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Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Ford's Recent Pullback A Hiccup

WILL I SELL MY FORD SHARES NOW THAT ITS STOCK HAS RECENTLY TUMBLED? The simple answer is no. Absolutely not. Yes, they reported less in earnings in 2017 than they expected, and yes, they lowered their guidance for 2018, which sort of signals for any investor that the stock is going to enjoy another year of basically sideways trading.

A TRADING PATTERN THAT HAS PLAGUED THIS COMPANY FOR A VERY LONG TIME.

But all of the fundamental factors remain solid for Ford, and therefore I can see no reason to be a seller of the stock. There is going to come a time when investors finally get it, and when that day comes the stock will make a tailwind comeback that will be very profitable for anyone who has taken advantage of the long term sideways trend, and even the recent short term pullback in share value.

Plus, when you consider that the company is still turning a profit, and is making very good inroads in continuing to improve its brand image, and trades at roughly just 11 times earnings, I think the shares are not necessarily cheap. But they are trading at what I think is a discount to the real value of the stock.

AND SO THAT CONTINUES TO LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT FORD STOCK IS STILL A BUY AT THESE LEVELS.

At the end of the day when it comes to stocks, and your decision to buy, you really need to look at the balance sheets and dig deep into the earnings reports they provide, and listen carefully to what the CEOs of these companies see as the future of the company. Everything from Ford indicates that they are very forward thinking, and I think that's a good thing. And sometimes you have to read between the lines a little bit when investors react to certain announcements.

If Apple reports 100,000 less iPhones sell than expected the stock tanks even though they may have still sold a bucket ton of iPhones. And sometimes a company reports stellar news, like IBM reporting breaking a 23-quarter streak of declining revenue only to see its shares drop by 4%.

Investors don't always get it. Not the insider ones at least. But if you know what your stock's real value is, it matters little in the short term how investors react to its performance. You just have to plug along on Main Street and keep adding shares until the day comes—and it usually does eventually—that Wall Street catches up to the reality.

Ford stock will be no different. Besides, until we are otherwise told, it still also yields a hefty 6% dividend while you wait.

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