean growing number of Americans who are now saying they believe something was not right about the 2020 election and are questioning what happened and who was really behind January 6th. There is also a growing number of Americans unhappy with the indictments and constant negative media reporting about Trump—they are rightly asking the question, how bad is this guy, really?

In other words, they are seeing through the smoke and mirrors and less than ever are buying into every story being told.

Still, some people refuse to believe it. They refuse to accept it. 

But Trump IS gaining support. Believe it or not. Accept it or not. The truth cannot be made into an untruth. 

In 2016 Trump got 63 million votes. In 2020 he got 74 million votes. That means 17.5% more people voted for him in 2020 than did in 2016. He gained support. He still lost, if we believe the results, but nonetheless, the argument could not be made that he lost support.

He had 8% of the black vote in 2016. He had 10% in 2020. It is estimated he has 11%-13% of it now. He gained black voters.

He is also polling well among women, college students and Hispanics. He is gaining support. 

This is not to say that his winning in the general come November is a shoo-in. I want to be very clear about that. And it is not to say we can necessarily trust the polls either. I am simply saying that Trump is stronger than ever and is just getting stronger, and no matter how many people want to deny it or not believe it, the reality is telling a much different story, and the polls can't bury the truth any more than the media is able to right now.

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Take Stock Market News with a Grain of Salt

When it comes to reporting on the goings on in the stock market, the reporting often tries to make what is moving the markets more complicated than it actually is. I mean, if you think about it, it's a 24-hour news cycle anyway regardless of whether it is on television, over the Internet, or in various paper publications.

People need to sell news and you can only sell interesting news.

On top of that, the world of stock market information is chockful of analysts and experts and CEOs and all sorts of people who, let's face it, need to be relevant. And of course, they want to be experts for a reason. Therefore, whenever something happens to move the markets this way or that, someone feels the need to explain it away.

I tend to be one who tries to read between the lines a bit.

It is not to say that all of the news about what's happening in the markets is wrong. It's not to say that it's always over or under stated. It is also not to say that there are usually many reasons for market movements.

The stock market is both simple and complex.

While 2023 was not a stellar year in the markets by any measure, the stock market still performed well enough. People made profits. And toward the end of the year the markets did enjoy a rather extended streak of upward movement. 

2024 has of course, started off with mostly down days. The news is looking for all sorts of reasons why that is happening. What the Fed is doing or is expected to do. Mortgage rates. The CPI and jobs reports. The PPI and inflation data. Gas prices. The Houthis interrupting the supply chain. 

And to be fair, all of these things do influence the markets. But it is the "complicated" story. It's the explanation all the experts are pointing to. 

The thing I always try to say is that if you are the average Joe investor, paying attention to a lot of this hype, and that's primarily what a lot of it is, is futile. These are things that may have a day-to-day impact on something in the markets going this way or that way. But the average Joe investor only needs an eye to one thing.

The future.

And even though past history is not necessarily an indicator of future results, a common catchphrase used in the markets, there is one truth that most people can rely on comfortably. That is, the markets have ultimately only one direction.

Up.

Even when the markets correct or crash, they always rebound, and before the next crash or correction end off higher than where they last left off.

While there are many economic and political influences affecting the markets all the time, I think the start to 2024 is more easily explained than what the news is reporting about it. Again, all of the factors being stated do matter. But the underlying simple factor I think carries more weight and is closer to the real reason 2024 is starting off with less than a bang.

Those profits from 2023.

What else happens when the new year rolls in that is important to consider? Taxes. What happens when people have profits on paper that are realized? They are taxed. When trading reconvened on January 2nd, we of course entered into a new tax year. It would have been smart for any investor, long or short term, to hold onto their gains until a new tax year came into play. And that is what most people did.

The start to 2024 is really nothing more than investors now taking some of those profits since they won't have to worry about paying taxes on them until 2025. On top of that, there's the whole year ahead to make all sorts of strategic plans about offsetting the tax bill to come.

That being said, it is important to pay attention to at least some of what is being reported as factors moving the markets. But ultimately it should be a smaller consideration. When we are investing, we are not investing in the markets, per se. We are investing in companies. And so long as you are paying attention to the fundamentals of the businesses you are investing in, what happens in the day-to-day doesn't matter and should not be a formulation of a basis for determining where the markets are going, or what we should do with the individual businesses we are invested in.

The experts need to be relevant. The reporters need something to turn in to their editors to keep their jobs. The analysts need the same. All we need to do as investors is make money. And if we don't allow these outside influences to impact our decisions, we will make lots of it.

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OTHER MONEY COMMENTARY BY JIM BAUER

Don't Just Blindly Enter the Markets
If there is one thing I talk about all the time wherever I write, it is about the importance of understanding and participating in the stock market. I talk about it as much as I do because I think being in the stock market trumps all other means of income and wealth building, aside from owning your own successful enterprise.

Most People Want More Money But Don't Actually Want More Money
The title, I will admit, seems a bit strange, doesn't it? I mean, one either wants more money or they don't. Doesn't everyone naturally want more money? It would seem like a no-brainer to say, most people want more money.

Why Do I Hold Onto QYLD?
Back in March of 2021 I became interested in an ETF, Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) and as I do with any investment, did my due diligence to decide whether or not the ETF fit my investment goals and objectives.

Donald Trump Crushes Iowa Caucus

Does the result of the Iowa caucus signal a virtual shoo-in for former President Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination? 

I think it does.

Normally we'd be at this particular point in the race and use the age-old line, "It's still too early to call anything." But that's when things are still rather undecided. Usually, even with a victory in Iowa, it's still a long race ahead.

But Trump won Iowa by a whopping 51% with Ron DeSantis taking a very distant second place and Nikki Haley running close to DeSantis. You can almost call that a no-contest race. It is not to say that the other candidates don't matter in the race for the GOP nomination. But let's face it. Do they?

I think it is clear that, at least when it comes to Republican voters, there were too many open questions about 2020, and regardless of where anyone stands on the idea of whether or not the election was stolen or won legitimately by President Biden, Republicans clearly want a do-over. 

And it seems apparent they are going to get it.

Vivek Ramaswamy has also ended his bid following the caucus results and turned to endorse Trump. A wise move, if you ask me, and I think it is quite possible Ramaswamy earns a position on Trump's cabinet if Trump should win the White House in 2024.

So, that really, mathematically speaking, only leaves two. DeSantis and Haley. I think based on the Iowa results, it is clear that the next primary coming up on January 23rd in New Hampshire will also go to Trump. And it will be another massive margin victory in my opinion.

I think DeSantis will likely maintain his position in second place—there's just not enough time for Haley to make a stronger case for her own bid—and I think after the New Hampshire primary Haley may also likely drop out of the race.

Especially if Trump wins similarly in New Hampshire as he did in Iowa, which I think he definitely could.

Like I said, this race is essentially already decided. Which is unusual, but considering all that's happened since 2020, it is clear where the interests of at least Republican voters are. They want Trump to be the nominee.

As I alluded to before, it's not even really a race. Trump is just too far ahead of the pack that even thinking anyone else can even come close to catching up is mathematically impossible. The primaries will still happen of course. But this time around, I believe, just as a formality. 

I think I can confidently declare that it's over for everyone else vying for a position on the stage. Trump has clearly already won. As for where the Ramaswamy voters go? I think they go to Trump. So, I also see no boost to Haley's campaign via Ramaswamy's departure.

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OTHER COMMENTARY BY JIM BAUER

Evaluating Politics Has to be On the Basis of Honesty and Openness, Not Party Divisions
Let's face it, political discussions are hard. What gets in the way is either denial, defiance, or outright bias. Often times, there's just no winning—but having an open and honest political dialogue is important because so much of what happens in politics has a direct impact on our lives and even our livelihoods. 

One of the REAL Reason Trump's Skipping the Debates
Normally, and under normal circumstances, I'd lambaste someone for not attending any presidential debate, regardless of the side. While I don't think debates are the end all to be all, I do think that they are important to better understand our candidates and what they are running for or on.

The Uprising of the American Party
These days, being a lifelong republican is met with some angst. Many times in the past I have written about the disarray of the democrat party and how that ultimately effects their standing with the voters, and of course, how it effects elections.

Why Can't myLot Ever Learn?

There is an old adage, and even if it is not an actual adage, it is rather sound advice. If you do not wish to be part of a story, don't provide the fodder for one.

Part of the message is also; I am a vocal guy. And I make no bones about that. I don't beat around the bush. And I am a staunch defender of my right to free speech and of course, in turn, the 1st Amendment. Now, why I am mentioning this? 

myLot.

It is a social media site where people share their thoughts and ideas, and post about just about anything their hearts desire. It's actually a great site with some great people and I have said that many times and cannot stress that enough.

It's the ownership I take issue with. And the admin most of the time.

There is one thing that is true of any social media site and that is that they are going to have some level of editorial control over their content. And I really don't take much issue with that. When it is reasonable. Do I understand that to some extent 1A will not fully be endorsed in certain places? Absolutely. Do they have the right to "censor" certain types of content? Sure they do.

At the same time, do I have the right to vocalize my discontent when they do it? You are damn right I do. And I will. 

See, the thing is, and I have mentioned this more than once—just type myLot into the search field and I am sure other content will show up that I have written before on the subject of the site—is that I find myLot's desire to keep any "bad talk" of their site or admin quiet to be rather weird.

In other words, it is disallowed. Or if not entirely against the rules, talking bad at all about the site, its pay system, its ownership, or its admin is strongly discouraged enough that if you do it, you could be banned from the site.

No one likes to be talked bad about, so to some extent I get it. The site says, "Take it up with us if you have an issue," which is fair. 

Except that if you air your concerns directly to admin or ownership...you are ignored.

The thing I always say is that it's up to you to encourage people to feel good about you and talk nice about you. If you do things that make people feel badly toward you, it's not the person with the opinion's fault. It's yours.

Besides, it matters. It should matter to myLot, who I am sure, wants to keep their site fun and successful. If an admin acts in a manner that causes people to want to leave the site, it should matter to ownership. It should matter to the new admin to understand what went wrong with the old admin.

Beyond that, and I have mentioned this before as well, the site needs the members more than the members need the site. And it seems to me that myLot forgets that more often than it should. The money that flows into their bank account comes directly from what we do ultimately. 

Therefore, our concerns should have quite a lot of weight. Not a single one of us who provides content and interactions on the site have any desire to see the site fail. We want very badly for the site to succeed and continue on.

Silencing the people who make the site go makes no sense. Pissing off the people who make the site go makes no sense. Running the people off who make the site go makes no sense.

Now, I will grant you. Many of the people on the site are not writers. They have only myLot as a platform. It's their only audience. But some people, such as me, have many platforms we write on. And a large audience. And opinions are my bread and butter. It's what I do. It's the entire basis of most of my writing. 

And I share those opinions in all the places where I write. And many more eyes will see my opinions in a place like this one than will ever see my opinions on myLot. myLot even knows this. So, let's say I left a comment as a response to someone else's post, and it just so happened the old admin came up and I said a harsh word or two about them?

How many people would likely see that comment? Five or six? Maybe ten? Based on how comments get read on the site, probably practically no one.

How many people will see any commentary about myLot outside of myLot. Thousands? Tens of thousands? 

myLot wants me to refrain from speaking bad about former admin whom I took issue with. And like I said, that's their prerogative. But it doesn't mean I won't air my concerns nor my opinions nonetheless in one forum or another. 

So, why is it important to me? Well, because I think the onus is on myLot to get it right. I think the onus for admin to be talked nicely about is on admin to do that. In some ways I suppose I could say, "I don't make the news. I simply report the news as it happens."

myLot is a product not unlike any other product when you think about it. And while I do not consider myself to be a customer of myLot, I still believe my opinions matters. And it should matter to them. McDonald's can say or think whatever it wants about its burgers. Ultimately, it's not their decision to determine what people think about them. It's the person who eats them. It's their opinion that matters. And regardless of if you like the commentary about your burgers or not, or think the commentary is true or not, or regardless of whether or not you agree or disagree with the commentary, the onus is on McDonald's to make a burger everyone will talk good about.

You can have your editorial control. You can take my opinions or leave them. But as I have said before, it would be better for them to take my opinions within their walls rather than force me to share them outside their walls.

Because I will do it. Every single time. Because I can. Because I have a right to. Because even if it does not matter to them, it matters to me. Because outside of their walls their rules do not apply. Their wishes and desires do not apply. Outside of their walls it's up to others to decide for themselves what the truth is and whether or not the opinion is right or wrong.

They say that how members of myLot feel about the site matters. They say their doors are open to discuss concerns or issues. But it is simply not true. It's a closed door. And if no one within the site can talk about the issues together, collectively, the issues in the minds of the owners and admin don't exist and therefore, need not be addressed.

Because no one is allowed to talk about it. Or be banned. And if you do, you receive open threats through the back door to be banned. 

I try to point it out all the time that although it may not always seem that way, I actually highly regard myLot. I am mostly a happy member there, and happy to be part of the community. But I am also not going to rest on my laurels just for fear of being banned. 

The fact that they don't understand that actually floors me. As a sign on my office wall read, "Sometimes the best person to have at your side is one who will not always be on your side." In other words, your best friend is often the one who will tell it like it is. Not how you prefer it to be. And the only way for your business to reach its full potential is to step back from your personal feelings sometimes and listen.

I will be on the site for as long as they allow me to be. I get it. It's their rodeo. They get to call the shots. At the same time, so long as I am there, I will push as hard as I can to not be censored, even when some of my commentary will not be positive.

If I can say, without repercussion, "I love admin," I can say, "I dislike admin" without repercussion as well. Your advice has been heard. I don't have to take your advice any more than you have to take mine, myLot.

But keep in mind, a lot of the hands that feed you have already left. There may well come a time when all of them are gone, and at that point, none of your rules will have eyes to read them and heed them. Why did many of them leave? Your former admin you don't want to be badly spoken of. Your approach to the site. Your quiet push to take the fun out of the site and allow members to openly and actively talk amongst each other about our site.

Like the way I write or the things I write about? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them. Want to check out myLot? Visit the site by clicking here. It's a social media platform that pays people to talk about everyday things and is worth a look despite my commentary here.

Other commentary on myLot:

An Examination of the Writer and Platform Relationship
One of the joys of writing is simply being able to do it—and these days having multiple places that we can share it. In this still rather new Internet age, the opportunities for many people who can smith words on a page abound.

More Trouble With myLot
There was a time when I spent a considerable amount of time on a site called myLot, a site I have written about here before more than once. What was once a great community with great people and one where the owners and admin had a great sense of admiration and appreciation for the members, has now turned into a bit of a nightmare.

myLot Admin Has Stepped Out of Bounds
Should I write so much about another site on this site? Of course, it's myLot I am talking about. And besides, I am quite an opinionated guy, and I enjoy having places to share them.

Writers Are the Reason for a Writing Site
All of the sites that we have the pleasure of writing on of course have rules we all must follow. As I say all the time, it's their site. They get to make the rules that we must abide by. Like it or leave it.

Rivian Is Still A Buy

There are so many times I find that stocks suffer a massive overreaction completely outside the logic of fundamentals when they tank. And for guys like me who tend to recognize this, it can be quite profitable. I mean, how many times have you seen Apple's stock get annihilated simply because it sold 100,000 less iPhones than analysts expected only to bounce right back and then some.

Because the reasons for the sell off were not justified.

I think Rivian's recent nosedive happens to be one of those moments. It's just my opinion, I am not a financial expert, and it is important for you to do your own due diligence before deciding to buy or sell Rivian stock.

The thing for me is that Rivian is essentially doing what it needs to in order to ramp up production and increase its delivery schedule. They missed on some deliveries for the quarter, which was the catalyst for the drop in share value. But they still delivered vehicles. And they still produced more vehicles than expected.

Rivian is still essentially a startup, and it is going to go through many trials and tribulations before it ever reaches its full potential. But one thing I can see is that it has legs. As a product and as a company. Even if I also happen to be one of those people who doesn't appreciate the political push to EV.

Consumers don't want them as badly as the politicians do. But people do still want them, and because Rivian has an attractive product in that sector, I think it can compete well within it.

When you look at interest in their vehicles and the many reviews, they're all good. They're all noteworthy. And as I have long said of Rivian over say, Tesla, is that what Rivian is selling is the driving experience, which I think is far more valuable than the technology and environmental interests fueling Tesla sales.

The same goes for the other automaker's products as well. It's the driving experience which sets their products apart from Tesla.

Rivian's stock was up over 27% through 2023, and just a few days into the new year it's share value has shed most of those gains. Again, I think it's an overreaction and means a buying opportunity to add more shares to my existing position.

Is Rivian going to perform well in 2024? Who knows? It's a volatile stock subject to investors being a little bit nervous about it. But nothing that I can see in the fundamentals says Rivian is falling flat. It's increasing production, it's on track to deliver vehicles at a faster pace than ever before, it's getting more and more Amazon delivery vehicles in service and on the road, it's continuing to increase its orders, and there is a strong interest in its next-gen plans.

It's a long way from being profitable, but not unlike many startups before it, especially in this particular area of the market where there is going to be very heavy and strong competition.

I think all this selloff does is offer investors an amazing opportunity to add to their positions, and for someone like me who bought into the IPO, average down my cost basis.

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TDS and the Redefinition of Words—A Losing Battle

How does one even respond to victims of Trump Derangement Syndrome anymore? They are completely unhinged, uninterested in truth, bereft of any concept of reality, and they are simply never going to be cured. 

And I swear, if I hear the word cult one more time, I am literally going to heave up an internal organ.

It brings me to the idea of words in and of themselves, and how the liberals especially have simply rewritten numerous portions of the dictionary's definitions of them. Real definitions don't matter anymore. Why should they? Because truth doesn't matter anymore either.

If you simply believe something, it must be true, right?

I mean, think about it. We have to ask the question, "What is the definition of a woman?" with a straight face. And on top of that, we're supposed to accept the answer that, "Well, it depends," with an equally straight face.

They have redefined what a woman is for Heaven's sake, and they believe their truth is the truth independent of what we all know the truth actually is. Reality is whatever make-believe they want it to be, and when you take that into account, you can see right through their "truth," and how they get there.

Take the Russia Collusion hoax. In their eyes it is true no matter what. Because they said so. Because even though the dossier was fake, and provably so, that doesn't matter. The story was told, they sucked it all in, they believed it, and no reality can ever make it untrue now.

The story is the story and the conclusion that it never happened doesn't matter.

They use words like evidence as though simply uttering the word makes any accusation now a proven thing. They've redefined evidence to mean, "It means whatever we say is considered evidence." They don't say examine the facts. They simply say, "Look at the evidence."

But what is the evidence? Simply things they say it is. Not proven. But interpreted.

It is even the misconstruing of the power of words like impeachment and indictment, as though the mere act of doing them make it immediately clear that bad things happened to cause them. We go back to evidence as defined by those who brought it forth as being the gospel.

What evidence of impeachable things? The evidence they say it is. What evidence that merited an indictment? The evidence they say it is. Even if none of the "evidence" is evidence of anything other than what they believe it is.

Part of the problem we have here is a dishonest media whom we can no longer trust to report the truth, or even to examine it in any real way. The media is involved in the redefinition of words and in the dissemination of whatever their truth happens to want to be.

We'll have an argument with a TDS sufferer about what happened on January 6th, and they will respond with, "Look at all the evidence presented during the J6 hearings." With one huge problem being horribly overlooked.

The J6 committee was biased. It was a panel of Trump dissenters, haters and anyone who may have posed a different line of questioning was barred from serving on it.

Does that matter to anyone against Trump? Does it matter to the media? Does that truth of what made up that committee matter?

No. Only the evidence presented, true or false matters. And of course, they only could have presented the truth despite their bias—which wasn't classified as bias either. Because, you know, words don't mean what they mean anymore.

These were not biased people after all. Their bias was redefined as patriotism. And because this committee was made up of patriotic elected officials, well then, anything they said happened must have happened, because of course you rarely trust a politician unless that politician serves to prove your truth to be true.

What would have happened if they could have put Jim Jordan on that committee and what kinds of questions may he have asked of Nancy Pelosi and her own actions on January 6th had he been there? Or her for that matter? And why would his questions be considered biased if the others' on the committee weren't?

How much more convincing perhaps the seriousness of the committee could have been taken if the panel was made up of people on both sides of the question?

But you can't explain that to someone suffering TDS. Because it doesn't make sense to them. Because it doesn't follow their narrative. There is only one answer for them, and you don't need to ask questions about it to get to it. You simply need to ask questions that confirm the truth as they see it. That confirms the evidence as they define it.

The ones who support Trump are considered to be a cult. But why aren't the ones who don't support Trump also considered one? If the idea is that the "cult" will simply go along with whatever they think is the truth about Trump, why is the other side also not a cult for the same reason? 

Because the word cult has also been redefined. And it's just another way of using a different word to describe a Trump supporter because the old ones aren't fresh anymore and don't work as well. Like racist. 

No matter what there is no question in the minds of these TDS sufferers that Trump is a criminal. That he is evil. That he wants to be a dictator. That he incited an insurrection and tried to overthrow the government. That he is a danger to the country and to the world. That he is determined to destroy democracy. 

I am not even saying we need to change their minds about that. I am simply saying, as I have always said, let's make sure we ask the right questions. Let's make sure we use words correctly and let's examine everything with a clear head and with honesty.

When I talk to most Trump supporters the thing I come away with from those exchanges is that they are examining the evidence with far more scrutiny and thought than anyone suffering TDS is. They are stepping back from everything and giving each detail careful consideration. By contrast, when I talk to Trump haters, they simply spout off the narrative with no question in their mind whether or not it happens to be true.

He's guilty. That's it. No ifs ands or buts because they said he is. Period. End of story. No need for further explanation. It's cut and dry and the case is sealed, signed and delivered.

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