Establishment Vs. Non-Establishment in the 2016 Presidential Race

One of perhaps the most interesting thing to me about the 2016 presidential race seems to be that this time around, I think it's all about The People's choice. There is always an idea that floats around that people disengage themselves from politics when things don't seem to be hitting them at home. After seven years of Obama, even the strongest supporters of the once wonder child of Washington are, I think, feeling the pinch. For all of the hype and talk of hope and change, transparency in government, and a "president of the people," the reality is that the rich have grown and the poor have seen no change in their lives. As for the middle class, they have seen themselves shrinking in numbers and we are still in perhaps one of the worst economic periods in our history.

Nothing has changed, and in fact, things have gotten worse. It seems to have sunk in a little bit.

I think we saw a similar effect back when Ronald Reagan stepped onto the scene and rounded himself up a landslide victory. Americans were tired of the status quo. They were tired of politics as usual. And they were tired of feeling like their hard work and paychecks did not match up. And let's not forget those lines of cars during Carter's presidency trying to get a tank of gas. Americans felt that hit right where it hurts, and they remembered it.

We are in a similar time now. There are still two sides to this coin of course. Two top runners in this election are polar opposites of each other.

You have Donald Trump, a billionaire businessman promising to restore jobs in America, and restore the idea that hard work comes with a reward and that everyone should have an opportunity to succeed in America. He wants to go after countries like Mexico and China which have for years albeit stolen away good paying, family supporting jobs. What he is offering is an opportunity for Americans to succeed on their own, unfettered by broken policies, high taxes, and a lack of real marketplace competition (or, unfair trade agreements which make it next to impossible to be competitive, particularly when it comes to manufacturing).

On the other end you have Bernie Sanders, a self proclaimed socialist who wants to offer people a leg up against the rich and powerful who control jobs and wages and trade for profit, and simply give back to the American people what he feels has been unfairly swept out from under them. Bernie Sanders resonates if only because there is still a large swath of voters who believe that the system is rigged, and that the only way to restore the country is through a forced leveling of the playing field.

By the way, I do not believe the latter works, nor that it can.

Still, this is where we find ourselves. We are essentially I think, as an electorate, beginning the painful process of thinking outside the box. Politics are broken. The government is broken. And people as a result of this are suffering. Only now that that is obvious does it have an effect. These two men are on top because they are offering two solutions outside the establishments on both sides, and people are paying attention. It is anyone's guess where this will ultimately lead us, or whether or not either solution offers any real results in the positive. But one thing is clear to me and that is that if any of the other "establishment" candidates want any traction, they better pay attention to why the non-establishment contenders are getting all of it right now.

Is An American Revolution In Play?

For political junkies like myself, elections are to me what the Super Bowl happens to be for the die-hard football fan. You could say that right now we are essentially in the playoffs. But this is a special game this time around. What we have here, folks, are not the usual teams we might see having their shot at the big win. Of course I am talking about the current lineup of GOP contenders vying for the coveted republican nomination. In the top three currently? We have runners who are not really politicians. And to my mind, that makes these early stages very interesting.

Donald Trump, a real estate mogul, celebrity, and businessman. Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon. And Carly Fiorini, a former corporate CEO.

Part of what makes this so interesting to me is that it seems to indicate a shift in the American psyche. And we're not just talking about the GOP. We're talking about everyone because with the numbers currently held by these front runners this means that they are capturing the minds of republicans, independents, and some democrats as well. When 23 million viewers tuned in to the first republican presidential debate hosted by Fox News, this audience was not GOP exclusive. The People clearly tuned in. Granted, it was not to necessarily hear what the republicans had to offer. They tuned in to see Donald Trump.

And we're not just talking about republicans here. We're talking about

What was he going to say? How was he going to react to the other candidates? Was he going to be his usual candid self and quite possibly self-destruct in one swift fell swoop? Or was he going to come out a clear victor in the first debate in spite of being combative and candid?

I think what Donald Trump did manage to accomplish in the first debate, capturing record audiences aside, is quite amazing actually since it flies in the face of the status quo. He's as far from "presidential" as anyone I have seen come onto the playing field. He's abrasive, doesn't care about being politically correct, and says exactly what he is thinking without any filter. Despite all of the odds against him he came out punching and did no real damage to his image, or his run. His numbers grew after that first debate and for a very long time following it, he managed to hold a very strong, double digit lead in the polls. At least among the other republican candidates. Even after essentially lambasting Fox News' Megyn Kelly. And by the way, this also helps to keep liberals and democrats tuned in to him because clearly they are no fan of Fox News. In their minds, Trump is on their side if for no other reason than he will not cow-tow to the so-called "fake" news channel.

And by the way. He is not cow-towing to any news organization. And let's be clear on something else. He's not cow-towing to the republican establishment either. More on that in a bit.

The truth is that at some point even the most misinformed, or complete non-information voter, has to at least see that there is something wrong with the way that our government is currently run. They have to see the reality of failed policies on both sides, in-fighting among political parties, and strong arming for power. Not for the good of the American people. People are tired of it, and I think they are tired of being harmed by it. Moreover I think it is clear that more Americans are starting to understand that they are being harmed by it. Something that I think has been lacking in the past couple of decades.

When Donald Trump says, "Let's make American great again," it resonates with the people because we all are keenly aware that America is in decline. And we either stop it and do something about it, or we let the entire country become an historical footnote of a once great power that is no more.

So Donald Trump seems to be highlighting what is wrong with the direction of this country, and is laying the blame on everyone even though he is running as a republican. It's politics and politicians that he is citing as the leading reason the country is going to Hell in a hand basket.

In a way I think his "strategy" is brilliant. Run with a conservative message, and somehow make yourself unrepublican while doing it. He deserves at least some kudos for that.

Enter Ben Carson.

The question for me becomes with the shift of the American psyche clearly in play, and with Donaldextremist clown, is he part of the reason that Ben Carson has come into the limelight and has closed the gap in Trump's lead? The thing is that Ben Carson is the polar opposite of Trump. But where they stand together is that neither of them are politicians.

Trump doing so well despite the clear notion that at another time in our history he would be situated in the back of line as an

What I would have completely expected, at least among republican polling, is for one of the other more "traditional" candidates to have closed the gap. Granted, that may still happen. But the fact that Carson did it first instead is another affirmation for the idea that people are changing their minds about who we potentially elect, and how we tackle the problems facing this nation. Ronald Reagan essentially won by a landslide by simply asking the American people, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" The answer was no, and people knew it. The question seems to be right now, "Are you better off now with politics as usual? Or is it time to set aside the status quo, toss out the politicians, and take back what has been taken from we the people?"

It is the heart and soul of Trump's slogan by the way even if Trump never sees his way to the White House. The American people understand its message and what it means for the future. And whoever ultimately wins the nomination can take that home and think about it, and think about the way they will actually carry out the work of the American people. And know that the American people will be paying more careful attention, and will only allow for the message to be carried out and turned into a reality or else their political careers are kaput.

Okay. Maybe. It is safe to assume that perhaps I am buying too much into this interesting dynamic.

Either way, I tend to think that if the nominee ultimately becomes one of these three. Non politicians. It  of course means a victory for the GOP. But a winning non politician? So long as they remain just that? I think that's a major victory for the country and the American people. Whether or not it will mean the death of politics as we have seen it for many years now is surely still up for debate. I'll believe it if and when I see it. But it sure would be nice to see real hope and change this time around, and the restoration of a country that was once optimistic, productive, innovative, powerful, and admired the world over.