Rivian Is Still A Buy

There are so many times I find that stocks suffer a massive overreaction completely outside the logic of fundamentals when they tank. And for guys like me who tend to recognize this, it can be quite profitable. I mean, how many times have you seen Apple's stock get annihilated simply because it sold 100,000 less iPhones than analysts expected only to bounce right back and then some.

Because the reasons for the sell off were not justified.

I think Rivian's recent nosedive happens to be one of those moments. It's just my opinion, I am not a financial expert, and it is important for you to do your own due diligence before deciding to buy or sell Rivian stock.

The thing for me is that Rivian is essentially doing what it needs to in order to ramp up production and increase its delivery schedule. They missed on some deliveries for the quarter, which was the catalyst for the drop in share value. But they still delivered vehicles. And they still produced more vehicles than expected.

Rivian is still essentially a startup, and it is going to go through many trials and tribulations before it ever reaches its full potential. But one thing I can see is that it has legs. As a product and as a company. Even if I also happen to be one of those people who doesn't appreciate the political push to EV.

Consumers don't want them as badly as the politicians do. But people do still want them, and because Rivian has an attractive product in that sector, I think it can compete well within it.

When you look at interest in their vehicles and the many reviews, they're all good. They're all noteworthy. And as I have long said of Rivian over say, Tesla, is that what Rivian is selling is the driving experience, which I think is far more valuable than the technology and environmental interests fueling Tesla sales.

The same goes for the other automaker's products as well. It's the driving experience which sets their products apart from Tesla.

Rivian's stock was up over 27% through 2023, and just a few days into the new year it's share value has shed most of those gains. Again, I think it's an overreaction and means a buying opportunity to add more shares to my existing position.

Is Rivian going to perform well in 2024? Who knows? It's a volatile stock subject to investors being a little bit nervous about it. But nothing that I can see in the fundamentals says Rivian is falling flat. It's increasing production, it's on track to deliver vehicles at a faster pace than ever before, it's getting more and more Amazon delivery vehicles in service and on the road, it's continuing to increase its orders, and there is a strong interest in its next-gen plans.

It's a long way from being profitable, but not unlike many startups before it, especially in this particular area of the market where there is going to be very heavy and strong competition.

I think all this selloff does is offer investors an amazing opportunity to add to their positions, and for someone like me who bought into the IPO, average down my cost basis.

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GM Decision Won't Sit Well

NORMALLY, YOU WILL NOT SEE ME ADVOCATING FOR A PRESIDENT—OR THE GOVERNMENT FOR THAT MATTER—INTERFERING WITH BUSINESS DECISIONS, although I also freely admit that there are many circumstances when it makes sense for government to offer tax breaks and other incentives to businesses as it has a payoff through commerce and jobs, and of course all of that also produces tax revenues.

But the decision by General Motors to shutter plants and lay off roughly 14,000 workers, and President Trump's threat to cut some of the subsidies offered to GM makes me think a little bit of interference is in order.

For one thing folks, we bailed GM out roughly ten years ago to the tune of billions of dollars worth of taxpayer money.

NOT ONLY THAT, BUT THE DECISION GM IS MAKING IS NOT BECAUSE IT IS LOSING MONEY, AND NOT BECAUSE IT IS NOT PROFITABLE.

GM is indeed turning a profit. So why the shutterings and layoffs?

They are saying it's to restructure to focus more on hybrids and electric cars. But the reality is that the plants they are planning to shutter are where they make cars, not the more popular SUV's and crossover vehicles.

What Trump is essentially saying to GM is that there is no reason to lose jobs in America if the plants can be retooled and if we can potentially make the more popular vehicles people want right here on our own soil.

Granted, GM does not have to answer to the government and certainly it does not have to answer to the president. And Trump cannot remove any subsidies without support from Congress. But GM does have to answer to the consumer. In particular the American consumer. And I am not sure the American consumer is going to be onboard with GM's decision based on the fact that we bailed them out and the fact that they are profitable and still closing plants.