Doesn't Nikki Haley Get It That It's Over?

The only thing keeping Nikki Haley in the GOP race to the nomination is the air that she breathes and a tenacious false hope that something, anything happens to suddenly thrust her into the lead. 

That's not going to happen, of course. We're just three days away from the South Carolina primary, the state where she once served as governor, and it's apparent and clear she will not win. She won't even come close.

Trump has a commanding 62% of support according to polls.

I give her credit for not backing down. That takes gumption. But I do wonder what her real motivation is. I mean, on the one hand you could say she truly believes she's the better choice for America on the Republican side than Trump. But if that were true, wouldn't the voters understand that? Wouldn't her campaign be successfully selling that?

When does she get the picture that the race has largely already been decided? And wouldn't it be better to just throw in the towel and offer her support to the presumptive winner? 

The key here, I think, is that when it comes to the Republican race as a whole, it's not about Trump. It's about Biden. We all know that is the guy who ultimately needs to be defeated at the end of the day. The country cannot survive another four years of Biden's disastrous policies, and we also can't survive the potential and real possibility that Kamala Harris becomes president.

Because we know full well, come death or the 25th amendment, that's coming. And while Biden is bad news, Kamala Harris is worse news. She's less fit to be president than Joe Biden is.

There are some suggesting that what Nikki Haley is doing is simply setting herself up for a strong run in 2028. And that may be her aim, here. At the same time, I don't think one does that by bashing Trump. If Trump wins in 2024, and I think he will, he could possibly gain even more support than he has now. Especially if his second term is successful. 

I believe it would be a highly successful presidency.

The candidate who stands the best chance of getting the nomination in 2028 is no doubt going to be a Trump candidate. While all of the former contenders in the early days of the race gave Trump a hard time, no one has been more critical of and harder on Trump than Nikki Haley.

And that will hurt her, I think.

Either way, she has already publicly announced that she expects to lose the South Carolina primary, but that she will not be dropping out, and believes she can still win the nomination. It's a bold prediction for her to assert considering she hasn't won anything at all yet. And it's highly likely she won't win a single primary.

The only way she gets the nomination is if it's given to her. And that's not happening either.

Like I said, I give her credit for her fortitude and ambition. But the race is over. It's been over. She's like the marathon runner still on the first block days after the second to last runner has already crossed the finish line. 

Even if she sticks it out to the end, the gain is for her own personal satisfaction, but serves no purpose for anyone else.

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Donald Trump Crushes Iowa Caucus

Does the result of the Iowa caucus signal a virtual shoo-in for former President Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination? 

I think it does.

Normally we'd be at this particular point in the race and use the age-old line, "It's still too early to call anything." But that's when things are still rather undecided. Usually, even with a victory in Iowa, it's still a long race ahead.

But Trump won Iowa by a whopping 51% with Ron DeSantis taking a very distant second place and Nikki Haley running close to DeSantis. You can almost call that a no-contest race. It is not to say that the other candidates don't matter in the race for the GOP nomination. But let's face it. Do they?

I think it is clear that, at least when it comes to Republican voters, there were too many open questions about 2020, and regardless of where anyone stands on the idea of whether or not the election was stolen or won legitimately by President Biden, Republicans clearly want a do-over. 

And it seems apparent they are going to get it.

Vivek Ramaswamy has also ended his bid following the caucus results and turned to endorse Trump. A wise move, if you ask me, and I think it is quite possible Ramaswamy earns a position on Trump's cabinet if Trump should win the White House in 2024.

So, that really, mathematically speaking, only leaves two. DeSantis and Haley. I think based on the Iowa results, it is clear that the next primary coming up on January 23rd in New Hampshire will also go to Trump. And it will be another massive margin victory in my opinion.

I think DeSantis will likely maintain his position in second place—there's just not enough time for Haley to make a stronger case for her own bid—and I think after the New Hampshire primary Haley may also likely drop out of the race.

Especially if Trump wins similarly in New Hampshire as he did in Iowa, which I think he definitely could.

Like I said, this race is essentially already decided. Which is unusual, but considering all that's happened since 2020, it is clear where the interests of at least Republican voters are. They want Trump to be the nominee.

As I alluded to before, it's not even really a race. Trump is just too far ahead of the pack that even thinking anyone else can even come close to catching up is mathematically impossible. The primaries will still happen of course. But this time around, I believe, just as a formality. 

I think I can confidently declare that it's over for everyone else vying for a position on the stage. Trump has clearly already won. As for where the Ramaswamy voters go? I think they go to Trump. So, I also see no boost to Haley's campaign via Ramaswamy's departure.

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OTHER COMMENTARY BY JIM BAUER

Evaluating Politics Has to be On the Basis of Honesty and Openness, Not Party Divisions
Let's face it, political discussions are hard. What gets in the way is either denial, defiance, or outright bias. Often times, there's just no winning—but having an open and honest political dialogue is important because so much of what happens in politics has a direct impact on our lives and even our livelihoods. 

One of the REAL Reason Trump's Skipping the Debates
Normally, and under normal circumstances, I'd lambaste someone for not attending any presidential debate, regardless of the side. While I don't think debates are the end all to be all, I do think that they are important to better understand our candidates and what they are running for or on.

The Uprising of the American Party
These days, being a lifelong republican is met with some angst. Many times in the past I have written about the disarray of the democrat party and how that ultimately effects their standing with the voters, and of course, how it effects elections.