Predictions For 2015

2014 turned out to be a bit of a tumultuous year to say the least. There was quite a lot that happened, the most recent big deal being the race riots in Ferguson and New York. We finally saw some major relief in gas prices, giving Americans a little bit of extra spending cash—especially during the holidays. Jobs growth also picked up a bit towards the end with the unemployment rate finally dropping below 6% (the U-6 rate notwithstanding of course).

So what will see in 2015? Here are a few of my predictions for what to expect. These are of course opinions, but I have done a bit of homework to come up with these. Will they all come true? Of course not. These are predictions, and if I could actually predict anything with any accuracy assured I would be predicting the winning combination of lottery numbers.

But of course.

So onward and upward, and without further ado, here is what I think will be happening in the coming year. Some good, some bad, some downright ugly.

• Unemployment numbers will remain in the 5%-6% range for the better part of the year, but 2015 will see record jobs growth numbers. I actually put the unemployment number at the close of 2015 around 5.2%.
• Gas prices will remain lower up to around mid-summer when there will be a bit of a surge in demand. I see 2015 oil prices remaining stressed, and will likely hover around $75-$80 per barrel.
• With republicans back in power I believe that the Keystone Pipeline deal may be back on the table, but even if anything makes it to President Obama's desk, he will veto it. The Keystone Pipeline, however, will become a big part of the next presidential campaign, and actually believe that both the republican and democratic candidates will be in favor of approving it.
• U.S. auto sales will post record numbers. Ford Motor Company and Toyota will lead the pack.
• GDP growth will rise by 3.2%.
• Russia's economy will fall into a depression, and Japan's economy will remain in a recession. However, Japan will pull into a recovery towards the end of 2015. China will grow, as will most of the rest of the developed world economically.
• Iran will develop a nuclear weapon. However, I think there will be enough force to prevent them from actually using it.
• The GOP will see a young newcomer emerge who will have a strong chance at the nomination who restores conservative values of the republican party.
• Housing prices and inventories of existing homes will remain stagnant. But new starts will see a rise with more builders looking to build "affordable" housing.
• The Fed will end quantitative easing.
• The DOW will continue to see record growth and will close 2015 around 21,000 points. I predict a correction in 2016 however, but not a significant one.
• Discount retailers will see declines in sales while higher end chains will see increases. I also see entertainment and restaurant stocks increasing significantly in value in 2015. State casinos will see their biggest drop in revenue in ten years by the end of 2015 as consumers shift their spending. Las Vegas, however will have a record year as will Atlantic City.
• Cuba's economy will see record growth, and Cuba will begin to develop a tourism industry in 2015 with the help of American investors. Although full tourism in Cuba won't be realized until 2016-2017. Incidentally I think Cuba may also experience a regime change.
• President Obama will by executive order increase the Federal Minimum Wage to $10.
• Actor and comedian Bill Cosby will be indicted on rape charges and will shock the nation by going to jail. It will be the trial of the century, and perhaps the biggest news story of 2015.
• Bill O'Reilly will remain the #1 cable TV news show on television, but will announce his retirement towards the end of 2015.

So there you have it. These are my predictions. I think it will be interesting to take another look at all of these at the end of 2015 and see which ones came true, if any of them. Some of them I obviously do not want to happen, but sometimes it is not what you want to happen, but what is likely to happen that matters. Onward and upward, and I shall see you all on the other side.

Happy New Year to all of my faithful readers.

Term Limits Are The Informed Voter

The fact is that most voters are simply not paying attention to what goes on with their elected officials, and that's how so many bad players on both political sides continue to keep their elected seats time and time again, election after election. Many people have called for, and continue to call for term limits.

 

We're tired of career politicians in this country. It's time to set a limit on how long anyone can serve, and that will right the ship for America.

 

I disagree. What will right the ship for America are not term limits, but informed voters. I know that the latter is harder to come by, and so perhaps that might be one reason to consider that term limits might counter the effect of the uninformed voter.

 

Still, I subscribe to one school of thought. I don't care how long a politician serves so long as they are doing right by their constituents. It's not the good players that need to be unseated. It's the bad players that need to be unseated. Most of the time the bad players stay elected.

 

So many Americans become entrenched in things that simply do not matter. They spend their time learning about their favorite actors and singers, their favorite sports players, the latest technological gadget that is coming out, but when it comes to who's who and who's doing what in Congress or The Senate, or even at their own local level, people turn a blind eye.

 

It's a scary trend in America for guys like me who strongly feel that America is losing its edge, and definitely sees the country headed in the wrong direction. Worst of all, uninformed voters also suffer another deep rooted problem.

 

The inability to think things through.

 

People tend to take what sounds good and take it as the gospel. Taking a little time to think about things like unintended consequences, for example, is rarely ever done. Taxes are a huge example of this. People tend to think of the rich as greedy, evil people who have no concern whatsoever for those on the lower rungs of the ladder. People fail to understand the most basic concepts of economics, and when they clamor for higher taxes on the rich and higher taxes for corporations, what they don't realize is that they are actually clamoring for lower wages, higher prices, reduced benefits, and less jobs.

 

Businesses do not pay their expenses. They recoup them. Taxes are an expense. They will be recouped.

 

Worst of all, people who enter the political arena aren't necessarily stupid even if they are often times misguided. But one thing does ring true. They have an agenda, and they know that most Americans won't be paying attention.

 

This puts us on a very dangerous path.

 

As to how we get more people involved in politics, I really don't know what the solution is. Some people, no matter how much you try to convince them of the importance of their direct involvement in politics, simply aren't going to get it.

 

It's boring. It doesn't affect me. My voice doesn't matter. The system is rigged. There is no such thing as an honest politician so why bother?

 

At some point I think as a nation we have to start becoming more involved. We need to better understand the impact of decisions that are made that dictate our laws. We need to think about all of the facets of any decision made, and the consequences of what even sounds like a great idea on its surface.

 

And vote armed with information. Not ideology, and not based on just the talking points. But based on facts. Based on results. And based on clear failures.

 

We don't need term limits. We just need to get the electorate to pull their heads out of their asses is all. That would solve the problem for the most part. That said, I realize it's probably a pie in the sky idea.

 





If Only It Were True, Ford

Those were the sentiments of a lot of fans of Ford Motor Company when an April Fool's prank was pulled earlier this year announcing that Ford would be bringing back its Ford Bronco in 2016 after being out of production for the past 20 years.

If only it were true, Ford.

If you followed the hoax, it was fairly elaborately done, complete with exterior design photos like the one you see here. But there were interior photos as well which looked fairly authentic. The SUV/SVT was dubbed a concept vehicle but would actually be produced, according to the prank report.

Ford has denied the claim, saying that they have no plans to bring back the Ford Bronco anytime soon. However, they have said that they are looking at introducing the Troller, which is a popular off-road vehicle in Brazil, which Ford Motor Company owns.

Troller was founded in 1995 and was eventually bought by Ford Motor Company in 2007.

The biggest hurdle for introduction of the Troller into the United States are getting past safety standards, which are less stringent in Brazil. But be assured, Ford Motor Company is no newcomer to the world of vehicle safety, and if they really do intend to bring the Troller to the U.S. auto market, you can bet they can get this done, and probably in relatively short order.

Even if the idea of the Ford Bronco revisited seems like it could be a good idea for the company's bottom line, it also seems to be a bit "outside of the realm" of what Ford Motor company has been trying to do with their company since the recession hit, and that is to streamline their business, and reduce their product lines. The short and skinny for me is that the Ford Bronco would not be different enough than it's current other SUV counterparts in the Ford line like the Expedition and the Explorer to make sense.

The Troller on the other hand does seem to be a bit of a smarter choice. The thing is, it kind of resembles a Jeep Wrangler, and there are two things noteworthy when it comes to Jeeps. They are wildly popular, and there are currently no real contenders in the marketplace in their space.

Right now there is no definite timeline in place as to when Troller's may roll onto U.S. shores, or even whether they will wear the Troller badge or the Ford badge. But as far as the Bronco is concerned, it's a nice idea and nothing more. For now.

A Smoking Stock

It happens to almost all investors, and most of the time not due to any lack of due dilligence—sometimes you just miss something. Take tobacco stocks, which despite all of the efforts of the government and other groups to shutter the doors of the "evil" tobacco companies, has been unsuccessful. The stocks have burned through all of the hurdles, and have soared.

If you owned just Altria, for example, one of the best performing of all tobacco stocks, in the last 30 years or so your investment would have grown over 15,000%, or roughly 500% a year on average. That's a return any investor could certainly be happy about since most investors are used to around 10% being a fair annual return on their money.

Hindsight is always 20/20, of course. You can't get mad when you miss something, although you can be disappointed. I am disappointed. Partly because I did own this stock at least twice earlier on and took profits early on as well. But at least I can marvel at the remarkable money that can be made from time to time through investing. There were Altrias before Altria, and there will be Altrias after Altria.

Look at IBM's heyday. Or how about Microsoft or Google? Hell, even Berkshire Hathaway.

Am I saying that Altria is a company to buy now? Certainly not. All of the indicators seem to suggest that the course has been run, and Altria has really become a value play. Some might even argue calling it that might be overly optimistic as some are predicting a decline in the tobacco industry.

The point here is that there are smoking stocks all over the place, and they have come many times in the history of the stock market. You cannot predict who will be the next big winner. But just knowing that it is possible to latch onto one, even if it just a stroke of pure luck? That makes any play in the markets interesting, and even enticing.

Calling All Tabbers

This is an original song I wrote back in 2005 which was released in 2014 on iTunes and Amazon MP3 among some other places. I am curious to know if anyone can make a tab for this song? The song is called 102 Idle Stones. Why do I want someone to tab it? I am curious to see what those tabs may look like. Tabbers are awesome people. They take a song they hear and like and they tab what they believe they hear.

I am curious to see what the interpretation of the song might be among the tabbers of the world. You can post it anywhere you want, just let me know where to find it. Curiosity killed the cat.

102 Idle Stones