More Opinion by The Springboard
Bringing back American manufacturing is critical to American society in more ways than just economic ones. In order for America to succeed it needs the ability to make things, not only for the stability and good jobs it provides, but for national security as well.
Monday, March 17, 2025
Dollar General's Dirty Secret: It's NOT Inflation
Tuesday, March 11, 2025
From Fear to Fortune: When the Markets Tumble the Last Thing to do is to Panic
The stock market has one ultimate direction, and that direction is up.
We've all been down this road before, time and time again. The stock market frequently experiences hiccups that can momentarily crash and burn our investments. However, if we are fundamentally aligned with the businesses we're invested in, these fluctuations really don't matter, because in essence that's what we're buying into: the businesses. Not the markets.
When the markets stumble, there's always a certain panic that sets in that always feels amazingly misplaced to me. Because we've encountered these kinds of markets so many times before. It's really nothing new. Yes, it initially hurts to see our portfolio values diminish. Hey, we're human. It's going to give us pause. It might even prompt us to make some adjustments—not necessarily to our portfolios, but to our plans around them, such as holding off on certain expenditures. It may delay profit-taking or alter trades we may have had in mind.
Ultimately, however, nothing truly changes except the current bottom line. That, and something we tend to miss. Opportunity.
I've made the most money when the markets fall. In fact, it's during these downturns that many investors see their greatest profits. Those who know well enough to ride out these events and seize the opportunity to invest more in strong businesses generally come out significantly ahead in the long run because, as some say, everything goes on sale.
That's not to say that these market conditions won't have a short-term impact on businesses. But that's the key term here: short-term. When the economy pulls back or potential job losses follow, especially during inflationary times or a recession, it's natural for businesses to feel some near-term pressure on their bottom lines.
However, economies eventually stabilize and return to normal. That's when the markets, after having bottomed out, not only recover but often surpass previous highs before the next downturn occurs.
It's the reaction to these events that prompts me to write about this nearly every time it happens. The selloffs and the doomsayers running around proclaiming that the sky is falling.
The bottom line is that you don't actually lose any money if you don't sell. If the underlying business you own is fundamentally sound with a strong future despite current market or economic conditions, it will survive the crunch and there's no reason to sell.
Granted, I want to be careful not to make this all a blanket statement. It depends on what you are invested in. Some businesses may struggle more depending on the nature of their business, and in those cases, it may be worth considering taking some of the pain and cutting your losses.
But for most businesses, this isn't the case and never has been. Take companies like Coca-Cola, which has been around for over a century. How many times has it endured devastating blows to its stock value? How many times has it navigated through tough economic times, through recessions and even a Great Depression? Is Coca-Cola any less valuable an investment now than it ever was before?
No, not at all.
In markets like this I refuse to buy—or should I say sell?—into the panic. It's not something I will ignore, mind you. I will simply work smarter to make informed choices, identifying the businesses I own that present the best opportunities for my portfolio once the dust settles.
Just look back at where the markets have been and where they are now—it's all you need to know. In 2008 and 2009, the DOW peaked around 13,000, lost over 50% of its value, dropping into the 6,000s. Today it's in the 40,000s. Even if it dips into the 30,000s, it's safe to say that ten years from now, we will likely see the DOW in the 50,000s and 60,000s.
Downturns like this simply offer a premium on top of future profits. That's really the main takeaway here and missing that point will also leave countless thousands of dollars either sitting on the table or lost forever.
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© 2025 Jim Bauer
Saturday, November 30, 2024
Don't Underestimate Trump's Plan to Kill Higher Prices: He Knows Exactly What He's Doing
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
We're All Angry Paupers in this New Economy
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Harris Wants to Ban Price Gouging on Groceries: Clearly, She's Out of Touch with Reality
She wants to propose a federal ban on "corporate price gouging" on food and groceries if she is elected.
Sure, some grocers, namely meat packers, have enjoyed record profits. But is that a result of price gouging and greed? The fact is that inflation is here because of the policies that Joe Biden put into effect that caused prices on everything to skyrocket.
You can even pin the damn timeline!
Within hours of Biden taking his oath of office he signed executive orders reversing Trump's energy prices and in March of 2021 he signed the American Rescue Plan into law, and by December 2021 inflation jumped to 10% and has risen year over year since well beyond the desired 2% rate the Fed prefers.
This inflation is not because of corporate greed. It is because of Biden's policies, which presumably would become Harris' policies if she is elected. What it should tell voters is that her eye is not on the ball. If she won't admit responsibility for the inflation, how can we expect her to have the right ideas to solve the issue?
To my mind, it's just the wrong focus and someone needs to call her out on this, and hard and fast. Perhaps Trump will do that and lay out exactly why we have inflation, which is for reasons other than the now Harris campaign is trying to sell us on.
I think the silver lining is that most Americans do know where the real blame lies. Based on the polls, Trump is still winning handily on the economy. But the problem is that there are enough haters of the rich who will side with Harris and give her a pass and agree with her.
But it won't solve the problem, of course, because it doesn't get at the heart of the cause. Beyond that, this will only put more restraints on businesses to operate profitably and effectively, and who does that hurt?
It hurts the consumer, and it hurts the workers.
It hurts the consumer because if suddenly a business is accused of gouging, it's going to have to adjust the way it makes its products. Quality may be compromised as recipes are tweaked. Packaging may change to adjust for the accusation.
And of course, if businesses make less profits, they can't pass any of that along to workers in terms of benefits and wages—or even new job creation.
You don't encourage a strong economic environment by stifling growth and progress in business. You encourage it by fostering growth and progress. Beyond that, you have to first prove gouging is happening, and I question how on Earth you do that?
What measure will be used to determine what a fair price is and what isn't? What method will be determined to decide whether a profit is good or exaggerated? How do you tell a business, "This is how much you can legally make on this item?"
It's more dictation and control over things the government has no business controlling or even deciding, for that matter.
The thing is that Harris really has no plan to tackle inflation at all, but because inflation is still here and it's a major concern to Americans, she has to say something. She has to at least look like she is interested in doing something about it.
Even Biden said price gouging was happening. If they truly believed it was, they'd have already done something about it. They haven't because, of course, it is something that only lives in their imagination and they are hoping the American people will join them on their fantasy trip.
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© 2024 Jim Bauer
Monday, June 3, 2024
It's Not Price Gouging, It's Survival
Friday, May 17, 2024
Democrats Don't Have to Own the Consequences of $20 Minimum Wage
Layoffs, reduced hours, and price increases.
There's a reality in all of this, as there always is, that you simply can't get blood out of a stone, the money is not there that everyone believes is, and you can't just make up a number and say, "Everyone can afford to pay that."
It's just not how it works in the real world. In order to determine an appropriate wage, you must first evaluate the books to see if you can afford it.
Most of the time when it comes to the majority of things Democrats do, I tend to believe they simply want what they want, and they don't think things through. They never consider the consequences of what they do or evaluate the impact. In this case, I am inclined to wonder, "Are they doing this quite on purpose. Is it part of a larger picture strategy?"
The Democrats want you to hate the rich. They want you to think that these companies and business owners only care about their bottom lines and themselves and couldn't care less about their workers on the front lines.
As people are laid off, hours are cut and prices rise, the Democrats can go before the American people and proclaim, "We've got your back, and look at what they do in response? They don't care about you." In other words, even though to any thinking person the blame lands squarely on the Democrats who raised the wage to cause the problems, they can pretend it's all the mean, greedy corporation's fault.
The Democrats can simply wave their magic wand and whatever happens, they don't have to own it. Just like they mostly did with regard to inflation. "It's not our fault. These businesses are simply gouging you, and that's why prices are higher."
It's those evil rich that are at it again, taking your money and exploiting their workers for their own gain.
It's patently untrue. We, on the conservative side, know it. But there are a good many people who will fall for the narrative and completely believe it and that is what the Democrats are banking on. When someone gets laid off or has their hours cut due to the $20 an hour wage hike, who will they blame? Gavin Newsom? Or the business owner?
Most likely they are going to blame the business owner. The Democrats get to look like they are doing all the right things and when things don't happen as expected, they can blame someone else for what happens.
Everyone wants people to make more money and have more opportunities. The difference lies in how we accomplish that best. Because the commonsense thing is that in order for people to really realize these opportunities, it has to be a win, win situation. If the businesses are the source of the opportunity, and they are, then their health and well-being is just as important as the health and well-being of the workers.
I often say to beware of someone who offers "help." Because all too often there's an ulterior motive to it, and it's going to come with a catch. While it may all look and sound good on paper, the reality is that it will probably do more harm than good. Especially if it it's coming from a Democrat.
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© 2024 Jim Bauer
Monday, May 6, 2024
To the Fed I Say, "Not So Fast"
Thursday, April 11, 2024
When it Comes to the Economy, The Democrats Did That
Wednesday, October 25, 2023
The Point of No "Return" in Pricing
The thing is, during times like these when prices are rising faster than paychecks and there seems to be no end in sight at the register for paying more for just about everything, many businesses get accused of price gouging.
In the eyes of some consumers, there must be something shady going on here.
And I will admit, sometimes it certainly feels that way. Like how convenient it always seems to be that right before a weekend or especially a holiday weekend, gas prices suddenly shoot up. And I feel that way even though I understand certain macroeconomic things that factor into why that happens—and it has nothing to do with price gouging.
Inflation is also not a product of or a result of price gouging.
The simple fact of the matter is that when inflation hits, it hits everyone. And businesses are not immune to it any more than anyone else is. The cost of raw materials goes up. The cost of utilities to run the machines go up. The cost of wages possibly goes up. The cost to transport finished product goes up. Every aspect of the cost of running the business goes up.
And in order to maintain their margins and remain profitable, so does the cost they sell their products for go up.
But like most things, there is a limit here. There is only so much a customer will pay for something before they finally decide it costs too much and leave it on the shelf. This is the point of no "return" on the prospect of raising prices to protect margins.
In other words, at some point the customer will simply refuse to pay the higher price such as what happened with beer maker Heineken. They raised prices enough that consumers finally said no, and their sales dropped over 4% in the last quarter as a result.
Granted, there are certain things that consumers have a need for regardless of how much it costs. Certain foods, for example. Gas for the car. But even on those two things there are certain things that consumers we can do to curb costs.
They really don't have us by the balls at the end of the day as much as we may want to believe that.
Consumers still have the power to send a message, and many do. When egg prices hit $4 and $5 per dozen, I simply stopped eating eggs. And did so for 3-months. And I don't think I was the only one, because one thing I observed when I went into the grocery stores was that eggs were always fully stocked.
People were not buying them. Demand for eggs plummeted. Egg prices came back down.
Granted, the costs driving the prices up didn't change. In fact, because inflation is far from done, costs actually continued to rise. So, now the businesses have to make a decision. Either allow product to rot on the shelves and not get paid anything for it or sell it cheaper and suffer through a period of lower margins.
And that's exactly what you are seeing. More and more businesses are reporting lower sales numbers due to higher prices but are also reporting lower margins. Many are saying, "We have simply reached a point where we can no longer afford to raise prices and stay afloat even if we lose money or experience lower margins on every sale."
Heineken, as an example, knows that the more it continues to raise prices in order to compensate for higher production costs, the more customers they will likely lose as a result. It's a no-win situation.
So, as much as we like to think that the companies are simply trying to take advantage of us, the reality is that they're not. In fact, they cannot. Especially in areas where there are alternative options for consumers to choose.
There is a flip side here, as there always tends to be, and that's that consumers pulling back and saying no actually helps to curb inflation. It weakens demand and with less money pouring into the economy, suddenly things slow down economically, which is a primary ingredient to combatting inflation.
There may be a short period in between all of this before inflation really comes down when businesses may hold certain prices to try to recoup what they lost when margins were lower. But even that will be short-lived. Because consumers do see the news. If they see that inflation as a whole is waning but prices aren't coming down, there will be backlash for that.
As it has always been said in business, the markets will charge what the markets are willing to bear. And when it comes to that, there is a point of no return. There is a point at which consumers will ultimately decide what prices should be. And businesses will either have to pay attention or risk losing their business.
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Saturday, September 30, 2023
Even the Democrats Themselves Aren't Falling For Bidenomics
Monday, May 15, 2023
A Couple of Ways to Deal with This Inflation
Mortgages, for example, jumped from 2.6% to around 6.3% for an average 30-year fixed rate loan, and credit card interest has jumped to a record average of around 21%.
There is also the question of whether or not we may still see a recession. Something we have not seen yet, but most economists would suggest that between inflation and rising interest rates, it may be sure to come despite any effort by anyone to try to avoid it. And while a recession is not good, and it's not the end of the world, it would not come without some additional pain as layoffs would likely occur, further stressing American's bottom lines.
On the flip side of this, as rates have risen, so have offered interest rates on certain bank accounts. Savers are getting the biggest bang for their bucks, benefiting the most from banks that offer so-called high yield savings accounts. So, looking into some of them, especially online, may be worth looking into if you have some money tucked away somewhere not getting the best rates. It would be worth the time to shop around as well since not all high interest banks are good.
Ally Bank for example, offers a 3.75% current rate, and CD offerings are northward of 4.5%. That's quite a bit more than the national average of 0.39% even if 3.75% still doesn't come near to beating inflation, a key factor when determining how to get the best bang for your buck.
Capital One also offers 3.75%. Barclays is giving 4%. And there are several others. You can go online and do a quick search to find the best rates and do some bank comparisons.
Beyond that, you really have to know your prices when you shop, and you have to be quite a bit more vigilant about shopping around, even visiting multiple stores to get the best deals on most things—especially food and common household items.
Make shopping lists, maintain a good inventory, and stock up on good deals as often as possible. This will also help to determine where you shop based on who has the best price so you don't have to visit multiple stores all at once. When inflation is tugging at your purse strings, every penny counts more than ever.
Of course, a money related post from me would never be complete without mentioning investing. Dividends are a great way to create new money—it is literally income. And besides, you should be invested anyway. If you are not familiar with investing, a very valuable book to read, and well worth the time and money, would be The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. Creating money from money you already earned is a great way to at least hedge against rising costs.
One thing taking a significant bite out of people's pockets is also the cost of gas and diesel. Why not try to earn some cash back on some of that, and the Upside app lets you do just that. Plus, they also offer cash back on certain grocery stores and restaurants. I have used this app for some time and I have to tell you the savings do add up—and again, every penny counts.
On top of that, doing everything you can to reduce debt at a time like this is paramount. As I mentioned earlier, credit card rates are tipping the scales at 21%. Not only should you pay some of that debt off to save pennies, but you should also be less inclined to use credit to offset expenses caused by inflation. Borrowing when rates are higher, and inflation is through the roof is a good way to compound the problem. So, simply don't do it.
While it may be a more difficult thing to accomplish, provided your company is not laying people off or otherwise enduring other struggles financially, this may be a good time to ask your boss for a raise. You'll want to do some analysis so you can present a reasonable proposal, but the fact is that businesses already understand the impact of inflation on their bottom lines and won't hesitate to raise prices to help get through it. You are as much well within your right to ask for more as they are.
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