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Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

Monday, March 17, 2025

Dollar General's Dirty Secret: It's NOT Inflation

Is Dollar General really a barometer for consumer sentiment? Sure, it's a retail giant with 20,000 stores and plenty of shoppers. But can it really pin its struggles on inflation and Trump-era tariffs?

The reality is that these stores have been virtual glorified junkyards for years. Customers might simply be fed up with navigating cluttered aisles and rummaging through disorganized piles of merchandise.

Management seems indifferent, and it shows. It's clearly a Dollar General culture, because every store looks exactly like the other. Consistency is one thing, but does every store have to look like a disaster zone? One can only assume that chaos is part of their literal brand strategy.

I mean, think about it. A brand new Dollar General opened up in our area—a fresh build from the ground up. Yet, on day one, it looked like it had always been there, neglected for decades: dirty floors, scattered products, unopened bins clogging the aisles.

It was remarkable—a deliberate effort, no doubt. This store layout screamed, loud and clear, "This is how we do things."

Beyond all of that, can anyone honestly claim Dollar General offers great prices? Sure, there are occasional deals, as with any store, but more often than not, their prices can be easily undercut on nearly every product.

If they had great deals, believe me, I'd walk out of there with bags full instead of just a couple of items. That never happens. 

Isn't the whole premise of Dollar General about saving money? In that sense, perhaps inflation does play a role. As wallets have tightened, shoppers simply become more conscious of what they are actually paying for things. Suddenly as buying power gets pushed to the brink, people walk into a Dollar General more aware than ever before and start thinking, "Wait a second—something's off."

Dollar General has been dodging accountability for years, pointing fingers instead of looking inward for solutions as customers drift away. That's part of their problem as much as anything is, really.

It makes you wonder—has the CEO ever stepped foot in one of those stores? And if he has, what's his reaction? "Fantastic work. This is exactly what customers want." Really? If Dollar General wants a turnaround, step one is simple: clean up the stores! Create a shopping experience that's pleasant, not frustrating. Do that, and maybe customers won't even mind the higher prices.

Take a page from Culver's or Chick-Fil-A, even though they operate an entirely different business. They're not the cheapest options in fast food, but they win with quality, service, and clean restaurants. It's clear they care about their business and their customer experience. Presentation matters.

I've said the same about Burger King. The issue isn't the food—it's the filthy, poorly managed restaurants that make customers cringe the moment they step inside.

If you want to win customers back, clean up your act—literally. An exciting new sandwich won't cut it if people dread walking in to get it.

This brings us back to Dollar General. The chaos isn't a fluke; it's clearly baked into their culture. How else could every single store in the chain achieve the same level of disarray? Not one manager, anywhere, thinks to break the mold?

I've joked that if I managed a Dollar General, my first move would be to clean, organize, and properly staff the store. Their first move? Fire me for breaking their "standard operating procedure."

It's not inflation, guys. Your stores are a freaking disaster!

Like the things I write about or the way I write about them? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them.

© 2025 Jim Bauer

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Tuesday, March 11, 2025

From Fear to Fortune: When the Markets Tumble the Last Thing to do is to Panic

Every time I share this opinion, I get a few odd looks. But, without fail, I am eventually proven right. 

The stock market has one ultimate direction, and that direction is up.

We've all been down this road before, time and time again. The stock market frequently experiences hiccups that can momentarily crash and burn our investments. However, if we are fundamentally aligned with the businesses we're invested in, these fluctuations really don't matter, because in essence that's what we're buying into: the businesses. Not the markets.

When the markets stumble, there's always a certain panic that sets in that always feels amazingly misplaced to me. Because we've encountered these kinds of markets so many times before. It's really nothing new. Yes, it initially hurts to see our portfolio values diminish. Hey, we're human. It's going to give us pause. It might even prompt us to make some adjustments—not necessarily to our portfolios, but to our plans around them, such as holding off on certain expenditures. It may delay profit-taking or alter trades we may have had in mind.

Ultimately, however, nothing truly changes except the current bottom line. That, and something we tend to miss. Opportunity.

I've made the most money when the markets fall. In fact, it's during these downturns that many investors see their greatest profits. Those who know well enough to ride out these events and seize the opportunity to invest more in strong businesses generally come out significantly ahead in the long run because, as some say, everything goes on sale.

That's not to say that these market conditions won't have a short-term impact on businesses. But that's the key term here: short-term. When the economy pulls back or potential job losses follow, especially during inflationary times or a recession, it's natural for businesses to feel some near-term pressure on their bottom lines.

However, economies eventually stabilize and return to normal. That's when the markets, after having bottomed out, not only recover but often surpass previous highs before the next downturn occurs.

It's the reaction to these events that prompts me to write about this nearly every time it happens. The selloffs and the doomsayers running around proclaiming that the sky is falling.

The bottom line is that you don't actually lose any money if you don't sell. If the underlying business you own is fundamentally sound with a strong future despite current market or economic conditions, it will survive the crunch and there's no reason to sell.

Granted, I want to be careful not to make this all a blanket statement. It depends on what you are invested in. Some businesses may struggle more depending on the nature of their business, and in those cases, it may be worth considering taking some of the pain and cutting your losses.

But for most businesses, this isn't the case and never has been. Take companies like Coca-Cola, which has been around for over a century. How many times has it endured devastating blows to its stock value? How many times has it navigated through tough economic times, through recessions and even a Great Depression? Is Coca-Cola any less valuable an investment now than it ever was before? 

No, not at all.

In markets like this I refuse to buy—or should I say sell?—into the panic. It's not something I will ignore, mind you. I will simply work smarter to make informed choices, identifying the businesses I own that present the best opportunities for my portfolio once the dust settles.

Just look back at where the markets have been and where they are now—it's all you need to know. In 2008 and 2009, the DOW peaked around 13,000, lost over 50% of its value, dropping into the 6,000s. Today it's in the 40,000s. Even if it dips into the 30,000s, it's safe to say that ten years from now, we will likely see the DOW in the 50,000s and 60,000s.

Downturns like this simply offer a premium on top of future profits. That's really the main takeaway here and missing that point will also leave countless thousands of dollars either sitting on the table or lost forever.

Like the things I write about or the way I write about them? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them. You can also follow me on X at @jimbauer601.

© 2025 Jim Bauer

Saturday, November 30, 2024

Don't Underestimate Trump's Plan to Kill Higher Prices: He Knows Exactly What He's Doing

James Carville once famously quipped, "It's the economy, stupid." This phrase still resonates today because, in many ways, it's true. People often vote with their wallets, and while by far it wasn't the sole reason for Donald Trump's historic comeback in 2024, it played a significant role.

As I've mentioned before, we can't simply erase past inflation and suddenly see lower prices at the grocery store or for other items that we buy. Inflation is a past event. It has already happened. The only thing that can truly bring prices down is deflation, and one doesn't need to be a master economist to understand that deflation is worse than inflation.

However, there is one area of our economy that has the potential to reduce costs on goods and services and profoundly impact the overall economy.

The cost of energy.

Energy costs are factored into every aspect of everything we buy because energy is a crucial part of production and transportation.

Factories rely on electricity to run their machines, while trains, ships and trucks all run on diesel. Although the cumulative inflation we have experienced over the past 3 1/2 years was not solely due to energy costs, they still represent a significant portion. By reducing these costs, the savings can be passed on to consumers, potentially lowering prices.

This is a crucial aspect of Donald Trump's plan to alleviate some of the pain we've endured. It addresses at least some of the root issues that were a contributing factor to inflation in the first place. By opening the U.S. to more exploration and drilling, we can better control our energy costs.

The thing is, and it's very important here, that it's never been about price gouging. And of course, I think most Americans outright rejected that ridiculous claim anyway. "Mrs. Harris," the American people said. "If you think that's why prices are higher, you have no real idea how to make them lower." It's one thing Trump does understand and made it a point to make it a strong part of his campaign.

Granted, some may argue that businesses will just pocket the savings and keep prices the same. Those damned greedy corporations, right? But I believe businesses are fully aware that Americans are simply exhausted by higher prices. They've had enough, and consumer pullback from spending has clearly shone to be a real thing that could have a very negative impact on business' bottom lines.

Discretionary spending has slowed significantly. People have been opting for store brands over name brands and cutting back on fast food. Businesses are suffering more than people realize. The reality is, they can't just charge whatever they want and expect to get it. Consumers decide.

Again, this absolutely denies the idea that price gouging is not only a thing, but any real benefit to businesses who would engage in it.

In other words, gouging customers would literally be biting the hands that feeds them, and in the most fundamental of ways, it makes no sense to do it. They aren't dumb. They know their customers and what drives them.

Any good business, if it wants to be successful, knows full well what makes their customers come and what makes them go away. And they know customers are tired. Their wallets are worn out at the seams. Companies will be more than eager to pass along any cost savings to consumers because they desperately want to regain customer confidence and have them waltzing back through their doors.

Trump understands the economy. He knows how money moves and what drives spending. So naturally, it makes sense that he's going to target the very things that make an economy thrive and grow and home in on stimulating the economy in a way that supports more jobs and even better wages. And if wages can grow, we can catch up to past inflation more quickly.

Energy is the first step in the bigger picture plan Trump has—an important one, but just the beginning. What drives an economy? Money. The more people and businesses have, the better the economy performs. Trump understands this. By lowering costs, reducing prices, and cutting taxes, you essentially put more money in everyone's pockets to spend on what matters most.

Commerce.

Even for those who argue that Trump's tariffs could negatively impact efforts to reduce consumer costs, I think they are thinking about this rather narrowly. There's more to consider. His threat of tariffs, combined with his desire to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% could have more benefits than drawbacks. These measures not only encourage businesses to operate within the country, but it also incentivizes other businesses to open new factories or return labor to the U.S.

It's the economy, stupid, is right. James Carville nailed it. But I think the more important thing here is that the person we put in charge understands how to make it go. And I think Trump does. It doesn't mean there isn't still a long road ahead. It doesn't mean it will be easy. The impact won't be felt overnight. But what we do know is that Trump will be leading the charge day and night, putting in place ideas and policies that can have a major positive impact on our wallets and more importantly, giving people back a large portion of the spending power that was stripped away from them during the Biden years.

If people are busy trying to poo-poo what Trump is proposing, I think it's simply because they don't understand what he knows and aren't willing to more deeply explore what it is he's actually up to. The worst thing one can do is underestimate Trump's intelligence. He's way smarter than most would ever dare give him credit for.

It won't be long before that becomes all too evident that he knows exactly what he's doing. Mark my words on that.

Like the way I write or the things I write about? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them.

© 2024 Jim Bauer

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

We're All Angry Paupers in this New Economy

by Leonard Knath, staff writer

Hey folks, gather around. It's time for another episode of, "What in the hell is wrong with the world today?" Let's talk about the cost of food. Yeah, you heard me. Food. The stuff we need to survive. You'd think it would be a basic human right. But no. Instead, it's become a luxury item.

Have you seen the prices lately? Well, of course you have. How can you miss them? And what about those damn eggs? What's going on with that? Since when did having a dozen eggs in your shopping cart get raised eyebrows from people passing you in the aisles?

"Enjoy your scrambled dinner, Rockefeller."

Of course, you can't blame the stores or even who makes all this stuff. It's inflation that's done it for anyone who wasn't aware. It's an invisible hand reaching into our pockets pulling out whatever spare change we have left.

Kind of makes me think of a bad magician. You know the one. He says, "Give me a dollar and I'll make it disappear," only to grab it, spin around, and run.

As a matter of fact, I think this magician has long, dark hair and a rather grating cackle.

Speaking of politicians, they just stand with their thumbs up their asses telling us it's all under control. Yeah, sure it is. Just like we were once told that the Titanic was "unsinkable."

I am pretty sure they want me to be dirt poor. Those stinking Democrats. They want me poorer than poor. How else can they entice me with their free stuff so I will vote for them? I still won't, but you get the idea. Beyond that, any time I get a bill there's another fee, another service charge. 

The greatest inventor nowadays invents new ways to take my money. "Oh, you want to breathe air? That'll be $5.99 plus tax."

Leonard Knath, pronounced like math, is a seeker of truth and an adamant denier of the status quo. He makes his home in Stratford, New Jersey where he lives with his wife Dee and their two cats, Lawson and Saul.

For more great content from The Springboard, follow us on Facebook to keep up with the latest posts.

© 2024 Leonard Knath

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Harris Wants to Ban Price Gouging on Groceries: Clearly, She's Out of Touch with Reality

Is it just me, or is anyone else getting the passing of the buck on inflation that has been dealt time and time again by the Biden administration, and now Harris, as she campaigns following Biden dropping out of the race?

She wants to propose a federal ban on "corporate price gouging" on food and groceries if she is elected.

Sure, some grocers, namely meat packers, have enjoyed record profits. But is that a result of price gouging and greed? The fact is that inflation is here because of the policies that Joe Biden put into effect that caused prices on everything to skyrocket.

You can even pin the damn timeline!

Within hours of Biden taking his oath of office he signed executive orders reversing Trump's energy prices and in March of 2021 he signed the American Rescue Plan into law, and by December 2021 inflation jumped to 10% and has risen year over year since well beyond the desired 2% rate the Fed prefers.

This inflation is not because of corporate greed. It is because of Biden's policies, which presumably would become Harris' policies if she is elected. What it should tell voters is that her eye is not on the ball. If she won't admit responsibility for the inflation, how can we expect her to have the right ideas to solve the issue?

To my mind, it's just the wrong focus and someone needs to call her out on this, and hard and fast. Perhaps Trump will do that and lay out exactly why we have inflation, which is for reasons other than the now Harris campaign is trying to sell us on.

I think the silver lining is that most Americans do know where the real blame lies. Based on the polls, Trump is still winning handily on the economy. But the problem is that there are enough haters of the rich who will side with Harris and give her a pass and agree with her.

But it won't solve the problem, of course, because it doesn't get at the heart of the cause. Beyond that, this will only put more restraints on businesses to operate profitably and effectively, and who does that hurt?

It hurts the consumer, and it hurts the workers.

It hurts the consumer because if suddenly a business is accused of gouging, it's going to have to adjust the way it makes its products. Quality may be compromised as recipes are tweaked. Packaging may change to adjust for the accusation.

And of course, if businesses make less profits, they can't pass any of that along to workers in terms of benefits and wages—or even new job creation.

You don't encourage a strong economic environment by stifling growth and progress in business. You encourage it by fostering growth and progress. Beyond that, you have to first prove gouging is happening, and I question how on Earth you do that?

What measure will be used to determine what a fair price is and what isn't? What method will be determined to decide whether a profit is good or exaggerated? How do you tell a business, "This is how much you can legally make on this item?"

It's more dictation and control over things the government has no business controlling or even deciding, for that matter.

The thing is that Harris really has no plan to tackle inflation at all, but because inflation is still here and it's a major concern to Americans, she has to say something. She has to at least look like she is interested in doing something about it.

Even Biden said price gouging was happening. If they truly believed it was, they'd have already done something about it. They haven't because, of course, it is something that only lives in their imagination and they are hoping the American people will join them on their fantasy trip.

Like the way I write or the things I write about? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them.

© 2024 Jim Bauer

Monday, June 3, 2024

It's Not Price Gouging, It's Survival

The Democrats are trying to sell the idea that businesses are price gouging their customers. Of course, we all know that's not true. But it's a nice and easy way to pass on the debilitating effects of inflation and put the blame somewhere other than on their policies which are at the root of what's causing it.

The rising cost of labor, which the Democrats have long been pushing for, are not without their own contribution to the higher costs we are facing everywhere. It's not the only reason for the inflation, of course. But it doesn't help.

Fast food operators, for example, in California are being slaughtered by the $20 minimum wage.

The reality is that price gouging can't occur. That's not to say it never happens or even that it can't happen. It simply has limits. So, the reality is that it isn't happening, and that is evidenced by fast food businesses in particular having to do all sorts of things to ramp up business since customers are not eating at their restaurants as much due to the higher cost to do it.

In other words, you can't just charge whatever you want and expect customers to automatically pay it. If that were the case, the fast-food chains wouldn't be seeing their sales suffer.

As a general rule, the markets dictate what things cost, outside of external factors of course. Inflation, for example. But generally speaking, a business can only charge for its goods and services what the market is willing to bear.

It wasn't that long ago when a family of four was out and about on a weekend and stopping by for a quick bite at McDonald's was a reasonable proposition. Now that quick stop might cost upwards of $100. So, it's much more of a consideration than it was before, and many people are simply saying no.

It's just not worth it.

As a result, instead of gouging customers, fast food chains are revisiting value menu concepts. But those come at a cost. Even though when these value menus first arrived on scene, they were very profitable business drivers, that's not the case now.

The difference is we didn't have inflation and people had more disposable cash. People were more willing to upgrade their orders and buy higher margin menu items on top of their $1 McChicken sandwich, for example, that helped to defray some of the costs of offering cheaper menu items to customers.

Almost all of the fast-food chains are rolling out some type of value offering. McDonald's offers a $5 value meal, Burger King is rolling out a $3 offering and Wendy's has an offering of their own as well. 

It hurts the business, as most franchisees will say. These items are being sold at cost and sometimes at a loss, and so the hope is that customers will do the same as before when considering value items and add higher margin items to their order.

But again, with inflation, they may not be as willing to do it.

The bottom line is that businesses are dealing with the impact of the rising costs of doing business just like everyone else is dealing with the higher cost of living on everything else. There's no gouging going on here. Because again, the market is not willing to bear any cost. Businesses are at the whim of their customers, not the other way around. And in many ways, while it is painful at least in the short term, in order to keep customers walking through their doors, they are willing to lose a little money in the process.

The last thing these restaurants want is for customers to opt for staying home for lunch rather than considering what was before a fairly economical prepared one.

When my wife and I could opt for a quick bite out when we were running some errands and it only cost around $10, it was rarely a second thought. But when that same trip costs $30, you think twice about it. "Is it worth it?" Most people are saying no. Not when I can go home and make a sandwich and maybe even toss a few chips on my plate for under $2.

Businesses are out to make a profit. It's the whole point of being in business of course. And in order to do that, you need customers, and you won't get them at any cost. The villains are not the operators. They are victims just like the rest of us of the impact of higher wage demands and inflation—and they are running out of workarounds that work.

If price gouging was a thing, businesses would not be having to consider loss leaders to keep customers coming in.

Like the way I write or the things I write about? Follow me on my Facebook page or on X to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them.

© 2024 Jim Bauer

Friday, May 17, 2024

Democrats Don't Have to Own the Consequences of $20 Minimum Wage

Even though the reality is that it's mostly the Democrats who hold most of the wealth, they are always trying to paint themselves as "for the working class." When it comes to the $20 an hour wage hike in California for fast food workers with some exceptions, of course all of the things we said would happen are happening.

Layoffs, reduced hours, and price increases.

There's a reality in all of this, as there always is, that you simply can't get blood out of a stone, the money is not there that everyone believes is, and you can't just make up a number and say, "Everyone can afford to pay that."

It's just not how it works in the real world. In order to determine an appropriate wage, you must first evaluate the books to see if you can afford it.

Most of the time when it comes to the majority of things Democrats do, I tend to believe they simply want what they want, and they don't think things through. They never consider the consequences of what they do or evaluate the impact. In this case, I am inclined to wonder, "Are they doing this quite on purpose. Is it part of a larger picture strategy?"

The Democrats want you to hate the rich. They want you to think that these companies and business owners only care about their bottom lines and themselves and couldn't care less about their workers on the front lines.

As people are laid off, hours are cut and prices rise, the Democrats can go before the American people and proclaim, "We've got your back, and look at what they do in response? They don't care about you." In other words, even though to any thinking person the blame lands squarely on the Democrats who raised the wage to cause the problems, they can pretend it's all the mean, greedy corporation's fault.

The Democrats can simply wave their magic wand and whatever happens, they don't have to own it. Just like they mostly did with regard to inflation. "It's not our fault. These businesses are simply gouging you, and that's why prices are higher."

It's those evil rich that are at it again, taking your money and exploiting their workers for their own gain.

It's patently untrue. We, on the conservative side, know it. But there are a good many people who will fall for the narrative and completely believe it and that is what the Democrats are banking on. When someone gets laid off or has their hours cut due to the $20 an hour wage hike, who will they blame? Gavin Newsom? Or the business owner?

Most likely they are going to blame the business owner. The Democrats get to look like they are doing all the right things and when things don't happen as expected, they can blame someone else for what happens.

Everyone wants people to make more money and have more opportunities. The difference lies in how we accomplish that best. Because the commonsense thing is that in order for people to really realize these opportunities, it has to be a win, win situation. If the businesses are the source of the opportunity, and they are, then their health and well-being is just as important as the health and well-being of the workers. 

I often say to beware of someone who offers "help." Because all too often there's an ulterior motive to it, and it's going to come with a catch. While it may all look and sound good on paper, the reality is that it will probably do more harm than good. Especially if it it's coming from a Democrat.

Like the way I write or the things I write about? Follow me on my Facebook page or follow me on X to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them.

© 2024 Jim Bauer

Monday, May 6, 2024

To the Fed I Say, "Not So Fast"

I am no economist, but I say, "Not so fast," on the idea of the Fed lowering interest rates just yet, even if there are some indications of some minor improvements in both the rate of inflation as well as certain jobs data.

Investors appear hopeful we may see the Fed rate lowered.

While we're closer to the desired 2% inflation rate, we're still much higher than that. Beyond that, what we experienced in this particular inflationary period while interest rates were higher was no real slowdown in consumer spending—something that is aimed for when the Fed raises rates. The idea is, of course, to at least stall the economy.

Part of the reason spending really didn't slow down all that much, I think, was due to a couple of factors, and perhaps a third one.

For one thing, while many jobs were impacted by the pandemic shutdowns, many people—in fact, the majority of workers—remained fully employed and earned paychecks. With less places to spend their earnings, people accumulated money that would have otherwise been spent. That money rested on the sidelines until things finally opened back up.

The second thing was that trillions of dollars were forced into the economy through relief checks to people and businesses. On top of that, unemployment benefits were extended for people impacted by Covid. In other words, while the economy itself had a stall during the pandemic, consumers were still largely cash rich. They were either stockpiling money or they were otherwise shored up by the government.

That left a lot of money on the table to be spent eventually and spend it consumers did when doors were once again open.

The third thing, I think, was a bit of what I am calling a "capitulation," of sorts. During that roughly two-year period it was miserable. No two ways about it. If you were spending, it was only on the essentials. With the lockdowns you couldn't really go anywhere. And even when it came to any shopping you could do there were massive supply chain disruptions which meant shelves were virtually left empty on many of the things we needed and wanted to buy.

Then came massive inflation, and I think people simply said, "Screw it." 

People not only wanted to get out when the economy opened back up for business. They needed to. And they were going to spend their money no matter what because they had the money to spend. Thus, through all of this, even while the Fed tried to slow people down, it just wasn't happening, and inflation continued despite the efforts of the Fed.

I do think we are finally seeing at least some indication that higher interest rates are beginning to take effect and help to reverse course. McDonald's and other fast-food chains recently reported a slowdown in sales for the first time in a long time. Consumer spending overall has slowed a bit.

The thing is, why lower rates now when things are just getting started? Let's get much closer to that 2% and then make a decision.

It's sort of the same reasoning that Biden's passage of the American Rescue Plan at a time when things were already opened back up and people began returning to work was simply wrong. It provided for prolonged issues in the supply chain and lead to massive labor shortages, both of which contributed largely to a lot of the inflation we are experiencing now.

It was simply the wrong time to infuse more money into the economy when it really didn't need it.

It's not to say that even if the Fed lowers the rate nominally, say 25 basis points, that consumers will go wild and return to normal spending levels right away. But I think the better idea is to wait until not only we get to the desired 2%, but we stay there for a little while. Then we lower the rates.

Today we will hear comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin that should at least provide for a better idea as to what moves the Fed will make in the near term.

I am hoping they indicate that for now we're going to sit tight.

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Thursday, April 11, 2024

When it Comes to the Economy, The Democrats Did That

"What magic wand do you have?"

That was the question posed by Barack Obama in response to Donald Trump in the 2016 election when Trump said he could restore the economy and bring back American manufacturing. Of course, this was after eight long years of a virtually no-growth economy under Obama's reign, and it was his contention that the United States was simply transforming into a new economy.

What it was, essentially, was his excuse to try and explain what he was never able to do, and that was to lift the economy out of the throes of the economic crisis he faced when he took his first term in office. "Some of those jobs just aren't going to come back," he said. "Well, I'm going to negotiate a better deal. How are you going to do that?"

Of course, President Trump did in fact, negotiate better deals. Granted, it can be up for debate what real impact some of these deals had on actually bringing back manufacturing in a significant way, but many jobs did return, and certainly the policies that were implemented by Trump had a major positive impact on the economy itself.

Obama's comments signaled, to me, a capitulation and an admission (although quietly) that he had no idea how the economy actually worked, or how to fix it. It certainly showed in his results. And time and time again when he was asked about why the economy was experiencing one of the slowest recoveries in history, he simply pointed blame back at the Bush administration before him.

He blamed Republicans for the economic crisis in 2008 that was largely a result of Bill Clinton's, "Every American should be able to own a home," and blamed Republicans for hurting his economic efforts, and of course went on to simply blame the "new economy." 

It was very clear that he felt that this was just the way things are now, and we're going to have to accept it and adapt to it. That was the capitulation part. "I can't fix what can't be fixed. We now just have to deal with what we have."

Only to turn around when Trump's economy soared and proved Obama very wrong and claim, "I did that."

Now Democrats are fit to claim that all of the economic woes we face today are the result of Trump's policies coming back to bite us in the butt. So, which is it? 

On top of that, what Democrats are doing now is outright dismissing the first three years of Trump's rapid economic successes and only pointing to the last year. "See what he did? See what his policies left us with?"

Only it misses one big point. Covid. Because that was what sunk the economy in Trump's final days. But not through his policies. But through the recommendations of people like Dr. Fauci and Democrat leadership that insisted that businesses be shuttered, and the country should be locked down.

Of course it killed the economy. How could it not? Suddenly we had to print all sorts of money we didn't have to shore up business owners and workers who were sidelined by the shutdowns. It set the wheels in motion to face one of the biggest supply chain crises we've seen in decades.

The odd thing is that right before Trump left office, we actually began to see a massive uptick in the economy. It can only be argued that policies were implemented quickly by Trump to ensure we could get things moving again post-pandemic. They would have worked.

But Biden turned it around and stopped it in its tracks with new policies that made no sense, such as introducing the American Rescue Plan and reversing Trump's energy policies, both actions which catapulted us into 10% inflation by the end of 2021.

Whose fault is it we're in the boat we're in now? According to Biden and the Democrats it's Trump's fault. 

It's the usual Democrat game. Blame someone else when things are bad and take the credit when things are good. Only there's one big problem here.

If Barack Obama wants to claim that Trump's stellar economy was a result of Obama's policies, and Biden won the election in 2020 and essentially continued Obama's policies, why is the economy not ten times better today instead of ten times worse?

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Wednesday, October 25, 2023

The Point of No "Return" in Pricing

Beer sales might be a strange way to talk about the point of no "return" when it comes to inflationary pressures. But here I am talking about it.

The thing is, during times like these when prices are rising faster than paychecks and there seems to be no end in sight at the register for paying more for just about everything, many businesses get accused of price gouging.

In the eyes of some consumers, there must be something shady going on here.

And I will admit, sometimes it certainly feels that way. Like how convenient it always seems to be that right before a weekend or especially a holiday weekend, gas prices suddenly shoot up. And I feel that way even though I understand certain macroeconomic things that factor into why that happens—and it has nothing to do with price gouging.

Inflation is also not a product of or a result of price gouging.

The simple fact of the matter is that when inflation hits, it hits everyone. And businesses are not immune to it any more than anyone else is. The cost of raw materials goes up. The cost of utilities to run the machines go up. The cost of wages possibly goes up. The cost to transport finished product goes up. Every aspect of the cost of running the business goes up.

And in order to maintain their margins and remain profitable, so does the cost they sell their products for go up.

But like most things, there is a limit here. There is only so much a customer will pay for something before they finally decide it costs too much and leave it on the shelf. This is the point of no "return" on the prospect of raising prices to protect margins.

In other words, at some point the customer will simply refuse to pay the higher price such as what happened with beer maker Heineken. They raised prices enough that consumers finally said no, and their sales dropped over 4% in the last quarter as a result.

Granted, there are certain things that consumers have a need for regardless of how much it costs. Certain foods, for example. Gas for the car. But even on those two things there are certain things that consumers we can do to curb costs. 

They really don't have us by the balls at the end of the day as much as we may want to believe that.

Consumers still have the power to send a message, and many do. When egg prices hit $4 and $5 per dozen, I simply stopped eating eggs. And did so for 3-months. And I don't think I was the only one, because one thing I observed when I went into the grocery stores was that eggs were always fully stocked.

People were not buying them. Demand for eggs plummeted. Egg prices came back down. 

Granted, the costs driving the prices up didn't change. In fact, because inflation is far from done, costs actually continued to rise. So, now the businesses have to make a decision. Either allow product to rot on the shelves and not get paid anything for it or sell it cheaper and suffer through a period of lower margins.

And that's exactly what you are seeing. More and more businesses are reporting lower sales numbers due to higher prices but are also reporting lower margins. Many are saying, "We have simply reached a point where we can no longer afford to raise prices and stay afloat even if we lose money or experience lower margins on every sale."

Heineken, as an example, knows that the more it continues to raise prices in order to compensate for higher production costs, the more customers they will likely lose as a result. It's a no-win situation. 

So, as much as we like to think that the companies are simply trying to take advantage of us, the reality is that they're not. In fact, they cannot. Especially in areas where there are alternative options for consumers to choose.

There is a flip side here, as there always tends to be, and that's that consumers pulling back and saying no actually helps to curb inflation. It weakens demand and with less money pouring into the economy, suddenly things slow down economically, which is a primary ingredient to combatting inflation.

There may be a short period in between all of this before inflation really comes down when businesses may hold certain prices to try to recoup what they lost when margins were lower. But even that will be short-lived. Because consumers do see the news. If they see that inflation as a whole is waning but prices aren't coming down, there will be backlash for that.

As it has always been said in business, the markets will charge what the markets are willing to bear. And when it comes to that, there is a point of no return. There is a point at which consumers will ultimately decide what prices should be. And businesses will either have to pay attention or risk losing their business.

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Saturday, September 30, 2023

Even the Democrats Themselves Aren't Falling For Bidenomics

It would seem that not only is the Biden/Harris administration continuing to pursue this fantasy of glowing economic policy they call Bidenomics, but they are also doubling down on it. They really believe that all of their comparisons to purposely monikered Maganomics is true.

But of course, Americans are not buying it. And the reason is simple. Because Americans both experienced Trump's economy and are now living in Biden's.

Naysayers of Trump can say what they want about Trump as a president in general. Even outwardly they can tell their friends, "Things are much better now economically." But behind the scenes and behind closed doors, as they sift through their utility bills and monitor their stock accounts and see directly the dwindling values of every dollar they earn, penny after penny being siphoned away by the higher cost of everything, the truth simply cannot be denied.

Bidenomics does not work. And it is definitely not working for the hard-working Americans it wants to reach to prove that it does.

The problem is that while you can easily tell a lie, there has to be at least some sense that it can be true in order to sell it. Take fiction. Especially fantasy, horror and science fiction. There is something that a writer must do in order to convince readers, even for just a moment, that ghosts and goblins and dragons do actually exist.

Suspend their disbelief.

When it comes to the economy, one look at one's grocery tab and it's all bets off. Every trip to the gas pump, and it's an instant yanking back to the reality that the dragon is just a thing created out of a wild imagination.

You simply cannot, by any stretch of the imagination try to sell a booming economy when the people living it can't see it or feel it or touch it in some way.

And the democrat party who badly wants to win a reelection knows it's a bad idea, and through backchannels, many prominent democrats are urging the White House to ditch it. Or to at least reframe it. 

"The voters aren't buying it," is what they are essentially saying. And if you (the Biden/Harris administration) keep on trying to sell it, the voters are going to rightly wonder what else you might be lying about. Your entire presidency becomes open to criticism, deeper examination and scrutiny.

Even from your own side. And maybe particularly so.

Because not only do democrats want to win. They want to be right. They want to be able to prove that they have the better ideas and can offer the best alternative in real solutions. Not that it's their favorite thing to do, but dammit they want to be able to say, "See? I told you so."

Bidenomics is falling flat. As a policy, as a plan, as a campaign slogan. It's just bad for everyone and especially bad for the person behind it who can't prove it to be anything more than a simple man dressed in a zippered dragon costume.

And by the way, how do you even reframe it? Why would you even necessarily want to? What? Just to make the lie sound a little better? A little more believable?

Why not just be straight with the American people and admit, "We messed it up," and then tell the American people what you got wrong and how you plan to actually fix it? It's like the border crisis issue that everyone knows is real. You will never gain the trust of the American people by outright lying to them.

Especially considering people are about to be fed up if they aren't already. We had to suffer through the 2-years of shutdowns during the Covid pandemic, having our lives entirely upended and halted, only to come out of it with new problems to face regarding our lives and money. And wait, it's not over. A recession may soon be coming, and that's just going to mean more months and months of economic pain.

Perhaps the Biden/Harris administration simply feel they've got this election in the bag. If it's down to them vs. Trump it's a shoe-in. And Lord knows they've done their very best to try to make Trump out to be the villain of all villains—a villain to make even the worst enemy of Gotham City look like a friendly circus clown with just a little benign nervous tick.

But even with that effort, is the public at large buying into it? Polls indicate maybe not. And just like the earlier example of people outwardly saying the economy is fine, behind closed doors when it comes to Trump, people know deep down they are being played for fools. They know there's a lot more going on behind the scenes that so much energy is being spent on someone they (the democrats) insist is no threat to their power.

In other words, there's no reason to try to get rid of Trump if the left thinks he's such bad news no one could even remotely consider him to be a serious candidate for the other side. Or even independents.

And speaking of polls, that's the other problem of course with Bidenomics. On the very issue Bidenomics is trying to sell is great, all the polls clearly show that the economy is one of Biden's worst performances. No one is buying it. Not even democrats. 

What's worse is that it does just the opposite of what I think the democrats want it to do. That is to put the economy front and center for the American people to think about every time they say it. Because again, it just serves as a constant reminder that the economy is not as good as they say it is, is not recovering at the fast pace they want people to believe, and worse—like with the border crisis—if you don't even know it's a problem how do we ever make it right?

How do we trust you have the goods to make it right?

Will the Biden/Harris administration ditch the slogan? Probably not. And part of the reason for that goes into something a bit deeper than the problems we face with the economy and frankly with every other serious issue facing America today.

Who is actually in charge?

Is it a single person? Is it a collective? Has the bureaucracy finally tendered the reigns of the big white chariot in Washington? One can never know. But the one thing we do know is that whenever we find ourselves in a situation where there are too many chiefs in the room, all goes haywire very quickly, one hand doesn't know what the other hand is doing, too many hands are fighting for the final say, and nothing of value ever gets accomplished. 

And of course, with so many chiefs, not a single one of them thinks there's a problem that needs to be solved. And you can shout the problem as loud as you want, but the chiefs aren't listening. They can't hear you. And the Biden/Harris administration can't hear you. The American people. Even their own party. 

They are simply too busy focusing on winning than anything else. For them, it is all that matters. Meanwhile, as far as Bidenomics goes? Well, you're just going to have to take their word for it.

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Monday, May 15, 2023

A Couple of Ways to Deal with This Inflation

While it is true that the April 2023 inflation numbers dipped to 4.9%—still relatively high—it's much better than when inflation hit its peak of 9.1% back in June of 2022. So, while the rate hikes that the Fed began a little over a year ago seem to be helping curb consumer costs a bit, we're not out of the woods yet and things still cost more.

Mortgages, for example, jumped from 2.6% to around 6.3% for an average 30-year fixed rate loan, and credit card interest has jumped to a record average of around 21%.

There is also the question of whether or not we may still see a recession. Something we have not seen yet, but most economists would suggest that between inflation and rising interest rates, it may be sure to come despite any effort by anyone to try to avoid it. And while a recession is not good, and it's not the end of the world, it would not come without some additional pain as layoffs would likely occur, further stressing American's bottom lines.

On the flip side of this, as rates have risen, so have offered interest rates on certain bank accounts. Savers are getting the biggest bang for their bucks, benefiting the most from banks that offer so-called high yield savings accounts. So, looking into some of them, especially online, may be worth looking into if you have some money tucked away somewhere not getting the best rates. It would be worth the time to shop around as well since not all high interest banks are good.

Ally Bank for example, offers a 3.75% current rate, and CD offerings are northward of 4.5%. That's quite a bit more than the national average of 0.39% even if 3.75% still doesn't come near to beating inflation, a key factor when determining how to get the best bang for your buck.

Capital One also offers 3.75%. Barclays is giving 4%. And there are several others. You can go online and do a quick search to find the best rates and do some bank comparisons.

Beyond that, you really have to know your prices when you shop, and you have to be quite a bit more vigilant about shopping around, even visiting multiple stores to get the best deals on most things—especially food and common household items.

Make shopping lists, maintain a good inventory, and stock up on good deals as often as possible. This will also help to determine where you shop based on who has the best price so you don't have to visit multiple stores all at once. When inflation is tugging at your purse strings, every penny counts more than ever.

Of course, a money related post from me would never be complete without mentioning investing. Dividends are a great way to create new money—it is literally income. And besides, you should be invested anyway. If you are not familiar with investing, a very valuable book to read, and well worth the time and money, would be The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. Creating money from money you already earned is a great way to at least hedge against rising costs.

One thing taking a significant bite out of people's pockets is also the cost of gas and diesel. Why not try to earn some cash back on some of that, and the Upside app lets you do just that. Plus, they also offer cash back on certain grocery stores and restaurants. I have used this app for some time and I have to tell you the savings do add up—and again, every penny counts.

On top of that, doing everything you can to reduce debt at a time like this is paramount. As I mentioned earlier, credit card rates are tipping the scales at 21%. Not only should you pay some of that debt off to save pennies, but you should also be less inclined to use credit to offset expenses caused by inflation. Borrowing when rates are higher, and inflation is through the roof is a good way to compound the problem. So, simply don't do it.

While it may be a more difficult thing to accomplish, provided your company is not laying people off or otherwise enduring other struggles financially, this may be a good time to ask your boss for a raise. You'll want to do some analysis so you can present a reasonable proposal, but the fact is that businesses already understand the impact of inflation on their bottom lines and won't hesitate to raise prices to help get through it. You are as much well within your right to ask for more as they are.

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