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Saturday, May 6, 2017

Why The Hell Are You Still Long on Ford?

There is panic on The Street—again—when it comes to Ford Motor Company. I suppose there is at least a smidgen of reason for it. The last couple of quarters have shown a rather steep decline in auto sales, and banks continue to tighten sub-prime lending practices making it more difficult for a large segment of the population to buy new cars. But the trend is nowhere near exclusive to Ford. It's happening across the entire auto sector.

So far as I can tell, however, there is nothing that clearly indicates to me that Ford is a bust, nor that it will not pull itself—again—out of the doldrums.

Here are a couple key factors I think well support Ford's share price surviving the sell off, and maintaining itself as a strong long term investment:

  • Ford has more than $28 billion in cash on the books.
  • All data suggests that with an average life expectancy of the average car or truck being roughly 180K miles, support for new replacement vehicle sales remain at an average of 17 million vehicles per year.
  • Ford continues to maintain very good income from sales of its trucks, really the meat of its business, and with Ford trucks being the top selling truck for the past 40+ years, they will continue to reap the rewards of sales of trucks.
Cash on the books.

Right now Ford sports a pretty hefty dividend when compared to its peers in this sector, currently a whopping 5.39%. The actual dividend is actually higher if you consider that two years in a row so far instead of increasing their dividend, Ford has opted to pay out an annual special dividend. With more than $28 billion in cash on the books, Ford is well poised to not only maintain its dividend at current levels, it is also well positioned to weather the current storm, has plenty of money for marketing, research and development, and to maintain its day-to-day operations.

Ford is nowhere near bankruptcy.

Life expectancy of vehicles.

The average service life for all vehicles is somewhere around 11.7 years considering the average mile life of a car or truck being around 180K miles. This data supports roughly 17 million new cars have to be produced each year to replace any cars on the road being tossed into the junkyard. Of course the actual annual sales figures will fluctuate due to a variety of factors. Ability of consumers to by new vehicles is certainly one of them.

And lets face it, consumer confidence data and other economic factors, while improving finally, are still not where they ought to be. Or where they can be quite frankly. This is going to have a short term impact on auto sales figures throughout the world. Although China is still a large area of growth for Ford specifically, especially when it comes to their Lincoln line of cars, it is still not enough to make a dent right now on the numbers.

Ford trucks.

So long as Ford can maintain its leading position in the market when it comes to trucks, and so long as gas remains under $4 per gallon, Ford truck sales will continue to be strong. For one thing, no one is predicting $4 per gallon gas anytime soon. In fact, it is well predicted that the oil sector will remain depressed. Initiatives by the Trump administration actually support this strongly. The more involved the U.S. in oil production, the more pressure it places on OPEC and the oil sector as a whole. That pressure can easily drive down oil prices, and keep them down for the foreseeable future. So long as fuel prices are at a reasonable level, consumers will be more inclined to buy bigger vehicles like SUVs, crossovers, and yes...

Trucks.

Let's not also forget that if there is a boost in construction—which it seems there could be—there will also be a need for more trucks in that sector. Ford will lead the job in fulfilling that demand, and since their trucks are the beef of their income, this only bodes well for Ford. It's no secret that smaller cars have never been the mainstay of Ford's business, and quite frankly, never has been for GM either.

Perhaps if we are talking about Toyota the numbers would be more meaningful if smaller car sales were in decline as they are for Ford. But we're not talking about Toyota. We're talking about Ford. The impact to Ford of even a steeper decline in their smaller car sales will not be enough to offset the revenues derived from their truck sales.

Speaking of trucks, let us not forget that Ford will bring back the Ranger in 2019, and in 2020 will bring back the very popular Ford Bronco. And let me tell you, that Bronco, based on what we know about what it will look like, may even make me—a guy who typically never buys new vehicles—to run out as soon as they come out and trade in our Ford Edge.

I think the Bronco will be a huge seller for Ford Motor Company.

My recommendation.

What I recommend is quite simple. If you are long Ford, buy the dips. If you are not long Ford you may want to wait for the stock to bottom before buying in. I would also put in high dollar amount per share sell orders to make those shares unavailable to short sellers. Short sellers cannot borrow shares that are for sale.

When you look at the balance sheets it seems clear to me that while Ford certainly suffers from, and has for some time admittedly, downward pressure, there is much to be assured that Ford has great potential for some strong upside.

I am long Ford, and continue to be long Ford. And for me, this short term sell off is only a good reason to take advantage of the discounts and add more shares. Played right, the dividends I earn alone while I wait might just be enough to, if not outright buy that Bronco when it comes out, but can at least support a hefty down payment on it.

Mark my words.

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