A Potential Trade War Explained Through a Really Stupid Analogy

Life throws you strange curveballs sometimes, but mostly you just roll with it, you know. Until you start to catch on that things quite possibly aren't the way they ought to be.

Take my buddy who has me over for dinner all the time. Great food, warm company. Yet, every single time he hands me a bill for $30 after the meal. It's always been this way. Although, I will admit, even though I have always just gone along with it, for years it always left me a bit flabbergasted. Especially considering when he eats at my place, he's treated to a free meal.

So naturally, one day I asked him about it. He casually explained, "It's just the cost of having dinner at my house." And sure, he's a phenomenal cook, so I let it slide. But after dozens of $30 dinners, I couldn't hold back anymore. I finally said, "But when you come over to my house for dinner, I don't charge you a dime!"

He shrugged and said, "That's just the deal. You eat in my house, you pay. I eat in your house, I pay nothing."

Oh really? So, I replied, "Alright, fine. Fair enough. From now on, I'm charging you $15 for dinner at my place."

Cue absolute chaos. He slammed the table, his face turned red, and he shouted that he'd burn my house down if I dared charge him. "That's it!" he roared. "If you're going to charge me $15, then I'm raising my price to $45. Either I keep eating for free, or we're going to have some serious issues!"

Enter the ye olde record scratch here.

Does this sound familiar? That's how tariffs play out on the world stage. The United States is simply tired of footing the bill while others dine on the house. Is it coming into focus now? Or do we need another analogy? 

Dinner's on me. Well, so long as you give me $15 or until we renegotiate the terms of our dinner arrangements. 

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© 2025 Jim Bauer

What About Retirees? Is Waiting for the Market Rebound Sage Advice?

When it comes to many things in life, there's always a caveat. And this week's turmoil in the stock market is no exception. Portfolios across every sector have taken a massive hit, and while it's sensible advice to urge people not to panic, not to sell, and to ride out the storm while taking advantage of dips for potential long-term gains, context matters. That's easy enough for someone like me—a 51-year-old with years ahead of me before I'll be fully (or even mostly) reliant on these funds in retirement—to say.

For those with time on their side, all the standard wisdom applies. Don't sell anything, stay the course, and consider increasing contribution percentages to retirement accounts like 401ks. This advice, grounded in years of experience navigating market cycles, acknowledges that while downturns are tough, markets have always historically rebounded—not just to prior levels, but to new highs beyond the point of the initial decline.

However, this advice is tailored to those still working or those not yet needing to draw on their investments. They have the benefit of time to weather short term losses on paper and emerge stronger on the other side.

But what about retirees, like grandad, who are already drawing on their funds? For them, it's a different story. Ideally, much of their money would have already been shifted from stocks into less volatile options like annuities, bonds, or other fixed-income investments. Still, many retirees leave a significant portion of their portfolios in the market, and they face a much harder road—they don't have the luxury of time to simply wait out the storm.

It hasn't always been this way. Over the last half-century, things have shifted dramatically—retirements today are increasingly tied to the stock market. With traditional pensions largely a thing of the past, most people now rely heavily on the money they've earned and saved, money that's directly linked to the market's performance. And while history shows that markets typically perform well over time, there are moments when of course they don't, even if they are just short-term blips. 

Beyond those already in their retirement years, my heart goes out most who are on the cusp of retiring. Think of the many baby boomers who are just now reaching this pivotal moment, preparing to leave the workforce. They face some of the toughest decisions right now, caught in the middle of the market's turmoil. Many haven't yet transitioned their portfolios into less volatile investments, and with their portfolios' current diminished value, making that shift now isn't an attractive option.

Several years may have just been added to their time at work.

This situation, however, presents a valuable opportunity for those who still have ample time ahead to start thinking more strategically about their retirements. It's an ideal moment to begin crafting better plans, especially by considering contingencies. For instance, how would you navigate the scenario if the markets fail to cooperate, whether just before you are set to retire or even after you've already entered retirement?

Planning for contingencies is a fundamental part of life, and retirement should be no exception. In fact, this becomes especially critical in retirement, where options to bridge financial gaps are more limited, making careful preparation all the more essential.

One prudent strategy to consider is to allocate at least three years' worth of anticipated retirement income into investments outside of the stock market. Think of it as a retirement emergency fund, providing a cushion and the flexibility to weather market downturns without having to make hasty, unfavorable decisions.

This one small consideration allows you to protect your overall retirement plan, reducing the short-term impact of market volatility and safeguarding your long-term financial outlook.

Imagine those nearing retirement right now, caught in the midst of this steep market downturn. If a three-year retirement emergency fund were already in place, their plans wouldn't be as heavily influenced by current market conditions. Instead, the fund would provide them with the flexibility and breathing room needed for markets to stabilize, allowing their retirement goals to remain on track.

No matter where someone stands, the game of life is always evolving. That's why I have never been a fan of the "set it and forget it" approach. Life doesn't ever follow a straight line—it requires flexibility, the ability to pivot, and to zigzag when necessary. 

Again, my thoughts go out to those facing tough decisions right now—they're the ones we often don't think about when the markets give you reason to gulp very hard—potentially having to alter their plans, especially those who no longer have the option to make broader adjustments. It's why I so strongly advocate for careful and thoughtful planning in advance. Moments like this serve as invaluable reminders of the importance of preparation, offering opportunities for reflection and encouraging people to consider their strategies more critically.

Too often we fall into the trap of oversimplifying: "If you just do X, everything will fall into place." But more often than not, reality is more nuanced. This truth becomes glaringly apparent during moments like these, when oversimplified approaches reveal their limitations.

For example, take the age-old idea that if all you do is put everything into an S&P 500 tracking fund, you will retire a millionaire, and everything will work itself out. It's mostly true. But today, for those who are expecting those funds to be there, they now have less funds for that reality to hold true right now. In this exact moment.

This is one of the moments when you have to be able to zigzag. Because again, such thinking only holds true if you have the luxury of time for the idea to reach its full potential to be true. That time is before, when you're actively working toward retirement, not approaching it or already navigating its complexities.

That's the caveat to all of the other otherwise sound advice about what to do when the markets decide to go south.

This advice can't offer much to help anyone caught up in the current market downturn. But it can be helpful to anyone currently planning their retirements, because the markets will rebound, just like they always do, but eventually, like the markets also always do, they will also retract.

Like the things I write about or the way I write about them? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them. You can also follow me X at @jimbauer601. Want to support this blog and help to keep valuable posts and commentary coming? Check out my Amazon affiliate link. Any support is always greatly appreciated.

© 2025 Jim Bauer

How About American Interests Over Political Games for Once?

Sometimes my critiques of Democrats leave readers guessing—am I rooting for them or scolding them from a place of support? Neither. My goal is to highlight where they are going wrong, why their ideas miss the mark with the masses, and just how far off the rails their positions have become. 

Let's face it. Liberal ideology has gone off the deep end, and it's only getting stranger. Just when you think it can't, they hit you with a "hold my beer" moment. And oh, there's always more.

For me, the growing political divide today is unsettling. While clashes and disagreements have always been part of the process, we've reached a point of absolute "no compromise," and that's deeply concerning. How can we ever hope to find common ground and make progress?

Consider the Democrats' dramatic shift on border security and protectionism when Trump ran for president—positions they once championed but abandoned as soon as Trump adopted them. You'd think they could have stayed consistent on these issues, but instead they flipped entirely. Sure, many Republicans have also shifted their stance on these things, being more open to cheaper labor and free trade and globalization, but let's not forget that many Democrat voters crossed over to support Trump, likely because of these very issues.

If you've been with me for a while—and many of you have—you know where I stand. I've always supported secure borders and protectionism, even when it meant challenging my own party. To me, these are just common sense. We need strong borders, we need to protect American jobs, and we must ensure we can produce what we need for our safety and national security. I've been crystal clear on that.

This brings me back to the troubling divide we face. On secure borders and protecting American jobs, you'd think we'd finally found common ground—even unions are backing Trump's push to make more things here in the U.S. Yet, here we are, stuck in disagreement. Democrats, who rallied for these causes for decades, suddenly want no part of these issues, and we're back to square one, bickering endlessly and stalling progress.

I'm not rooting for Democrats to win. Not hardly. I disagree with over 75% of their positions. They often seem irrational, failing to think through the consequences of their actions. When they blindly push through their agenda, bad outcomes follow—that's just reality. We've seen it firsthand and lived through the fallout of their poor decision making.

I simply want a more democratic approach. When we finally agree on something, it's a rare chance to come together, hash out the details, and even celebrate the moment.

I don't believe Republicans have all the right ideas, just as I don't think Democrats have all the wrong ones. What truly serves the American people is compromise—solutions that benefit us all, not just political outcomes.

My criticism of Democrats isn't about elections or wanting them to win at the polls. It's about urging them to listen to the American people—to the majority voice that truly matters. Being misaligned on every issue feels deliberate, and if that's the case, it undermines American interests and serves no real purpose.

I'm highlighting just how disconnected Democrats are now from The People—a disconnect that hurts us and shifts the focus away from what truly matters. Hopefully, I've managed to clear the air on that. We can never expect to agree on everything. But we should be able to at least sometimes agree on something.

Like the way I write or the things I write about? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them. You can also follow me on X at @jimbauer601. Need computer gadgets and want to help support this page? Check out my Amazon link for some good buys.

© 2025 Jim Bauer

Tesla's Loss, Rivian's Gain?

Not long ago I thought that Donald Trump could present a boon for Rivian. But with all the angst against Tesla right now, my perspective on why that might be has shifted a bit—it's clear there's more at play than I initially anticipated. And frankly, who could have seen any of this coming?

Tesla is literally on fire.

That said, this isn't some seismic event, so it's not going to cause me to change my position on Rivian for the long term, nor do I think it potentially knocks Tesla out of the game. Sure, the left right now is in a tizzy over Elon Musk's presence in the White House running DOGE, but when heat gets applied to businesses, no matter who's applying the heat, it tends to be fleeting. Boycotts and protests, no matter how loud, usually fizzle out over time.

Take the Bud Light-Dylan Mulvaney controversy. It's mostly in the rearview mirror now. While some customers haven't come back, the stigma has cooled considerably. Even Kid Rock who once made headlines by shooting up a case of Bud Light, now says, "It's okay to drink Bud Light again." 

That's not to say there's no lingering impact. Yuengling, for instance, has seen a notable surge in popularity, likely fueled by those still upset with Bud Light, aiding their push into new markets.

Like some beer drinkers may have traded out of Bud Light and into Yuengling and other beers, Tesla owners are reportedly trading in their EVs at unprecedented rates—not for gas guzzlers, but for other electric vehicles from legacy automakers, and more interestingly, from startups like Rivian.

By the way, Rivian's lineup is already impressive, and with more affordable models on the horizon like the mid-size R2 SUV and the R3 crossover hatchback, they're poised to attract a whole new wave of customers.

Sooner or later, the protests targeting Elon Musk will lose momentum. But, as with the Bud Light controversy, scars may linger after the dust settles. This creates a chance for others to step in, capture interest, and expand their market share. 

As the saying goes, one man's misfortune can pave the way for another man's gain. My long-term outlook for Rivian remains unchanged, and I'm holding steady on my position. Still, it'll be worth watching to see if Rivian capitalizes on the moment while Tesla's negative hype is still buzzing.

Like the things I write about or the way I write about them? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them.

© 2025 Jim Bauer

You may also want to read:

Ford's Long Road: Why its Consistency Keeps me Invested
What's Next for Rivian Stock?
The Cost of Being Right
Tesla Could Become a Literal Powerhouse, But Not in the Car Market

Dollar General's Dirty Secret: It's NOT Inflation

Is Dollar General really a barometer for consumer sentiment? Sure, it's a retail giant with 20,000 stores and plenty of shoppers. But can it really pin its struggles on inflation and Trump-era tariffs?

The reality is that these stores have been virtual glorified junkyards for years. Customers might simply be fed up with navigating cluttered aisles and rummaging through disorganized piles of merchandise.

Management seems indifferent, and it shows. It's clearly a Dollar General culture, because every store looks exactly like the other. Consistency is one thing, but does every store have to look like a disaster zone? One can only assume that chaos is part of their literal brand strategy.

I mean, think about it. A brand new Dollar General opened up in our area—a fresh build from the ground up. Yet, on day one, it looked like it had always been there, neglected for decades: dirty floors, scattered products, unopened bins clogging the aisles.

It was remarkable—a deliberate effort, no doubt. This store layout screamed, loud and clear, "This is how we do things."

Beyond all of that, can anyone honestly claim Dollar General offers great prices? Sure, there are occasional deals, as with any store, but more often than not, their prices can be easily undercut on nearly every product.

If they had great deals, believe me, I'd walk out of there with bags full instead of just a couple of items. That never happens. 

Isn't the whole premise of Dollar General about saving money? In that sense, perhaps inflation does play a role. As wallets have tightened, shoppers simply become more conscious of what they are actually paying for things. Suddenly as buying power gets pushed to the brink, people walk into a Dollar General more aware than ever before and start thinking, "Wait a second—something's off."

Dollar General has been dodging accountability for years, pointing fingers instead of looking inward for solutions as customers drift away. That's part of their problem as much as anything is, really.

It makes you wonder—has the CEO ever stepped foot in one of those stores? And if he has, what's his reaction? "Fantastic work. This is exactly what customers want." Really? If Dollar General wants a turnaround, step one is simple: clean up the stores! Create a shopping experience that's pleasant, not frustrating. Do that, and maybe customers won't even mind the higher prices.

Take a page from Culver's or Chick-Fil-A, even though they operate an entirely different business. They're not the cheapest options in fast food, but they win with quality, service, and clean restaurants. It's clear they care about their business and their customer experience. Presentation matters.

I've said the same about Burger King. The issue isn't the food—it's the filthy, poorly managed restaurants that make customers cringe the moment they step inside.

If you want to win customers back, clean up your act—literally. An exciting new sandwich won't cut it if people dread walking in to get it.

This brings us back to Dollar General. The chaos isn't a fluke; it's clearly baked into their culture. How else could every single store in the chain achieve the same level of disarray? Not one manager, anywhere, thinks to break the mold?

I've joked that if I managed a Dollar General, my first move would be to clean, organize, and properly staff the store. Their first move? Fire me for breaking their "standard operating procedure."

It's not inflation, guys. Your stores are a freaking disaster!

Like the things I write about or the way I write about them? Follow me on my Facebook page to keep up with the latest writings wherever I may write them.

© 2025 Jim Bauer

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Can Burger King Restore the Brand?

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