Donald Trump Crushes Iowa Caucus

Does the result of the Iowa caucus signal a virtual shoo-in for former President Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination? 

I think it does.

Normally we'd be at this particular point in the race and use the age-old line, "It's still too early to call anything." But that's when things are still rather undecided. Usually, even with a victory in Iowa, it's still a long race ahead.

But Trump won Iowa by a whopping 51% with Ron DeSantis taking a very distant second place and Nikki Haley running close to DeSantis. You can almost call that a no-contest race. It is not to say that the other candidates don't matter in the race for the GOP nomination. But let's face it. Do they?

I think it is clear that, at least when it comes to Republican voters, there were too many open questions about 2020, and regardless of where anyone stands on the idea of whether or not the election was stolen or won legitimately by President Biden, Republicans clearly want a do-over. 

And it seems apparent they are going to get it.

Vivek Ramaswamy has also ended his bid following the caucus results and turned to endorse Trump. A wise move, if you ask me, and I think it is quite possible Ramaswamy earns a position on Trump's cabinet if Trump should win the White House in 2024.

So, that really, mathematically speaking, only leaves two. DeSantis and Haley. I think based on the Iowa results, it is clear that the next primary coming up on January 23rd in New Hampshire will also go to Trump. And it will be another massive margin victory in my opinion.

I think DeSantis will likely maintain his position in second place—there's just not enough time for Haley to make a stronger case for her own bid—and I think after the New Hampshire primary Haley may also likely drop out of the race.

Especially if Trump wins similarly in New Hampshire as he did in Iowa, which I think he definitely could.

Like I said, this race is essentially already decided. Which is unusual, but considering all that's happened since 2020, it is clear where the interests of at least Republican voters are. They want Trump to be the nominee.

As I alluded to before, it's not even really a race. Trump is just too far ahead of the pack that even thinking anyone else can even come close to catching up is mathematically impossible. The primaries will still happen of course. But this time around, I believe, just as a formality. 

I think I can confidently declare that it's over for everyone else vying for a position on the stage. Trump has clearly already won. As for where the Ramaswamy voters go? I think they go to Trump. So, I also see no boost to Haley's campaign via Ramaswamy's departure.

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OTHER COMMENTARY BY JIM BAUER

Evaluating Politics Has to be On the Basis of Honesty and Openness, Not Party Divisions
Let's face it, political discussions are hard. What gets in the way is either denial, defiance, or outright bias. Often times, there's just no winning—but having an open and honest political dialogue is important because so much of what happens in politics has a direct impact on our lives and even our livelihoods. 

One of the REAL Reason Trump's Skipping the Debates
Normally, and under normal circumstances, I'd lambaste someone for not attending any presidential debate, regardless of the side. While I don't think debates are the end all to be all, I do think that they are important to better understand our candidates and what they are running for or on.

The Uprising of the American Party
These days, being a lifelong republican is met with some angst. Many times in the past I have written about the disarray of the democrat party and how that ultimately effects their standing with the voters, and of course, how it effects elections.

The Gang of Two In the GOP

I have to admit that these days it is becoming real tough for me to call myself a republican, because as much as I have long identified with the party and its core principles, I also happen to be an American, and I believe in the will of the American people over all other things. The republican party these days seems more interested in making their own pick for nominee than what the American people and many in the party are deciding.

That would be Donald Trump of course.

You could say, as many have implied throughout this race, that Trump has turned the presidential race into a circus. But I would argue that the real circus is being created and directed by the republican party itself, and by the other candidates in the race who—let's face it—are clearly losing as the delegate counts stand right now.

Sure, maybe there is some hope on a second, third, fourth...whatever...ballot. But even if Trump does not get the necessary 1,237 delegates needed to be an uncontested nominee, there is no way at this point in the race that either Cruz or Kasich are going to get anywhere near the number of delegates Trump will ultimately wind up with. Now we of course have this "teaming up," which I will just go ahead and call it ganging up, between Cruz and Kasich to try to keep delegates from going to Trump in the final leg of the journey to the nomination. In a word it's simply ludicrous to me. For all of the complaints of whining the others on the trail have lambasted Trump for, this seems to me to be the ultimate whining.

It's not fair! It's not fair! He's not one of us and now he's winning and it's not fair!

So what is the core argument they are making for the teaming up? Trump can't win, and in order to protect the country from Hillary Clinton they have to stop the front-runner dead in his tracks to "save the party." But let's be clear about one glaring thing I see—if the American people feel that the nomination has been hijacked, and they will feel this way, what makes anyone think Cruz or Kasich are ultimately electable? They're not. They will be considered shills of the party, the "chosen" ones, not by the electorate, but by the establishment, and whether or not any rules were in place and followed through the course and into the selection process, the American people will not care. And they will not perceive things any other way than an election and candidate was literally stolen from them at the hands of the very people that the voters love to hate these days.

You are NOT going to win ANYTHING if, when all is said and done, it is clear that you are the runner up and are GIVEN the trophy anyway. Rules be damned, the voters will not give a rat's ass about that. And Hillary will get to be president by default.

I am actually quite a bit surprised that the GOP is failing to see this. It seems to be one of the dumbest and most naive maneuvers I have seen the republican party attempt in a very long time.

Let's take a moment to examine one other thing here. So the republican party thinks, with certainty, that Trump cannot win in the general. But all throughout this race Trump has defied every poll, every odd, that showed him in a bad spot. Whose to say he can't do it again? In the general.

I just think that the republican party is shooting itself in the foot right now with all of these antics and tactics it is trying to deploy against the clear front runner. It will all backfire if Trump comes out the clear winner even without the needed 1,237 delegates and he does not get the nomination. What's more, you mean to tell me that if Cruz had the most with 1,236 some rule would not be changed to allow the lack of needed delegates and make Cruz the nominee?

Hogwash!

The only reason the delegate rule is being so coveted right now is because the candidate who is winning is not one of their own, not the one they want, and frankly the GOP doesn't give a damn what the American people or even many republicans want—

And that, folks, makes me ashamed right now to call myself a republican.

Boy or stream Jim Bauer's PINK FLAMINGOES LP on iTunes

Brokered Convention A Win For Hillary

So, we are of course still having to have the discussion, when it comes to the GOP convention in July, that there is a strong possibility of a brokered convention if Donald Trump, the clear front-runner in this presidential race, does not garner the 1,237 delegates he needs to seal the deal on the republican nomination. But why we are having this discussion at all is really the begging question, is it not?

In other circles someone commented to me that, "So you are okay if we break the rules for Trump if he doesn't get the required delegates?" I responded, and I think quite rightly, "Would we even be having this discussion if, say, Ted Cruz fell short of the 1,237 delegates before the convention?"

Of course that ended the discussion. Because the person who made that comment knows all too well that he would be okay if Ted Cruz, or anyone else for that matter, got the nomination without the required delegate count—but because we are talking about Trump here, that changes everything.

Because no matter how many times the GOP tries to give the impression it will support the front-runner, those of us who pay attention to what's between the lines know all too well if the GOP can find any way possible to deny Trump the nomination, that is exactly what they will do.

The thing that I find a little bit surprising here is that for years the republican party has been wanting desperately to find a candidate who can reach reach out and grasp hold of voters who might never even remotely consider voting for any republican candidate.

Donald Trump is doing that.

He is getting support from evangelicals and non-evangelicals alike. He is getting broad support (believe it or not) from women. He is getting broad support from (again, believe it or not) Hispanics. And while he may be falling a little bit short garnering support from blacks, there are still wide swaths of other demographics he is pulling toward the republican party that the party itself has not been able to do for a very long time.

He's even pulling in democrats.

There is another very big factor to keep in mind here and that is that Trump has also provided the republican party a huge (or should I say yuge?) increase in voter enthusiasm and voter turnout—when you look at voter turnout as a whole, enthusiasm and turnout is up 65% for republicans and down 45% for democrats.

How did Barack Obama win, partly? Voter turnout. Voter enthusiasm. Voters all but fell over themselves to get to the polls, and of course there were great efforts by PACs and other groups to load up buses and get voters to the polls to check the box for Obama.

Without a doubt Mitt Romney screwed the pooch on the campaign trail and I lay that down easily as a large contributing factor to his defeat, albeit a nominal defeat, by what was clearly a failed incumbent president. But you can also attribute low voter turnout as a large reason why Romney could not fill the gap. Many republicans were so unenthusiastic, and so not smitten with Romney as the candidate, that they just stayed home. If even a fraction of those people would have gone to the polls, it may have sent Obama packing.

I think even the GOP has to know that, in part, this is precisely why they did not win the last election.

So along comes Trump and gets the juices flowing. It may not be the guy that the republican party had hoped for to bring this along. But nobody else has been able to do it. And instead of embrace the victory this is, they only want to trounce Trump, stay the course, and disenfranchise large swathes of the very voters they have been trying to attract that Trump has attracted. Hell, he has practically laid these voters at the very doorstep of the republican convention.

Of course part of the problem the GOP and other republican and conservative voters have is that he's too brash, he's offensive, he's inexperienced, he's unrealistic, and whatever other word one can derive to relate to, "He will destroy America and bombs will fly."

Horse pockey.

The fact is that Trump is doing exactly what every single other politician has done before him—and I think we can now safely call Trump a politician. Donald Trump is telling the American people what they want to hear. It's that simple. And it is resonating and that is why the voting public is responding the way they are.

Read my lips, no new taxes. You can keep your doctor. We will attack pork barrel spending...

All of a sudden we are actually believing that everything a politician says he will do will actually be done? I mean, really. Are we really trying to say that here? We're trying to say this with a straight face?

When Donald Trump gets into the White House, if that is what happens, he will face the same realities and the same challenges as every single president always does. Not only that, but what defines an administration's accomplishments or failures is also largely dictated by what the focus of the day happens to be. Things happen, things occur in the world that cause presidents to have to shift focus, and of course there are multitudes of people that will surround any president and provide him or her with whatever current intelligence on a variety of issues happens to be...

And with reality front and center courses change.

Why would Trump be any different? I mean, don't get me wrong, he has my support in large part because he will do some things differently to my mind. But there are myriad things he won't do just because he can't, or because there will be enough smart minds surrounding him to give him some very important statistics and data and examinations into what the real and true impact may be of anything he has proposed. And like all president's do, he will change course.

Look, the bottom line for me is that if Trump gets the nomination we may lose the general election. Okay fine. Or we may not. Who really knows, right? Polls have been wrong, pundits have been wrong. It's always so easy to try and make an idea a truth when we all know it's not. But a few things are certain to lose the general and ensure Hillary winds up in the White House. To my mind, and without any doubt, one of those things is to broker the republican convention. If the GOP actually denies Trump the nomination no matter if he has the 1,237 delegates or not, there will be far more anger from the voting public than ever before that their voice is not being heard, that the establishment is rigging outcomes, and that the American people are sheep while the government and all of the power-mongers within the system don't give a flying rats ass about what the people want.

Precisely, by the way, one of the reasons that right now a guy like Trump is blowing it out of the park.

At the end of the day I think we should simply be looking at who out of the remaining three candidates have the most delegates (or two if Kasich finally comes to his senses that he has no chance of winning) and say okay. That's the nominee. Because otherwise what is all this other process about? Why did we waste our time with campaigns at all? Why did we bother to go before the American people and see what they think about who is running? Why waste time with all that if at the end of the day it doesn't matter, and no matter who the PEOPLE want it comes down who the PARTY wants?

Iowa And New Hampshire Will Determine The Road to the White House: This Time

I am no Nostradamus and certainly there is no science behind my "gage of how things might go." Ergo, what most people refer to as predictions. But I am a bit of an analytical mind, taking bits and pieces of this here, and that there, and I think by doing that it is safe to say that I can at least draw a logical conclusion at the end of the day based on a variety of data. It was actually a little bit fun to look back on my Predictions For 2015 post to see how I fared. As one would suspect a couple predictions were spot on while others were close, and of course others never happened at all. Not even close.

I will admit that some of my predictions, perhaps even the one I am about to get into, are sometimes a bit tongue in cheek. Hey. Why not have a go at trying to lay out the details of the future. Political pundits, analysts, sports commentators, and stock market "gurus" all have their hand in a little bit of that and boy do they get paid regardless of their accuracy.

Don't even get me started on meteorologists for crying out loud!

But while we're at it, there is that "donate" button to the right, and of course one can click on my ads or buy something from Amazon. Ahem. But of course that suggestion is, as well, tongue in cheek. But if you happen to be so inclined... {enter a smiley emoticon here, or should that be a smiley emoticon with a tongue sticking out?}

Okay, okay Mr. Bauer. Can you just get the fuck ON WITH IT already? What the hell is this post even ABOUT?

Jeez. It's tough to be a windbag these days. Tough crowd. Very tough crowd.

So we know that for any political junkie such as myself the big Super Bowl of politics is right around the corner. The primaries. And first up is of course Iowa on February 1st. I won't get into how truly insignificant the first of these primaries really are even if for all intents and purposes they seem to always be true indicators of the political climate among the voting public. To those running for their shot at the White House, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are no small beans.

What we have here is an amazing set of circumstances. Of course we have an abysmally failed two terms with Barack Obama, and even those of us on the conservative side will readily admit that the last two years or so of Bush the 2nd weren't all that much to write home about either. So when it comes to politics, it's been one hell of a horrible, if not horrific 9 long years for the majority of the American people.

With roughly one year left to go before we can hopefully breathe a sigh of relief.

On the one hand you have Hillary Clinton who has been the "darling" of the democratic party since she lost the election to Barack Obama. She is also the "establishment" when it comes to the DNC. For the RNC we had Jeb Bush step to the stage, and easily one paying attention would have thought immediately, "That's it. That's the end of the race. It's Clinton vs. Bush. Deal done." While Clinton was able to maintain a commanding lead for much of her candidacy, and even before the running was official, once again an "outsider," or someone completely outside the box so to speak, is giving her a newfound run for her money. Bernie Sanders. Clinton is of course politics as usual, and she is not shy to tout the so-called "successes" of the Obama administration, and promises to not undue his policies, but strengthen and finish the work.

Code for, to my mind, "to further toss the Land of the Free into the garbage can forever."

The anomaly of Bernie Sanders' popularity is that of course there are many Americans who have not done better under Obama, and rather than cede that it's his policies that are largely to blame, they have taken the notion that it is instead big bad corporate America and the fat cats who populate it. Bernie Sanders is offering a fix for that. Take everyone at the top, grab them by their ankles, and start letting their change drop out while people scramble to take their "fair share." You'd be surprised how many people actually cheer that on—even if it also happens to be clear to any fair minded individual that it will do more harm than good.

So Bernie Sanders is the "on the other hand."

But there is, of course, also the extremely and undeniably popular Donald Trump on the other other hand. His approach is totally different than Sanders, and to him the blame for America's woes lies directly in contrast to Bernie's claim. It's not the fat cats. They have only been operating under the restrictions and controls of policy put into place by politicians; democrat AND republican by the way.

"Mr. Trump, you say that you are for America and American jobs yet your ties are made in China." How has Trump responded? Brilliantly and accurately actually. A smart businessman operates to make a profit, and right now policy and other factors make it more economical to have his ties made in China. Does he like it? No. Can he avoid it? No. The facts are the facts and the reality is the reality. But the fact that he fundamentally understands the reason it makes more sense to have his ties made in China also makes him qualified to come up with a solution and make it more economical to have his ties made here. Which he has stated often he would prefer by the way. Trump offers a contrast to the Sanders camp which is stark.

Make America great again not by taking from the rich and giving to the poor, not by trying to artificially create income equality, not by taking away incentive and opportunity nor punishing success, but to right some of the wrongs of YEARS of policy in Washington which have made it impossible for America to compete for better wages, better jobs, and to deny other countries advantages in trade against us which we have designed and fostered over the last three or four decades.

With early polls putting, at least on the republican side, all three outsiders in the lead—Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina—and with Bernie Sanders leading polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire one thing is crystal clear in this current race to the White House.

Politicians are out. Outsiders are in.

Bernie Sanders, in the most recent polls, is running roughly 9 points ahead of Clinton in Iowa. On the republican side it's Trump with an almost 11 point lead. Originally I thought Iowa winners would be Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton with Bernie Sanders and Trump taking New Hampshire. But I think, especially as we draw nearer to the actual first caucuses, that the winners will be Sanders and Trump in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And this may well be the case in South Carolina as well. I could be wrong. That's the nature of predictions, and of course things change.

But here is my bold prediction. Wow buddy, took you long enough to get here.

Winners in Iowa will be Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Same goes for New Hampshire. South Carolina I am going to predict a wild card. It probably goes the same way. Super Tuesday will be a mixed bag. But the ultimate result will be that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump may well be the nominees—because Clinton just has too much baggage and she's not as likeable as she is popular. This is America's race this time around. This is the ultimate question of our time. Do we want the world handed to us on a silver platter, or do we want to have to work for it?

But, Donald Trump is offering an alternative to the traditional means to that end. He wants to take away unfair trade which kills jobs and make it so that the fat cats can operate WITHIN our borders. He is not suggesting more of the same that traditionally republicans have fought for which in fact hinders the opportunity to have a fair shot at realizing the American dream.

I think this race comes down to Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. And who will be the next President of the United States?

Donald Trump.

As for his win? I think it will be a landslide.