The End of the Harris Honeymoon and the Boost of the Kennedy Shift

Let's face it. Kamala Harris may be doing well in the polls against former president, Donald Trump. But are her chances of winning the presidency as good as the media would have us believe? I mean, take into account that she hasn't made any real appearances other than from scripted rallies she can read from a teleprompter at, and she hasn't had any interviews.

There is a good reason for that, and that's because the media is trying to separate Kamala Harris from Kamala Harris.

Wait. What? I know that sounds like a weird thing to say. But think about it. Here we have a vice president, who is now the Democrat nominee for president, who was perhaps the most disliked vice president in American history. How do you change that? 

You pretend like Kamala Harris is now something she wasn't before. You paint a new picture.

They are trying hard to separate her from her very far left liberal positions she held in the past. "That was then, this is now. This is a new and improved Kamala Harris, folks." Only, it's all smoke and mirrors. And if they can keep her on script and reading from a teleprompter, they can avoid the usual word salads she is well known for.

Folks, she hasn't forgotten the recipe for a blockbuster word salad. When someone else is writing the words for her, all she has to do is read them. But eventually she's going to be on her own. Off script with no teleprompter to guide her.

And it will all come back to us. Every muddled word that gets turned into nonsensical gibberish will make a remarkable comeback. It's impossible to avoid. And I think some of that will come back, front and center, on September 10th when the debate happens between her and Donald Trump.

I seriously doubt she will be able to get through that without at least some word salad and inappropriate placement of cackling. Besides, as I have said before, if the right questions are asked (and I have my doubts they will be), how is she going to explain inflation and the border? When she starts going on about price gouging, is anyone going to call her out on that and set the record straight? And if they do, will she be able to respond to it in a way that makes any sense?

I think what happens is that when the real Kamala Harris goes before the people and has to be herself, it's going to be her fall. Because that's a moment when the opportunity to pretend goes away. They can hide her from us (the media and the Democrat party), but she can't hide from herself.

Take into account another very interesting twist happening right now, and that's the possibility that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. might drop out of the race and, get this, endorse Donald Trump.

That's a rather interesting development considering that RFKJr. staying in the race actually helps Harris' odds of winning. If he jumps out and goes to Trump's side, the tables turn according to recent polling and Trump wins without question. It effectively erases any lead Harris currently has.

If you trust the polls in any event. But that's for another day.

It is also something that makes some sense, if you think about it. I am not going to say that RFKJr.'s positions align with Trump. But there are some similarities. And Trump has even said he'd absolutely consider a cabinet position for RFKJr. if he should come to Trump's side.

The fact is, and RFKJr. knows this full well, that while he can make a case to get at least 5% of the vote, he will never be elected president. It is clear he has not supported what the Democrats are doing and has been a strong voice against the Biden administration, and I think is no fan of Kamala Harris.

His move to the other side would be a logical one, all things considered.

Granted, it doesn't mean all of Kennedy's supporters will rush to vote for Donald Trump. But his strongest supporters just might, and I would contend that pool of supporters is large enough to dramatically turn the tables.

At the end of the day, I think what hurts Kamala Harris' chances the most, really, are the issues. And she's simply not winning on those. Her short-term boost will have to eventually come up against the reality that when it comes to the issues of most concern to the American people, the administration she was part of simply did not deliver the goods. She supported, endorsed and praised the very policies that greatly failed the American people.

The bottom line is that this race is far from over, and while the media is painting the picture of fear and unrest in the Trump campaign, I think the reality is that Trump's only getting started, the American people will not be so easily duped by Harris' "new look," and regardless of what the polls have said to the contrary, Trump's real lead never wavered a bit when Harris stepped to the front.

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© 2024 Jim Bauer

Axelrod Says Biden May Have Worse than 50/50 Chance of Winning in 2024

I am no fan of David Axelrod, Obama's former campaign guru, but I agree with him when he recently publicly said that he feels Biden's chances of winning in 2024 are not only basically 50/50, but more likely much worse.

Granted, neither Biden nor Axelrod are fans of each other. Biden publicly called Axelrod a prick once. Either way, you have to at least give Axelrod credit for knowing a thing or two about elections and campaigns. 

Besides, I think one would actually have to be a fool to even consider Biden has any chance at all—despite who he is obviously running against and all the baggage that has been placed on Trump—if you use past history as any indication of what should happen here.

I mean, the guy's had a worse presidency than the worst president of all time, Jimmy Carter for Heaven's sake. It's been a literal disaster for the last four years. I think even many democrats, although they'd not be willing to state it out loud, would even admit things were much better when Trump was around than with Biden mucking the place up.

Nothing's working. That's the bottom line. And Biden's just not liked. Many don't even believe he's pulling the freaking reins here. So, who is? Who knows?

Either way, the country is going to hell in a handbasket and the people who vote simply can't ignore it. Beyond that, even while polls are often terribly unreliable, the polls are showing very strong leads by Trump in key swing states—states that are critical to win in any general.

Why do I find the polls a little bit more reliable in this case?

Two things to observe here. Polls are traditionally heavily weighted to side with democrats and many Trump supporters won't necessarily be openly vocal about their support for him.

So, if the polls are showing Trump leading, you have to run away with the thought that the numbers may be even bigger in support of Trump than the polls could even possibly demonstrate. I mean, I'm not going to call it now and say Trump might win by a landslide in 2024.

But I think Trump is going to win by a landslide in 2024.

Okay, okay. You caught me. I said that about Trump against Hillary in 2016 and that wasn't exactly a landslide. But it was an undeniable strong lead against her even if she ultimately beat him by 2 million votes in the popular vote.

You have a couple of things happening here. One is that Trump's popularity has only gained the more the democrats and the media have gone after him, and really, when you get down to the brass tacks here, there's simply nothing positive for Biden to even run on.

Sure, he can go out there and tout all those jobs he "created." But most people understand those were simply returning workers from the shutdowns. Not new jobs. He can go out there and talk the economy up. But Americans on both sides of the aisle can see their utility bills. They can see the final price at the gas pump higher than it was when Trump was president. They feel the reality of the economy any time they walk into a grocery store and fill their carts.

No matter which side you happen to be on, you have eyes, and you have a brain, and people can see and understand right in front of them that things aren't nearly as peachy as is being painted.

Not only that, but one has to wonder. Is Biden outright lying to us? Or is he just stupid? Maybe it's a little bit of both, actually. Again, who knows? Biden's a liar anyway, and he never did seem too bright. So, it could be anything.

The bottom line here is that it's not just David Axelrod ringing the alarm bells. Even when you look at approval ratings, it's just clear that practically no one thinks Biden is doing a good job. A recent poll also showed that more than 70% of those polled believes Trump is better equipped to handle the economy than Biden is.

And let's face it. The economy is sort of what Biden seems to want to be running on.

He simply has no solid ground to stand on. He can try to sell unicorns and rainbows, but nobody's actually buying it.

Speaking of polls, what's telling as well of Axelrod's rather grim prediction, is that not only is Trump beating Biden in nearly all of them. So are Trump's top 2 rivals. And they aren't small numbers there either. 

Both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley beat Biden by several percentage points according to most polls.

Now, there is yet another dynamic to consider as well. That's the never Trumper or anyone who will simply not vote for Trump under any circumstance. This actually puts votes right in Trump's pockets. I mean, look at where RFK Jr. is. He doesn't beat Biden. Not by a longshot. But if he gets 2% or 3% of the vote?

It's curtains for Biden even if Biden has any chance at all without someone contesting him. And yet another poll, among democrats only, says 54% would prefer a different candidate than Biden.

For whatever it's worth, I think it is very clear (even if it still too early to tell) who will be president in 2024. And while I won't say it will be Trump, I can say it won't be Biden. But of course, I have a brain too, and so I think we can all agree it will actually be Trump who takes the win.

David Axelrod may be a prick in the eyes of Joe Biden. But in the eyes of the American people, Biden's a loser.

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