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Saturday, February 28, 2026

If the Republicans Lose the Midterms, Who's Really to Blame?

I agree with Speaker Mike Johnson to a point: if the Republicans lose the midterms, it really could mark the end of the Trump presidency. But he's wrong about the why.

A president's agenda only becomes durable when Congress codifies it. Executive orders are a great tool. But they can be wiped out with the stroke of a pen.

Remember day one of the Biden administration? Anyone?

Johnson's latest remark on the midterms suggests Republicans might lose because of Trump's recent State of the Union remarks about potentially cutting federal Medicaid funding in Minnesota over fraud concerns. And sure, that may influence some voters. But it's not the real issue.

The real problem is that Republican voters are frustrated. They feel like the party has been sitting still since Trump was elected. What major legislation has been passed? How much has Congress actually done to advance the president's agenda? Did they codify the DOGE findings?

No.

What did they do to eliminate the filibuster—something they could have done during the prolonged government shutdown? Something they should have done, given that Democrats have made it abundantly clear they have zero interest in helping Trump move anything forward. Compromise of any sort is out the window, even if it something actually makes sense.

Sure. The filibuster does have its purpose. Even I can agree with that. It encourages debate and compromise. In a rational political climate, it even makes sense. It's a way to balance power and give both sides a voice on bills.

But we're not in that climate. Democrats are angry, defiant, and convinced Trump is an existential threat. They're not budging on anything, even if it's reasonable. They couldn't even stand in support of putting American's safety in front of the safety of illegal immigrants, for Heaven's sake.

Ending the filibuster would have allowed the Republicans to pass the SAVE Act and other key parts of Trump's agenda.

What Johnson—and frankly much of the GOP leadership—seems to miss is that voters elected Trump for a reason. Despite what the media suggests, and what Democrats want to deny, it was a mandate. Yet Republicans in Congress have often acted just as resistant to Trump's agenda as Democrats. That's a problem, because Republican voters don't show up just to keep a party in power. They want results. And when they don't see results, they hold their own side accountable.

So, if Republicans lose the midterms, it won't be because of anything Trump said. It will be because Congress refused to act.

Johnson is right about one thing: if Democrats win in November, they've already told us what's coming—two years of investigations and potential impeachment hearings, their own end to the filibuster, endless legislation designed to box in the president, and total gridlock. It would turn this administration into one of the most powerless lame-duck presidencies in modern history. Any hope of advancing Trump's agenda at all would evaporate.

That's why Johnson's comments concern me. They suggest he doesn't understand why Republicans are actually at risk. If you don't know why you're losing, you can't possibly strategize how to win.

It's not too late. The SAVE Act is already in the Senate. It just needs to be brought to a vote. Yes, getting 60 votes under the current filibuster rule is unlikely. Even reverting to a talking filibuster might not be enough. But at least voters would see Republicans trying—showing urgency, showing fight, showing they understand the stakes.

If the Republicans lose the midterms, it won't be because of Trump. Forget what the polls say. Americans want Trump's agenda. That was made clear when he was elected, because his agenda is exactly what he campaigned on that got him elected. If the Republicans lose it will be because they refused to hear the voters who elected them to do the work to codify the mandate.

Voters gave Republicans their trust in 2024. They expected action. They expected progress. They expected the mandate to be honored. If Republicans squandered that, and they mostly have, they shouldn't expect voters to hand them another chance.

Republicans only win when they act. They don't get the free passes Democrats do. They have to listen to their voters. They have to do the work. And they have to earn every vote.

So, to Speaker Johnson and Leader Thune, the question is simple:

What are you going to do to win the midterms? We, the voters, are ready to do our part. When will you do yours?


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© 2026 Jim Bauer


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