Tesla's Loss, Rivian's Gain?

Not long ago I thought that Donald Trump could present a boon for Rivian. But with all the angst against Tesla right now, my perspective on why that might be has shifted a bit—it's clear there's more at play than I initially anticipated. And frankly, who could have seen any of this coming?

Tesla is literally on fire.

That said, this isn't some seismic event, so it's not going to cause me to change my position on Rivian for the long term, nor do I think it potentially knocks Tesla out of the game. Sure, the left right now is in a tizzy over Elon Musk's presence in the White House running DOGE, but when heat gets applied to businesses, no matter who's applying the heat, it tends to be fleeting. Boycotts and protests, no matter how loud, usually fizzle out over time.

Take the Bud Light-Dylan Mulvaney controversy. It's mostly in the rearview mirror now. While some customers haven't come back, the stigma has cooled considerably. Even Kid Rock who once made headlines by shooting up a case of Bud Light, now says, "It's okay to drink Bud Light again." 

That's not to say there's no lingering impact. Yuengling, for instance, has seen a notable surge in popularity, likely fueled by those still upset with Bud Light, aiding their push into new markets.

Like some beer drinkers may have traded out of Bud Light and into Yuengling and other beers, Tesla owners are reportedly trading in their EVs at unprecedented rates—not for gas guzzlers, but for other electric vehicles from legacy automakers, and more interestingly, from startups like Rivian.

By the way, Rivian's lineup is already impressive, and with more affordable models on the horizon like the mid-size R2 SUV and the R3 crossover hatchback, they're poised to attract a whole new wave of customers.

Sooner or later, the protests targeting Elon Musk will lose momentum. But, as with the Bud Light controversy, scars may linger after the dust settles. This creates a chance for others to step in, capture interest, and expand their market share. 

As the saying goes, one man's misfortune can pave the way for another man's gain. My long-term outlook for Rivian remains unchanged, and I'm holding steady on my position. Still, it'll be worth watching to see if Rivian capitalizes on the moment while Tesla's negative hype is still buzzing.

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© 2025 Jim Bauer

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